FORECAST EVALUATION FOR MULTIVARIATE TIME-SERIES MODELS: THE U.S. CATTLE MARKET

A set of rigorous diagnostic techniques is used to evaluate the forecasting performance of five multivariate time-series models for the U.S. cattle sector. The root-mean-squared-error criterion along with an evaluation of the rankings of forecast errors reveals that the Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) and the unrestricted VAR (UVAR) models generate forecasts which are superior to both a restricted VAR (RVAR) and a vector autoregressive moving-average (VARMA) model. Two methods for calculating a test evaluating the ability to forecast directional changes are implemented. The BVAR models and the UVAR model unambiguously outperform the VARMA model in the forecasting directional changeLivestock Production/Industries,

Evaluating Labor Productivity in Food Retailing

New store formats including competition from supercenters (driven by Wal-Mart), warehouse clubs, and mass merchandisers have emerged as a major threat to traditional grocery chains. A key issue in the food retailing sector is to understand how the earnings of employees respond to the evolution of new retail store formats and store organizational characteristics. The elasticity of complementarity for food retailers measures how changes in store size affect use of full-time and part-time employees. The evidence for constant returns to scale suggests that the Hicks elasticity of complementarity is the appropriate measure to assess input substitutability for food retailers. As store size increases the marginal value of labor rises and firms hire more part-time employees, along with a smaller increase in full-time workers.elasticity of complementarity, employee compensation, food retailing, inverse price elasticities, Agribusiness, Labor and Human Capital,

Evaluating Labor Productivity in Food Retailing

Competition from new store formats including supercenters, warehouse clubs, and mass merchandisers has emerged as a major threat to traditional grocery chains. A primary objective of this paper is to understand how the store-level performance is related to the workforce composition of full-time and part-time employees chosen by the food retailer along with benefits and incentives provided to employees. The elasticity of complementarity for food retailers measures how changes in store size affect use of full-time and part-time employees. Larger store size increases the marginal value of labor, and firm hiring decisions shift to expanded use of part-time employees.elasticity of complementarity, employee compensation, food retailing, inverse price elasticities, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Labor and Human Capital, Productivity Analysis,

PROMOTING FARM SAFETY WITH ECONOMIC AND MANAGERIAL INCENTIVES

The ex ante marginal values of management strategies for farm producers facing significant exposures to accident risks is assessed. A probit model describing the factors influencing the probability of a farm accident is estimated jointly with an ordered probit model for the severity of the accident.Farm Management,

Testing Nonlinear Logit Models of Performance Effectiveness Ratings: Cooperative Extension and Organic Farmers

Survey evidence from U.S. organic farmers is evaluated to identify the factors influencing effectiveness ratings of cooperative extension advisors by organic farmers. A nonlinear logit model is specified for the ratings provided by organic producers, and critical demographic and management factors that influence the ratings are identified. The impact of the organic farmers’ status in transitioning to organic production is highlighted. The results indicate that part-time, newer adopters of organic farming methods are more likely to rate extension service providers as effective providers of information. Scenarios to predict extension effectiveness when interacting with specific groups of organic farmers are developed.cooperative extension, nonlinear logit model, organic farming, performance ratings, Agribusiness, Farm Management, Productivity Analysis, C25, Q16, Q01,

Assessing the Technical and Allocative Efficiency of Marketing Decisions by U.S. Organic Producers

We develop measures of technical and allocative efficiency of producers in marketing certified organic products. A stochastic output distance frontier and the associated revenue share equations are estimated using comprehensive U.S. data on certified organic producers. Farm-level measures of technical efficiency are calculated and factors which enhance performance are identified. Factors that systematically influence allocative efficiency are assessed. The revenue mix of organic producers is systematically inefficient as both male and female producers rely too heavily on revenue from organic markets relative to conventional outlets.organic farming, stochastic frontier, technical efficiency, allocative efficiency, Farm Management, Marketing, D21, C31, Q01,

Technical Efficiency of U.S. Organic Farmers: The Complementary Roles of Soil Management Techniques and Farm Experience

Agricultural policymakers place increasing emphasis on developing efficiency measures for organic producers in order to evaluate regulatory strategies and evolving organic market conditions. We develop technical efficiency measures for U.S. organic farmers using a stochastic production frontier. Farm decisions about acquiring and managing organic soil materials from on-farm and local sources are incorporated into the technical efficiency measure. Productivity differences between newer entrants to organic farming and more experienced producers are estimated in order to isolate the impact of learning and management expertise on farm-level technical efficiency.organic farming, frontier production function, soil organic matter, performance measurement, technical efficiency, Farm Management,

WHOLESALER MARKUP DECISIONS UNDER DEMAND UNCERTAINTY

We examine consistency with economic theory of markup decisions for a risk averse firm facing demand uncertainty. We derive testable comparative static results that describe the influence on the markup of expected demand, demand uncertainty, average variable costs and exogenous demand shifters. We test the model using data from the wholesale market for organic lettuce. Our results demonstrated that risk averse wholesalers raise markups as expected demand increases and reduce them as uncertainty increases.risk aversion, marketing margins, comparative statics, organics, Demand and Price Analysis, Risk and Uncertainty,

BENCHMARKING ORGANIZATIONAL PERFORMANCE OF UNIVERSITY EXTENSION: A STOCHASTIC FRONTIER APPROACH

A stochastic frontier model is used to explain the performance evaluation of U.S. university extension providers by organic producers. The model makes explicit the nonmanagerial factors that influence both performance ratings and performance efficiency, defined as achieving a rating as close to the "best" rating as possible. Results indicate that extension agents are performing at relatively high mean efficiency of 0.92, but that the average rating is relatively low at 2.66 on a four-point scale. Several sources of potential bias in ratings are identified as a way for managers to more accurately conduct individual performance assessments. Programmatic changes to emphasize more collaborative research and training are suggested by the positive effects on performance efficiency associated with farmer research commitment and production problem severity.Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,

PROMOTING SUSTAINABLE INSECT MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES: LEARNING FROM ORGANIC FARMERS

Organic farmers are dependent on alternative, biology-based insect control methods and are innovative in their on-farm experimentation with new strategies. By understanding the factors that influence the insect management portfolio chosen by organic farmers, research and education programs to promote sustainable insect management practices for all farmers may be devised. A negative binomial model of the factors influencing the number of alternative practices adopted is applied to survey data from American organic farmers. It is found that college-educated farmers with smaller acreages, more than half their acreage in horticultural production, and extensive experience with organic production have the greatest diversity in their insect management portfolios. There is a strong indication that on a regional basis, uncertainty over institutional and infrastructure support for organic agriculture results in the adoption of more strategies.insect management, negative binomial model, organic farming, technology adoption, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management,