Hedging Effectiveness of Constant and Time Varying Hedge Ratio in Indian Stock and Commodity Futures Markets

This paper examines hedging effectiveness of futures contract on a financial asset and commodities in Indian markets. In an emerging market context like India, the growth of capital and commodity futures market would depend on effectiveness of derivatives in managing risk. For managing risk, understanding optimal hedge ratio is critical for devising effective hedging strategy. We estimate dynamic and constant hedge ratio for S&P CNX Nifty index futures, Gold futures and Soybean futures. Various models (OLS, VAR, and VECM) are used to estimate constant hedge ratio. To estimate dynamic hedge ratios, we use VAR-MGARCH. We compare in-sample and out-of-sample performance of these models in reducing portfolio risk. It is found that in most of the cases, VAR-MGARCH model estimates of time varying hedge ratio provide highest variance reduction as compared to hedges based on constant hedge ratio. Our results are consistent with findings of Myers (1991), Baillie and Myers (1991), Park and Switzer (1995a,b), Lypny and Powella (1998), Kavussanos and Nomikos (2000), Yang (2001), and Floros and Vougas (2006).

Overnight Stock Returns and Time-varying Correlations

Time-varying correlation of the stock market returns across countries in the context of international investments has been well researched in the literature in last few years. It has also been recognized that there is “volatility effect in correlation”, as the stock return correlations tend to rise on high-volatility days. Recent research has however, highlighted the pitfalls of using sample correlation for comparison, particularly when the conditional volatility across samples is not same. It has been shown that the sample correlation of two independent random variables is expected to rise when the conditional volatility of the variables is high and vice-versa, even if the unconditional correlation between them is constant. Empirically, it has been long well known that the overnight (closed-market) stock returns are less volatile than the open-market returns. Making use of this regularity, we test whether the stock returns correlation are higher during trading or non-trading hours. Using five years’ daily returns of 30 constituent stocks of Sensitive Index (Sensex) of The Stock Exchange, Mumbai, we find that almost all the pair-wise closed market stock return correlations are higher than the open market correlations despite lower volatility of the closed market returns. These results are further reinforced after using the univariate and bivariate conditional volatility models. Higher closed market stock return correlations are consistent with the possibility that information, which arrives during non-trading, is more on common factors. Arrival of information on common factors would imply higher stock return correlations during non-trading hours. This has implication for managing risks associated with any stock portfolio, as the diversification benefits might be over-estimated for overnight positions and under-estimated during trading hours if daily close-to-close returns are used to estimate variance-covariance matrix.

Towards Reform of Land Acquisition Framework in India

We bring out the fundamental and more important problems with the current framework of land acquisition in India, regulations on land and the functioning of land markets. We argue that reform is overdue and the current framework would be unsustainable in a democracy that is India. Current land prices are highly distorted owing largely to regulatory constraints and the process of takings. Land acquisition more than any other factor is the most important constraint on development and especially in infrastructure development. We bring out the core elements of the reform – the need to define “public purpose” ex-ante for compulsory acquisition of land, the measures that would allow the market price of land to play its correct role, and the approach to valuation. We also argue for an independent valuer when compulsory taking is involved and methods of valuation to ensure that the land owner including the farmer gets the correct value for this land in both compulsory acquisition and in voluntary sale. We also argue the need for a parallel non-compulsory framework for acquisition and develop the key elements of the same. We also bring out alternatives to physical acquisition of land especially in the context of infrastructure development in central places.

The Question of Land and Infrastructure Development in India: Urgently Required Reforms for Fairness and Infrastructural Development

Land in India is problematic largely because of archaic and perverse provisions in the practice and the law. The new Land Acquisition Amendment Bill does go some way to correct the anti-democratic and imperial provisions of the old 1894 Act. Other regulatory restraints stand in the way of fair compensation to sellers whether the deal is a sale or an acquisition using eminent domain. Urban planning being based on the “Ricardian Model” and on top of asymmetrically applied regulatory constraints further depresses the benefit to land owners. As a result very little land is obtainable without dispute and high risk for infrastructure development. In this paper we provide an analytical critique of the law and restrictions as also of the framework of urban planning and provide a justification for why major change is required in the approach to land markets, land acquisition and urban planning. We also provide the key elements of a reformed approach that can create a win-win framework for development. We also present our suggestions on how the proposed Amendment to the Land Acquisition Act can be changed to make the Act functional and remove the residual perversities therein.

Price Impact of Block Trades and Price Behavior Surrounding Block Trades in Indian Capital Market

We analyze the permanent (information effect) and temporary (liquidity effect) impact of block trades transacted in the National Stock Exchange of India. Block trades are identified using multiple criteria based on trade value and trade volume. Overall, the permanent price impact is more for block purchases than for block sales indicating that block purchases are more informative than block sales, which may be motivated by liquidity need. Unlike in other markets, we observe that the temporary impact is greater than the permanent impact in case of block purchase. We classify the block trades as All-or-None (AON) and Not-AON trades depending on the number of transactions through which a block order is executed. As expected, the price impact is higher for Not-AON trades as compared to AON trades (which can be assumed to be pre-negotiated trades). Further, arrival of multiple block trades increases market confidence on the information. The permanent price impact is higher for days where there are more than one block trade of similar nature than for days with only one block trade. To analyze the speed of market response to the information associated with block trades, we have used the ‘transaction time event approach’, as used by Holthausen et al. (1990). We find that the prices start increasing (front running) 8 minutes before block purchases but not in case of block sales i.e. some information about the impending block purchase is factored in by the market when the block trade is for purchases. Further, in the case of block sales, prices revert quickly leaving very small permanent price impact.

Relative Effectiveness of Signals in IPOs in Indian Capital Markets

IPO by a firm calls for assessment of potential agency problems and associated costs by the outside investors. The potential conflict of interest problems between insiders and outsiders could be very high in countries with weak corporate governance mechanisms like India. Theoretically it could be argued that there are quite a few signals related to the firms in the IPO context and available to the investors, which could be used by them to assess the quality of firms. Based on cross-sectional data of 1243 IPOs in Indian markets during 1993-95 period, we find that the under-pricing (or realized excess returns), inside equity and pre-public offer firm reservations made for institutions and mutual funds explain the extent of oversubscription across IPOs. The type of agency appraising the project and presence or absence of foreign financial and/or technical collaborators fail to explain the extent of oversubscription across IPOs. In addition, we find that subscription rate rather than realized initial returns as dependent variable sheds more light on the effect of signals in a fixed-price open offer IPO process characterized by listing with considerable lag.

The Dynamic Relationship between Price and Trading Volume:Evidence from Indian Stock Market

This study investigates the nature of relationship between price and trading volume for 50 Indian stocks. Firstly the contemporaneous and asymmetric relation between price and volume are examined. Then we examine the dynamic relation between returns and volume using VAR, Granger causality, variance decomposition (VD) and impulse response function (IRF). Mixture of Distributions Hypothesis (MDH), which tests the GARCH vs. Volume effect, is also studied between the conditional volatility and volume. The results show that there is positive and asymmetric relation between volume and price changes. Further the results of VAR and Granger causality show that there is a bi-directional relation between volume and returns. However, the results of VD imply weak dynamic relation between returns and volume which becomes more evident from the plots of IRF. On MDH, our results are mixed, neither entirely rejecting the MDH nor giving it an unconditional support.

Price and Volatility Spillovers across North American, European and Asian Stock Markets: With Special Focus on Indian Stock Market

<div align=justify>This paper investigates interdependence of fifteen world indices including an Indian market index in terms of return and volatility spillover effect. Interdependence of Indian stock market with other fourteen world markets in terms of long run integration, short run dependence (return spillover) and volatility spillover are investigated. These markets are that of are Canada, China, France, Germany, Hong-Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Singapore, Taiwan, United Kingdom and United States. Long run and short run integration is examined through Johansen cointegration techniques and Granger causality test respectively. Vector autoregressive model (VAR 15) is used to estimate the conditional return spillover among these indices in which all fifteen indices are considered together. The effect of same day return in explaining the return spillover is also modeled using univariate models. Volatility spillover is estimated through AR-GARCH in which residuals from the index return is used as explanatory variable in GARCH equation. Return and volatility spillover between Indian and other markets are modeled through bivariate VAR and multivariate GARCH (BEKK) model respectively. It is found that there is greater regional influence among Asian markets in return and volatility than with European and US. Japanese market, which is first to open, is affected by US and European markets only and affects most of the Asian Markets. Also, high degree of correlation among European indices namely FTSE, CAC and DAX is observed. US market is influenced by both Asian and European markets. Specific to Indian context, it is found that Indian market is not cointegrated with rest of the world except Indonesia. This may provide diversification benefits for potential investors. However, strong short run interdependence is found between Indian markets and most of the other markets. Indian and other markets like US, Japan, Korea, and Canada positively affect each others conditional returns significantly. Indian market also has significant effect on Malaysia, Pakistan, and Singapore return. This study found that there is significant positive volatility spillover from other markets to Indian market, mainly from Hong Kong, Korea, Japan, and Singapore and US market. Indian market affects negatively the volatility of US and Pakistan. It is interesting to note that Chinese and Pakistan markets are less integrated with other Asian, European and US markets.</div>

Structuring PPPs in Aviation Sector: Case of Delhi and Mumbai Airport Privatization

The concession agreement for the modernization and operation of Indira Gandhi International airport in Delhi and Chhatrapati Shivaji International airport at Mumbai respectively is referred to as Operation Management and Development Agreement (OMDA). The OMDA was a part of a set of transaction documents along with the request for proposal provided to potential bidders. The OMDA laid out the contractual terms for structuring the PPP. This paper discusses the evolution of the draft OMDA from when it was first released in April 2005 to the bidders till it was released as a final OMDA in August 2005 before an extended bidding date. During this period, some of the critical issues addressed were: limits to commercial development of airport land, nature of tariff regulatory regime, contingent liabilities including performance bonds and termination payments, and potential contractual and strategic conflicts. It brings out the intra-governmental issues and processes, and the significant learning that formed part of these PPP concessions, which could well be among the largest in the world.