Invoice currencies, import prices, and inflation

This paper uses the structural VAR approach to examine the interactive responses between import prices and domestic prices in Japan before and after the 1990s. First, the estimation reveals that the Japanese domestic prices have become a little more vulnerable to foreign inflationary pressure through a rise in contract import prices. Second, Japan after the 1990s can pass along its domestic inflationary pressure to foreign countries with an increase in the pricing of its domestic products. Third, the results confirm that Japan’s exchange rate pass-through effect on its domestic prices has decreased, as suggested by other literature.Structural VAR; globalization; Japanese economy

"On the Determinants of Exporters' Currency Pricing: History vs. Expectations"

The purpose of this paper is to investigate why the choice of invoice currency under exchange rate uncertainty depends not only on expectations but also on history. The analysis is motivated by the fact that the U.S. dollar has historically been the dominant vehicle currency in developing countries. The theoretical analysis is based on an open economy model of monopolistic competition. When the market is competitive enough, the exporting firms tend to set their prices not to deviate from those of the competitors. As a result, a coordination failure can lead the third currency to be a less efficient equilibrium invoice currency. The role of expectations is important in selecting the equilibrium in the static framework. However, in the dynamic model with staggered price-setting, the role of history becomes another key determinant of the equilibrium currency pricing. The role of history may dominate the role of expectations when the firms are myopic, particularly in the competitive local market. It also becomes dominant in the staggered price setting when a small fraction of the new price setters are backward-looking. The result suggests the importance of history in explaining why the firm tends to choose the US dollar as vehicle currency.

On the Determinants of Exporters' Currency Pricing: History vs. Expectations (Subsequently published in "Journal of the Japanese and International Economies", Vol.18, No.4, December 2006, pp.548-568. )

The purpose of this paper is to investigate why the choice of invoice currency under exchange rate uncertainty depends not only on expectations but also on history. The analysis is motivated by the fact that the U.S. dollar has historically been the dominant vehicle currency in developing countries. The theoretical analysis is based on an open economy model of monopolistic competition. When the market is competitive enough, the exporting firms tend to set their prices not to deviate from those of the competitors. As a result, a coordination failure can lead the third currency to be a less efficient equilibrium invoice currency. The role of expectations is important in selecting the equilibrium in the static framework. However, in the dynamic model with staggered price-setting, the role of history becomes another key determinant of the equilibrium currency pricing. The role of history may dominate the role of expectations when the firms are myopic, particularly in the competitive local market. It also becomes dominant in the staggered price setting when a small fraction of the new price setters are backward-looking. The result suggests the importance of history in explaining why the firm tends to choose the US dollar as vehicle currency.

The Choice of Invoice Currency under Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from Korea (Subsequently published in "Journal of the Korean Economy" Vol.6 No.2 Fall 2005. )

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the choice of invoice currency under exchange rate uncertainty. The analysis is motivated by the fact that the U.S. dollar has been the dominant vehicle currency in developing countries. The theoretical analysis is based on an open economy model of monopolistic competition. The export prices are set before exchange rates are known. When the market is competitive enough, the exporting firms tend to set their prices not to deviate from those of the competitors. As a result, when the other exporters set their prices in the third currency, the exporting firm tends to choose the third currency as an equilibrium invoice currency. The tendency becomes conspicuous in the market where the shares of local firms are small. The latter part of the paper empirically investigates the relevancy of the theoretical results by using the export price data in Korea. We find that export prices in Korea are highly stable in terms of the US dollar even in the commodities for which Japan has had dominant shares. We also find that export prices in Korea are more stable against the US dollar in the commodities for which the shares of local firms are small in Japan. The empirical results are consistent with our theoretical model. The result may explain why the firm tends to set prices in the US dollar even if the United States is not a trade partner.

Trading companies as financial intermediaries in Japan

This paper explores a financial role of Japanese general trading companies (GTCs), which act as a central point in a distribution network among group firms. I examine Meltzer’s conjecture, which holds that financially strong companies like GTCs increase trade receivables and reduce trade payables to shield their trading partners from a monetary squeeze. First, I investigate the trade credit granted to each other by GTCs and all its trade partners. The panel estimation demonstrates that both trade receivables and trade payables decrease during periods of monetary tightness and increase during those of monetary ease. In response to a change in a bank-lending indicator, there is little difference between trade receivables and payables. Thus GTCs become neither net-credit providers nor net-credit takers from this behavior. In other words, interfirm financing passing through a GTC’s balance sheet positively correlates with banking financing. Therefore, the Meltzer hypothesis does not hold for transactions between GTCs and all their trade partners. Instead, gross trade credit functions as a complement to macroeconomic bank lending. Second, I examine trade credit by dividing GTCs’ trading partners into related companies (i.e., subsidiaries and associate firms) and non-related companies. In terms of the reactions of trade credit to market financial indicators, I did not find statistically significant evidence that the Meltzer hypothesis works in either case. No matter with whom a GTC trades, interfirm financing passing through the GTC’s balance sheet moves positively in concert with banking financing. A major difference between related and non-related companies lies in the way in which trade receivables react to a GTC’s individual financial situation (that is, a firm’s individual interest expense rate minus a market’s interest rate). An increase in the interest gap induces a GTC to incur extra expenses over the market rate. In this situation, a GTC reduces trade receivables to non-related firms, but not those to related firms. This behavior eventually works as a shield, protecting their related companies from sharing the parent company’s interest costs

Invoice currencies, import prices, and inflation

This paper uses the structural VAR approach to examine the interactive responses between import prices and domestic prices in Japan before and after the 1990s. First, the estimation reveals that the Japanese domestic prices have become a little more vulnerable to foreign inflationary pressure through a rise in contract import prices. Second, Japan after the 1990s can pass along its domestic inflationary pressure to foreign countries with an increase in the pricing of its domestic products. Third, the results confirm that Japan’s exchange rate pass-through effect on its domestic prices has decreased, as suggested by other literature

Trading companies as financial intermediaries in Japan

This paper explores a financial role of Japanese general trading companies (GTCs), which act as a central point in a distribution network among group firms. I examine Meltzer’s conjecture, which holds that financially strong companies like GTCs increase trade receivables and reduce trade payables to shield their trading partners from a monetary squeeze. First, I investigate the trade credit granted to each other by GTCs and all its trade partners. The panel estimation demonstrates that both trade receivables and trade payables decrease during periods of monetary tightness and increase during those of monetary ease. In response to a change in a bank-lending indicator, there is little difference between trade receivables and payables. Thus GTCs become neither net-credit providers nor net-credit takers from this behavior. In other words, interfirm financing passing through a GTC’s balance sheet positively correlates with banking financing. Therefore, the Meltzer hypothesis does not hold for transactions between GTCs and all their trade partners. Instead, gross trade credit functions as a complement to macroeconomic bank lending. Second, I examine trade credit by dividing GTCs’ trading partners into related companies (i.e., subsidiaries and associate firms) and non-related companies. In terms of the reactions of trade credit to market financial indicators, I did not find statistically significant evidence that the Meltzer hypothesis works in either case. No matter with whom a GTC trades, interfirm financing passing through the GTC’s balance sheet moves positively in concert with banking financing. A major difference between related and non-related companies lies in the way in which trade receivables react to a GTC’s individual financial situation (that is, a firm’s individual interest expense rate minus a market’s interest rate). An increase in the interest gap induces a GTC to incur extra expenses over the market rate. In this situation, a GTC reduces trade receivables to non-related firms, but not those to related firms. This behavior eventually works as a shield, protecting their related companies from sharing the parent company’s interest costs

Asymmetric Synthesis of Optically Active Malic Acid

Chiral reduction of 2-oxosuccinic acid esters with fermenting bakers' yeast gave (S)-(-)- malic acid esters in 34-54% isolated yield with 85-100% ee