Fleet-Level Environmental Assessments for Feasibility of Aviation Emission Reduction Goals

13-C-AJFE-PU-013This is an open access paper under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Please cite this article as: Ogunsina, K.E., Chao, H., Kolencherry, N.J., Jain, S., Moolchandani, K.A., DeLaurentis, D., & Crossley, W.A. (2022). Fleet-Level Environmental Assessments for Feasibility of Aviation Emission Reduction Goals. ArXiv, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2210.11302The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is one of several organizations that have presented goals for future CO2 emissions from commercial aviation with the intent of alleviating the associated environmental impacts. These goals include attaining carbon-neutral growth in the year 2020 and total aviation CO2 emissions in 2050 equal to 50% of 2005 aviation CO2 emissions. This paper presents the use of a simulation-based approach to predict future CO2 emissions from commercial aviation based upon a set of scenarios developed as part of the Aircraft Technology Modeling and Assessment project within ASCENT, the FAA Center of Excellence for Alternative Jet Fuels and the Environment. Results indicate that, in future scenarios with increasing demand for air travel, it is difficult to reduce CO2 emissions in 2050 to levels equal to or below 2005 levels, although neutral CO2 growth after 2020 may be possible. Presented at the Council of Engineering Systems Universities (CESUN) conference in 201

A Novel Data-Driven Design Paradigm for Airline Disruption Management

Airline disruption management traditionally seeks to address three problem dimensions: aircraft scheduling, crew scheduling, and passenger scheduling, in that order. However, current efforts have, at most, only addressed the first two problem dimensions concurrently and do not account for the propagative effects that uncertain scheduling outcomes in one dimension can have on another dimension. Uncertainties in scheduling outcomes originate from random disruption events (like inclement weather and aircraft malfunction), the order in which the events occur, and how they are resolved. As such, these uncertainties propagate through all problem dimensions for airline disruption management on the day of operation. In addition, existing approaches for airline disruption management include human specialists who decide on necessary corrective actions for airline schedule disruptions on the day of operation. However, human specialists are limited in their ability to process copious amounts of information imperative for making robust decisions that simultaneously address all problem dimensions during disruption management. Therefore, there is a need to augment the decision-making capabilities of a human specialist with quantitative and qualitative tools that can rationalize complex interactions amongst all dimensions in airline disruption management, and provide objective insights to the specialists in the Airline Operations Control Center (AOCC). To that effect, we provide a discussion and demonstration of an agnostic and systematic paradigm for enabling simultaneously-integrated recovery of all problem dimensions during airline disruption management, through an intelligent multi-agent system that employs principles from artificial intelligence and distributed ledger technology

Fleet-Level Environmental Assessments for Feasibility of Aviation Emission Reduction Goals

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is one of several organizations that have presented goals for future CO2 emissions from commercial aviation with the intent of alleviating the associated environmental impacts. These goals include attaining carbon-neutral growth in the year 2020 and total aviation CO2 emissions in 2050 equal to 50% of 2005 aviation CO2 emissions. This paper presents the use of a simulation-based approach to predict future CO2 emissions from commercial aviation based upon a set of scenarios developed as part of the Aircraft Technology Modeling and Assessment project within ASCENT, the FAA Center of Excellence for Alternative Jet Fuels and the Environment. Results indicate that, in future scenarios with increasing demand for air travel, it is difficult to reduce CO2 emissions in 2050 to levels equal to or below 2005 levels, although neutral CO2 growth after 2020 may be possible