"How to Measure the Outcome of Innovations: Application to Product Innovations"

This paper provided a conceptual framework to quantify consumer gains from product innovations. Using an example of VCRs, we illustrate a model that is useful to measure consumer welfare, and describe what data are to be used for the analysis. We also make a selective survey of papers that measure the consumer welfare of product innovations and discuss advantages and limitations of the analytical framework.

"Productivity, Capital Utilization, and Intra-firm Diffusion: A Study of Steel Refining Furnaces"

This paper examines the intra-firm diffusion of new technology in the Japanese steel industry. The introduction of the basic oxygen furnace was the greatest breakthrough in steel refining in the last century. Using unique panel data concerning capital utiliza- tion, the paper estimates total factor productivity by technology type, and associates the estimate with intra-firm diffusion. Estimation results reveal that the productivity difference between the old and new technologies plays an important role. The paper also finds that in operation, the old technology can better respond to changes in market demand, which brings about counter-cyclicality in the measured productivity.

"Empirical Analysis of the National Treatment Obligation Under the WTO: The Case of Japanese Shochu "

The national treatment obligation, along with the most favored nation obligation, is an important principle of non-discrimination adopted by theWorld Trade Organization. It requires that foreign products be treated no less favorably than national products. This paper empirically examines the 1996 WTO recommendation that a Japanese distilled alcoholic beverage, shochu , be classed as a "directly competitive or substitutable product" with regard to other distilled drinks, and thus that not taxing similarly be in violation of its national treatment obligation. Demand estimates obtained from a random-coefficient discrete-choice model reveal that a substitution pattern of shochu is far more complicated than that presumed by the WTO. Upon the WTO recommendation, Japan made all distilled alcoholic beverages be taxable at the same level in 2000. Our simulation analysis indicates that the revised tax rates improved but did not maximize Japanese national welfare.

"Did US Safeguards Resuscitate Harley-Davidson in the 1980s?"

This paper examines US safeguards applied to the motorcycle market in the 1980s. After receiving temporary protection by means of a maximum tariff of over 45%, Harley-Davidson sales recovered dramatically. Simulations, based on structural demand and supply estimates, indicate that while safeguard tariffs did benefit Harley-Davidson, they only account for a fraction of its increased sales. This is primarily because consumers perceived that Harley-Davidson and Japanese large motorcycles were poorly matched substitutes for each other. Our results provide little evidence that safeguard provisions triggered restructuring in Harley-Davidson.

"Technology Adoption, Learning by Doing, and Productivity: A Study of Steel Refining Furnaces"

Models of vintage-capital learning by doing predict an initial fall in productivity after the introduction of new technology. This paper examines the impact of new technology on plant-level productivity in the Japanese steel industry in the 1950s and 1960s. The introduction of the basic oxygen furnace was the greatest breakthrough in the steel refining process in the last century. We estimate production function, taking account of the differences in technology between the refining furnaces owned by a plant. Estimation results indicate that a more productive plant was likely to adopt the new technology, and that the adoption would be timed to occur right after the peak of the productivity level achieved with the old technology. We have found that the adoption of the new technology primarily accounted not only for the industry's productivity slowdown in the early 1960s, but also for the industry's remarkable growth in the post-war period. These results are robust to endogeneity in the choice of input and technology.

"International Consumption Patterns among High-income Countries: Evidence from the OECD Data"

The paper analyzes product-level consumption patterns among countries in the OECD in the period from 1985 to 1999. Estimation results find robust evidence of strong convergence in cross-country consumption patterns. The paper also finds a relationship between openness and the cross-country consumption pattern.

"Matrix Exponential Stochastic Volatility with Cross Leverage"

This paper examines the economic impact of re-invention - the degree to which an innovation is modified by user - on industry growth and productivity. The paper focuses on two re-inventions made by a Japanese steel company; these inventions improved the productive efficiency of Austrian-made refining technology, namely, basic oxygen furnace (BOF). Results obtained from the plant-level production-function estimation indicate that re-inventions account for approximately 30 percent of the total factor productivity of the BOF, substantially promoting the dissemination of the BOF technology. Our simulation analysis indeed reveals that re-inventions contributed to steel output growth by about 14 percent. This paper also documents that innovating companies played the role of a "lead user" in developing and disseminating their re-invented technologies.

"Assessing the Consequences of a Horizontal Merger and its Remedies in a Dynamic Environment"

This paper estimates a dynamic oligopoly model to assess the economic consequences of a horizontal merger that took place in 1970 to create the second largest global producer of steel. The paper solves a Markov perfect Nash equilibrium for the model and simulates the welfare effects of the horizontal merger. Estimates reveal that the merger enhanced the production efficiency of the merging party by a magnitude of 4.1 %, while the exercise of market power was restrained primarily by the presence of fringe competitors. Our simulation result also indicates that structural remedies endorsed by the competition authority failed to promote competition. model.

"Indirect Network Effects and the Product Cycle: Video Games in the U.S., 1994-2002"

This paper examines the importance of indirect network effects in the U.S.video game market between 1994 and 2002. The diffusion of game systems is analyzed by the interaction between console adoption decisions and software supply decisions. Estimation results suggest that introductory pricing is an effective practice at the beginning of the product cycle, and expanding software variety becomes more effective later. The paper also finds a degree of inertia in the software market that does not exist in the hardware market. This observation implies that software providers continue to exploit the installed base of hardware users after hardware demand has slowed.

"Learning by Doing, Export Subsidies, and Industry Growth: Japanese Steel in the 1950s and 1960s"

The paper examines the Japanese steel industry in the 1950s and 1960s to evaluate the role of export subsidy policies. Export subsidies can be instrumental in increasing an industry's cost competitiveness in the presence of learning by doing, a characteristic of production in the steel industry. The proposed approach addresses identification issues found in the literature. Using a dynamic estimation model, this paper identifies a significant learning rate of above 20%. It also finds little intra-industry knowledge spillover, an observation consistent with the nature of the Japanese employment system at that time. Simulations made with the model indicate that the subsidy policy had an insignificant impact on industry growth. The paper provides underlying economic reasons for the simulation results.