Automatic Locally Stationary Time Series Forecasting with application to predicting U.K. Gross Value Added Time Series under sudden shocks caused by the COVID pandemic

Accurate forecasting of the U.K. gross value added (GVA) is fundamental for measuring the growth of the U.K. economy. A common nonstationarity in GVA data, such as the ABML series, is its increase in variance over time due to inflation. Transformed or inflation-adjusted series can still be challenging for classical stationarity-assuming forecasters. We adopt a different approach that works directly with the GVA series by advancing recent forecasting methods for locally stationary time series. Our approach results in more accurate and reliable forecasts, and continues to work well even when the ABML series becomes highly variable during the COVID pandemic.Comment: 21 pages, 4 figure

Supercritical CO2 Extraction as a Tool to Isolate Anti-Inflammatory Sesquiterpene Lactones from Cichorium intybus L. Roots

Funding: This work was conducted under the “CHIC” project (H2020-NMBP-BIO-2017) with financial support received from the EU Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement N. 760891.Cichorium intybus L. or chicory plants are a natural source of health-promoting compounds in the form of supplements such as inulin, as well as other bioactive compounds such as sesquiterpene lactones (SLs). After inulin extraction, chicory roots are considered waste, with most SLs not being harnessed. We developed and optimized a new strategy for SL extraction that can contribute to the conversion of chicory root waste into valuable products to be used in human health-promoting applications. In our work, rich fractions of SLs were recovered from chicory roots using supercritical CO2. A response surface methodology was used to optimize the process parameters (pressure, temperature, flow rate, and co-solvent percentage) for the extraction performance. The best operating conditions were achieved at 350 bar, 40 °C, and 10% EtOH as a co-solvent in a 15 g/min flow rate for 120 min. The extraction with supercritical CO2 revealed to be more selective for the SLs than the conventional solid-liquid extraction with ethyl acetate. In our work, 1.68% mass and a 0.09% sesquiterpenes yield extraction were obtained, including the recovery of two sesquiterpene lactones (8-deoxylactucin and 11β,13-dihydro-8-deoxylactucin), which, to the best of our knowledge, are not commercially available. A mixture of the abovementioned compounds were tested at different concentrations for their toxic profile and anti-inflammatory potential towards a human calcineurin/NFAT orthologue pathway in a yeast model, the calcineurin/Crz1 pathway. The SFE extract obtained, rich in SLs, yielded results of inhibition of 61.74 ± 6.87% with 50 µg/mL, and the purified fraction containing 8-deoxylactucin and 11β,13-dihydro-8-deoxylactucin inhibited the activation of the reporter gene up to 53.38 ± 3.9% at 10 µg/mL. The potential activity of the purified fraction was also validated by the ability to inhibit Crz1 nuclear translocation and accumulation. These results reveal a possible exploitable green technology to recover potential anti-inflammatory compounds from chicory roots waste after inulin extraction.publishersversionpublishe

A Bimodal Science Measurements for Earth Remote Sensing on a 3U CubeSat Platform

Solar energetic events, which include solar flares and solar mass ejections affect the Earth\u27s atmosphere. While solar energetic events have been observed to influence the chemistry of the mesospheric ozone, a comprehensive collection of quantitative data detailing the frequency, energy, and intensity of these interactions with the mesosphere have, to our knowledge, not before been collected. High-energy charged particles from solar energetic events can ionize molecules found within the mesosphere, accelerating the formation rate of reactive hydrogen atoms and nitrogen oxides. This results in reactions that catalyze the conversion of ozone back into diatomic oxygen. The Variability in Atmosphere – Solar Energetic Event study (VIA-SEEs) mission intends to utilize a 3U-CubeSat in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to establish a singular data set for the purpose of understanding the correlation between flux in solar energetic events and variability in total reactive nitrogen oxides (NOy) and ozone (O3) concentrations in the mesosphere. This mission intends to produce a unique data set using a bimodal measurement scheme involving two instruments – one Variability in Atmosphere (VIA) commercial-off-the-shelf spectrophotometer for measuring NOy and O3 concentrations, and one in-house designed and fabricated solid-state radiation detector for observing the energy and flux of solar energetic electrons and protons

Prevalence of persistent SARS-CoV-2 in a large community surveillance study

Persistent SARS-CoV-2 infections may act as viral reservoirs that could seed future outbreaks 1–5, give rise to highly divergent lineages 6–8, and contribute to cases with post-acute COVID-19 sequelae (Long Covid) 9,10. However, the population prevalence of persistent infections, their viral load kinetics, and evolutionary dynamics over the course of infections remain largely unknown. Using viral sequence data collected as part of a national infection survey, we identified 381 individuals with SARS-CoV-2 RNA at high titre persisting for at least 30 days, of which 54 had viral RNA persisting at least 60 days. We refer to these as ‘persistent infections’ since available evidence suggests they represent ongoing viral replication, although the persistence of non-replicating RNA cannot be ruled out in all. Persistently infected individuals had more than 50% higher odds of self-reporting Long Covid compared to non-persistently infected individuals. We estimate that 0.1- 0.5% of infections may become persistent with typically rebounding high viral loads and last for at least 60 days. In some individuals, we identified many viral amino acid substitutions, indicating periods of strong positive selection, while others had no consensus change in the sequences for prolonged periods, consistent with weak selection. Substitutions included mutations that are lineage-defining for SARS-CoV-2 variants, at target sites for monoclonal antibodies, and/or commonly found in immunocompromised patients 11–14. This work has significant implications for understanding and characterising SARS-CoV-2 infection, epidemiology, and evolution

Control and systems software for the Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS)

The Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor (CLASS) is an array of polarization-sensitive millimeter wave telescopes that observes ~70% of the sky at frequency bands centered near 40GHz, 90GHz, 150GHz, and 220GHz from the Atacama desert of northern Chile. Here, we describe the architecture of the software used to control the telescopes, acquire data from the various instruments, schedule observations, monitor the status of the instruments and observations, create archival data packages, and transfer data packages to North America for analysis. The computer and network architecture of the CLASS observing site is also briefly discussed. This software and architecture has been in use since 2016, operating the telescopes day and night throughout the year, and has proven successful in fulfilling its design goals.Comment: 19 pages, 8 figures, to appear in Proc. SPI

Why healthcare workers are sick of TB.

Dr Thato Mosidi never expected to be diagnosed with tuberculosis (TB), despite widely prevalent exposure and very limited infection control measures. The life-threatening diagnosis of primary extensively drug-resistant TB (XDR-TB) came as an even greater shock. The inconvenient truth is that, rather than being protected, Dr Mosidi and thousands of her healthcare colleagues are at an increased risk of TB and especially drug-resistant TB. In this viewpoint paper we debunk the widely held false belief that healthcare workers are somehow immune to TB disease (TB-proof) and explore some of the key factors contributing to the pervasive stigmatization and subsequent non-disclosure of occupational TB. Our front-line workers are some of the first to suffer the consequences of a progressively more resistant and fatal TB epidemic, and urgent interventions are needed to ensure the safety and continued availability of these precious healthcare resources. These include the rapid development and scale-up of improved diagnostic and treatment options, strengthened infection control measures, and focused interventions to tackle stigma and discrimination in all its forms. We call our colleagues to action to protect themselves and those they care for

Increased protein intake derived from leucine-enriched protein enhances the integrated myofibrillar protein synthetic response to short-term resistance training in untrained men and women: a 4-day randomized controlled trial

Leucine is a critical amino acid stimulating myofibrillar protein synthesis (MyoPS). The consumption of higher leucine-containing drinks stimulates MyoPS, but we know less about higher leucine solid foods. Here we examined the effect of short-term resistance exercise training (STRT) combined with supplementation of a protein and leucine-enriched bar, compared with STRT alone, on integrated (%/d) rates of MyoPS and anabolic protein signaling. In a non-blinded, randomized crossover trial, eight young adults performed four sessions of STRT without or while consuming the study bar (STRT+Leu, 16g of protein containing ∼3g of leucine) for two 4d phases, separated by 2d non-exercise (Rest) washout. In combination with serial muscle biopsies, deuterated water permitted the measurement of myofibrillar protein synthesis and protein signaling phosphorylation. MyoPS during STRT (1.43 ± 0.06 %/d) and STRT+Leu (1.53 ± 0.06 %/d) were greater than Rest (1.31 ± 0.05 %/d), and MyoPS during STRT+Leu (1.53 ± 0.06 %/d) was greater than STRT alone (1.43 ± 0.06 %/d). STRT+Leu increased the ratio of phosphorylated to total mTOR and 4EBP1 compared to Rest. Engaging in STRT increased integrated MyoPS and protein signaling in young adults and was enhanced with increased protein intake derived from a leucine-enriched protein bar. This study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT03796897

Multiple pathways of commodity crop expansion in tropical forest landscapes

Commodity crop expansion, for both global and domestic urban markets, follows multiple land change pathways entailing direct and indirect deforestation, and results in various social and environmental impacts. Here we compare six published case studies of rapid commodity crop expansion within forested tropical regions. Across cases, between 1.7% and 89.5% of new commodity cropland was sourced from forestlands. Four main factors controlled pathways of commodity crop expansion: (i) the availability of suitable forestland, which is determined by forest area, agroecological or accessibility constraints, and land use policies, (ii) economic and technical characteristics of agricultural systems, (iii) differences in constraints and strategies between small-scale and large-scale actors, and (iv) variable costs and benefits of forest clearing. When remaining forests were unsuitable for agriculture and/or policies restricted forest encroachment, a larger share of commodity crop expansion occurred by conversion of existing agricultural lands, and land use displacement was smaller. Expansion strategies of large-scale actors emerge from context-specific balances between the search for suitable lands; transaction costs or conflicts associated with expanding into forests or other state-owned lands versus smallholder lands; net benefits of forest clearing; and greater access to infrastructure in already-cleared lands. We propose five hypotheses to be tested in further studies: (i) land availability mediates expansion pathways and the likelihood that land use is displaced to distant, rather than to local places; (ii) use of already-cleared lands is favored when commodity crops require access to infrastructure; (iii) in proportion to total agricultural expansion, large-scale actors generate more clearing of mature forests than smallholders; (iv) property rights and land tenure security influence the actors participating in commodity crop expansion, the form of land use displacement, and livelihood outcomes; (v) intensive commodity crops may fail to spare land when inducing displacement. We conclude that understanding pathways of commodity crop expansion is essential to improve land use governance

Characterization of Individualized Glycemic Excursions during a Standardized Bout of Hypoglycemia-Inducing Exercise and Subsequent Hypoglycemia Treatment—A Pilot Study

The glycemic response to ingested glucose for the treatment of hypoglycemia following exercise in type 1 diabetes patients has never been studied. Therefore, we aimed to characterize glucose dynamics during a standardized bout of hypoglycemia-inducing exercise and the subsequent hypoglycemia treatment with the oral ingestion of glucose. Ten male patients with type 1 diabetes performed a standardized bout of cycling exercise using an electrically braked ergometer at a target heart rate (THR) of 50% of the individual heart rate reserve, determined using the Karvonen equation. Exercise was terminated when hypoglycemia was reached, followed by immediate hypoglycemia treatment with the oral ingestion of 20 g of glucose. Arterialized blood glucose (ABG) levels were monitored at 5 min intervals during exercise and for 60 min during recovery. During exercise, ABG decreased at a mean rate of 0.11 ± 0.03 mmol/L·min−1 (minimum: 0.07, maximum: 0.17 mmol/L·min−1). During recovery, ABG increased at a mean rate of 0.13 ± 0.05 mmol/L·min−1 (minimum: 0.06, maximum: 0.19 mmol/L·min−1). Moreover, 20 g of glucose maintained recovery from hypoglycemia throughout the 60 min postexercise observation window