An Historical Review and Analysis of Colombian Guerrilla Movements: FARC, ELN and EPL

Colombian guerrilla movements have increasingly been associated with illicit activity and terror. This paper is divided into two main sections. The first section traces the roots of the FARC, ELN and EPL guerrilla movements and describes how traditional Marxist-style guerrilla groups became more associated with crime and kidnapping than political ideals. The second turns to the economics literature to explain the observed guerrilla behavior relating it to traditional guerrilla movements, organized crime and extortion.Guerrilla movements, illicit activity, organized crime

NATIONAL, DEPARTMENTAL AND MUNICIPAL RURAL AGRICULTURAL LAND DISTRIBUTION IN COLOMBIA: ANALYZING THE WEB OF INEQUALITY, POVERTY AND VIOLENCE

Recent literature points to a relationship between inequality, economic growth and socio-economic variables. In order to continue to research the relationship between these factors and inequality in Colombia, it is essential to construct a precise measure of rural land distribution. This paper presents calculations of rural land size and land value Gini coefficients for Colombia at the national, departmental and municipal levels using approximately 2.5 million registries of plot level data supplied by the Instituto Geográfico Agustín Codazzi. In general, value Ginis, where value controls for land quality and improvements, are lower than plot size Ginis, and even after meticulous filtration anomalies remain in the data. Additionally, the relationship between the Gini coefficients and municipal level variables are analyzed to consider the relation between inequality, poverty, rurality and other municipal characteristics. Lastly, earlier results relating Gini to violence are reconsidered. After controlling for other factors, distribution does not explain significantly violence.Land Gini

AN HISTORICAL REVIEW AND ANALYSIS OF COLOMBIAN GUERRILLA MOVEMENTS

Colombian guerrilla movements have increasingly been associated with illicit activity and terror. This paper is divided into two main sections. The first traces the roots of the movements and describes how traditional Marxist-style guerrilla groups became more associated with crime and kidnapping than political ideals. The second turns to the economics literature to explain the observed guerrilla behavior relating it to traditional guerrilla movements, organized crime and extortion.Guerrilla movements, illicit activity, organized crime

AN EXTORTIONARY GUERILLA MOVEMENT

This paper develops a theoretical framework that formalizes a guerrilla movement's observed oil pipeline attack decision. The movement's decision is modeled as an infinite horizon Markov Decision Process, where each period it chooses to attack or not attack the pipeline. For extortionary behavior, each period the movement's decision wil depend on the level of single period payoff and discounted expected future payoffs. We estimate the model using the pipeline attack data and compare parameters when the discount factor is changed. The results suggest that can reject a zero discount factor hypothesis, demonstrating that the movement's observed attack behavior is compatible with extortionary behavior.Markov Decision Process, Guerrilla, Colombia