Reduction of Behavioural Food Risks: An Analysis of Economic Incentives and Social Context Factors in the German Poultry Chains

This paper describes an interdisciplinary research project carried out on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Consumer Protection, Food and Agriculture. The project combines the knowledge of food experts with decision-orientated approaches from microeconomics and the social sciences. It examines what it is that makes food business operators (from the feed industry to the retail trade) break (or not break) rules. Through the analysis of both economic incentives and social context factors, the project aims at contributing to an adequate design of prevention measures. Four offence-prone regulations identified in the course of the ongoing project are exemplarily examined with regard to the present incentive situation.asymmetric information, moral hazard, opportunistic malpractice, poultry, Agribusiness, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

Which parameters determine farm development in Germany?

In 2005, Germany implemented the Single Payment Scheme which lead to the conversion of direct payments into tradable, production decoupled, single farm payments. The transition from coupled to decoupled support instruments may impact the rate of structural change. The rate of structural change may accelerate since farms with a high share of income derived from CAP payments will abandon farming and lease their land. However, there are also good reasons why the rate of structural change might decrease especially if farmers do not behave as profit maximizers. In Germany agricultural land use is very heterogeneous with respect to management orientation and productivity even at local level. Most of the concerns related to structural change and development of land use intensity, e.g. abandonment of high nature value farmland, are only relevant in a very specific local context. Therefore, it is necessary to establish indicators for farm development on adisaggregated level. The objective of this paper is twofold. First, we derive criteria and threshold values to classify regions according to their respective natural, socio economic conditions and land use. Second, we evaluate the stability of the link between a set of explanatory variables and the rate of structural change at different spatial scales. Our results indicate that only for a few variables a generally valid link between them and the rate of structural change can be established. For the majority of the explanatory variables, their respective impact on structural change depends heavily on the regional context.Structural change, Data mining, Fischler Reform, Agricultural and Food Policy, Q16, Q15, R14,

Understanding and Managing Behavioural Risks -The Case of Food Risks Caused by Malpractice in Poultry Production

The probability that actors in economic relationships break rules increases with the profits they thus expect to earn. It decreases with the probability and level of short- and long-term losses resulting from disclosure. It also decreases with the level of social context factors and intrinsic values which shield actors from yielding to economic temptations. This paper assesses the relative merits of various scientific approaches concerned with risks in economic relationships and outlines their contribution to the study of opportunistic rule-breaking. Since the identification of (misdirected) economic incentives faced by firms and individuals represents the starting point for a systematic analysis of opportunism in any field, we also outline a microeconomic approach that systematically provides this crucial information. The approach is applied to the problem of food quality and safety threatened by opportunistic malpractice of food business operators. Its essentials are illustrated through a study which systematically searches for the temptations to break production-related rules in the poultry industries.asymmetric information, control theories, economic misconduct, game theory, moral hazard, principal-agent model, opportunism, protective factors, relational risks, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, A13, K32, K42,

Recurrence Plots 25 years later -- gaining confidence in dynamical transitions

Recurrence plot based time series analysis is widely used to study changes and transitions in the dynamics of a system or temporal deviations from its overall dynamical regime. However, most studies do not discuss the significance of the detected variations in the recurrence quantification measures. In this letter we propose a novel method to add a confidence measure to the recurrence quantification analysis. We show how this approach can be used to study significant changes in dynamical systems due to a change in control parameters, chaos-order as well as chaos-chaos transitions. Finally we study and discuss climate transitions by analysing a marine proxy record for past sea surface temperature. This paper is dedicated to the 25th anniversary of the introduction of recurrence plots

Screening of winter barley varieties (Hordeum vulgare) for resistance against loose smut (Ustilago nuda) and covered smut (Ustilago hordei) in Germany

Up to now organic farmers depend greatly on conventionally bred and produced varieties of barley. A turning point was set in 2004 by EU regulation No. 1452/2003 restricting the use of conventionally propagated seed and planting material for organic agriculture. Concerning smut fungi in barley, conventional seed producer's attention was rarely directed to plant resistance due to the possibility of chemical seed treatment (controlling the diseases completely). A main problem for organic seed producers is that organically produced seeds have to fulfil the same regular phytosanitary requirements like conventionally produced seeds. For the production of certified seeds not more than five ears infected with Ustilago hordei (Uh) and/or U. nuda (Un) are allowed on an area of 150 m² in Germany (RUTZ 1998). Though warm or hot water treatment can give excellent control of Un and Uh in organic farming (WINTER et al. 1996), the effect is not sufficient for seed production. Even biological control agents (for example Tillecur®) cannot reach the demands of the guidelines reliably. As an effective way to keep the restrictions remains the cultivation of resistant varieties. Aim of the presented study was to screen winter barley varieties for their degree of smut resistance in Germany. It started in 2000 (KLAUSE & SPIESS 2003) and is sponsored within the Federal Organic Farming Scheme since 2002

Soil organic matter dynamics in the Siberian Kulunda steppe

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