Families, Taxes and the Welfare System

In this paper, I will describe in detail both the Earned Income Tax Credit and the Child Tax Credit in the U.S., including their origins, their structure, and the effects they have on the labor market and family formation. I will then discuss the macroeconomic implications of U.S. welfare reform, and then conclude by analyzing the effectiveness of the U.S. safety net (broadly defined) during the Great Recession of 2007-2008

Earned income tax credit recipients: income, marginal tax rates, wealth, and credit constraints

The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) has evolved into the largest anti-poverty program in the United States by providing tax credits for low and moderate income working families. In this paper, we describe the characteristics of EITC recipients at various ages using Current Population Survey data. In addition, we discuss the relevance of the EITC in affecting marginal income tax rates in the United States and discuss the effects of the EITC on household labor supply decisions. Lastly, using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances, we estimate wealth distributions for EITC recipients and analyze the extent to which EITC recipients are credit constrained.Credit ; Taxation

The short- and long-run determinants of less-educated immigration into US states

This paper uses a gravity model of migration to analyze how income differentials affect the flow of immigrants into U.S. states using annual data from the American Community Survey. We add to existing literature by decomposing income differentials into short- and long-term components and by focusing on newly arrived less-educated immigrants between 2000-2009. Our sample is unique in that 95 percent of our observed immigrant flows equal zero. We accommodate for the zeros by using scaled ordinary least squares, a threshold tobit model from Eaton and Tamura (1994), and the two-part model to analyze the determinants of immigration. Models that include observations with zero flow values find that recent male immigrants respond to differences in (short-term) GDP fluctuations between origin countries and U.S. states, and perhaps to (long-term) trend GDP differences as well. More specifically, short-run GDP fluctuations pull less-educated male immigrants into certain U.S. states, whereas GDP trends push less-educated male immigrants out of their countries of origin. Effects for less-educated women are less robust, as GDP coefficient magnitudes tend to be much smaller than in regressions for men

Immigration to European countries makes natives happier and has a positive impact on their welfare.

Does immigration have a positive or negative impact on native populations? Nicole B. Simpson and William Betz have analysed data on immigrant flows to 26 European countries between 2002, and have found that immigrants have a positive impact on the happiness and well-being of natives, especially after the first year. While the overall positive impact may be a small one, they do mean that the potential costs of immigration on natives, such as impacts on wages and employment, may be balanced by its benefits

Happiness and International Migration

In this paper, we consider the extent to which the aggregate happiness of a country affects the flow of people across its borders. We merge data from the World Values Survey, which produces happiness indices for 84 countries between 1981 and 2004, with three different migration datasets. We find that happiness has a U-shaped relationship with emigration rates: emigration rates fall in happiness for relatively unhappy countries, but rise for relatively happy countries. The U-shaped relationship also holds for migrant flows into the U.S. When analyzing net migration rates, we find that the reverse relationship exists. Net migration is associated with an increase in happiness for relatively unhappy countries, but after a threshold level of happiness, net migration is associated with a decrease in happiness. Our findings are robust to various empirical specifications and datasets

The Short-and Long-Run Determinants of Unskilled Immigration into US States

This paper uses a gravity model of migration to analyze how income differentials affect the flow of immigrants into U.S. states. We add to existing literature by decomposing income differentials into short- and long-term components and by focusing on newly arrived unskilled immigrants between 2000-2008. Our sample is unique in that 95 percent of our observed immigrant flows equal zero. The trade literature has advocated using the Eaton and Tamura (1994) threshold Tobit model in similar settings, and we are the first to apply the methodology to analyze the determinants of immigration. We find that recent U.S. immigrants positively respond to differences in long-term (or trend) GDP between origin countries and U.S. states. When appropriately accounting for the zero values, we also find that differences in GDP fluctuations significantly affect the flow of unskilled immigrants. In addition, we find that short-run GDP fluctuations pull unskilled immigrants into certain U.S. states, whereas GDP levels push unskilled immigrants out of their countries of origin

Single Mothers and the Earned Income Tax Credit: Insurance Without Disincentives?

The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) is the single most important transfer program in place in the United States. An aspect of the EITC that has received little attention thus far is its role as a public insurance program. Yet, the structure of the EITC necessarily protects its primary class of recipients, unskilled single mothers, against major risks they face to both wages and changes in family structure. Our study provides the first quantitative statement about the insurance provided by the EITC. We study a dynamic model of consumption, savings, and labor supply in which households face wage and demographic risk, but have only limited self-insurance capacity. We use the model to compare outcomes under the EITC to the counterfactual in which it is completely eliminated. We find that the EITC provides substantial insurance to unskilled single mothers: The program reduces consumption volatility, as measured by the coefficient of the variation, by 12 percentage points or more, even as it allows these households to save less. Importantly, this insurance provision may not be compromising incentives to work: The model suggests that the EITC increases the labor supply of unskilled single mothers substantially at the extensive margin

The effects of credit status on college attainment and college completion

College students now use various forms of unsecured credit such as private student loans and credit cards to finance college. Access to these credit lines and the interest rates charged on these loans can vary significantly across credit scores. In this paper, we analyze if credit status, as measured by self-reported characteristics of an individual's credit standing, affects college investment. Using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances, we study a sample of young high school graduates to estimate how three different measures of credit status affect college attainment and completion rates. After correcting for selection and endogeneity issues, we find that credit status is more important the longer the student stays in college. For example, having bad credit significantly lowers the probability of completing a four-year college degree, but has a smaller (but significant) impact on attaining some college. We find robust evidence that credit status affects the intensive margin of college investment, but is less important for the extensive margin. Our results suggest that bad credit status, which lowers the availability of unsecured credit to finance college and thereby makes college investment more expensive, significantly reduces college completion rates

A Classroom Experiment on Exchange Rate Determination with Purchasing Power Parity

We develop a classroom experiment on exchange rate determination appropriate for undergraduate courses in macroeconomics and international economics. Students represent citizens from different countries and need to obtain currency to purchase goods. By participating in a sealed bid auction to buy currency, students gain a better understanding of currency markets and the determination of exchange rates. The implicit framework for exchange rate determination is one in which prices are perfectly flexible (in the long run) so that purchasing power parity (PPP) prevails. Additional treatments allow students to examine the impact of transport costs, nontradable goods and tariffs on the exchange rate and to explore possible deviations from PPP.

The Impact of the Earned Income Tax Credit on Economic Well-being: A Comparison across Household Types

Using survey data from Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) recipients in Madison County, New York, we evaluate the effectiveness of the EITC in improving the economic well-being of low-income households. In particular, we examine the impact of the EITC across household types. For tax years 2002 through 2004, we find that the EITC is responsible for significantly lowering the poverty rate of the sample, from 57 to 49 percent. The EITC has the largest impact on single parent households, lowering their poverty rate by 11.2 percentage points. However, the EITC has negligible effects on the poorest households in the sample – childless singles. A majority (64 percent) of EITC recipients intends to use at least some of the refund on basic needs and almost half plan on using part of their refund for debt repayment. This suggests that the EITC helps the majority of recipients get by but not necessarily move toward economic independence. Somewhat surprisingly, single parent households in the sample are not that different from married parent households in terms of EITC amounts, poverty rates, use of credit, and participation in government programs, despite earning less