Osnovna demografska obilježja suvremenog iseljavanja iz Hrvatske

Posljednjih godina negativni trendovi demografskog razvoja Hrvatske poprimili su dramatične razmjere čime smo se našli u krugu europskih zemalja s najnepovoljnijim demografskim procesima, trendovima, odnosima i strukturama

DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF NORTHWESTERN CROATIA

U radu se analiziraju promjene osnovnih obilježja stanovništva sjeverozapadne Hrvatske. Broj stanovnika sjeverozapadne Hrvatske između 1900. i 2011. godine povećan je 8,5%, a maksimum stanovništva zabilježen je 1953. godine. Od potonje godine broj stanovnika ovog područja konstantno se smanjuje te je posljednjim popisom 2011. zabilježeno 11,9% stanovnika manje nego 1953. godine. Sagledavajući popisno kretanje broja stanovnika po županijama u tri karakteristična razdoblja (1900.-2011., 1948.-2011. i 2001.-2011.), uočava se izrazita bipolarnost jer Krapinsko-zagorska i Koprivničko-križevačka županija imaju pad broja stanovnika u sva tri razdoblja, dok Međimurska i Varaždinska županija bilježe brojčani porast u prva dva razdoblja, a pad broja stanovnika u razdoblju 2001.-2011. godine. Prirodno kretanje razmatrano je za razdoblje 1996.-2015. te je prirodnim putem u tih dvadeset godina sjeverozapadna Hrvatska izgubila 35 tisuća stanovnika dok se broj stanovnika izgubljen mehaničkim putem ne može utvrditi zbog promjena u metodologiji popisivanja ukupnog stanovništva nakon 1991. godine. Pokazatelji dobne strukture stanovništva sjeverozapadne Hrvatske također su izrazito nepovoljni jer je popisom 2011. zabilježeno 21,6% stanovništva starog između 0 i 19 godina te 22,8% stanovništva starog 60 godina i više. Iako se između 1981. i 2011. obrazovna struktura stanovništva sjeverozapadne Hrvatske znatno poboljšala, njezina obilježja još su uvijek ispod hrvatskog prosjeka te je posljednjim popisom zabilježeno svega 10,6% visokoobrazovanog stanovništva starog 15 godina i više.The paper analyzes the changes of the basic characteristics of the population of North-Western Croatia. Population of North-Western Croatia has increased by 8.5% between 1900 and 2011 and the maximum number of inhabitants was recorded in 1953. Since the latter year, the number of inhabitants of this area has been steadily decreasing, and the latest census in 2011 showed that the population decrease in comparison with 1953 was 11.9%. Considering the census dynamics of the number of inhabitants per county in three characteristic periods (1900-2011, 1948-2011 and 2001-2011), the significant bipolarity was noticed. Krapina-Zagorje County and Koprivnica-Križevci County have a population decline, while the counties of Međimurje and Varaždin recorded a significant population increase in the first two periods and the population decline in the period 2001-2011. The natural population dynamics was researched for the period 1996 – 2015. In those twenty years North-Western Croatia has lost 35 thousand inhabitants by natural population drop (more deaths than births), while the population drop caused by emigration can not be determined due to changes in the methodology of censuses after 1991. Indicators of the age structure of North-Western Croatia are also extremely unfavourable. The 2011 census showed that 21.6% of the population was aged between 0 and 19 years and 22.8% of the population was aged 60 years and over. Although between 1981 and 2011 the educational structure of the North-Western Croatia population was improved considerably, its characteristics are still below the Croatian average. The latest population census from 2011 showed that there was only 10.6% of the highly educated population aged 15 years and more

Schätzungen zur Zahl der von der Volkszählung 1991 bis zum 30. Juni 1998 aus der Republik Kroatien ausgewanderten Kroaten

U prvom su dijelu rada navedeni nedostaci statističkog praćenja vanjskih migracija u popisima stanovništva između 1971. i 1991. godine. Velika teškoća pri procjeni iseljenih hrvatskih građana proizlazi i zbog statističkog neevidentiranja kretanja i obujma izlaznih migracija. Budući da se, uz to, iseljavanje iz Hrvatske na početku analiziranog razdoblja zbivalo u ratnim okolnostima, procjena vanjskih migracija postaje vrlo kompleksna problematika. Stoga su ukratko nabrojeni i glavni razlozi daljnjeg iseljavanja iz Hrvatske devedesetih godina. Demografsko-analitičkom procjenom određen je broj vanjskih migranata između svake promatrane godine što je rezultiralo ukupnim kontingentom od približno 130 tisuća iseljenog stanovništva iz Republike Hrvatske između 1991. i 1998. godine. Time je broj hrvatskih građana koji rade ili borave u inozemstvu povećan s 285.000 (1991. godine) na oko 415.000 (1998.). Na kraju rada procijenjen je i broj iseljenog hrvatskog stanovništva po godinama za svaku županiju.In the first part of the paper the author has presented the insufficiencies of statistical follow-ups of external migrations in the censuses from 1971 and 1991. The great difficulty in estimating the number of emigrated Croatian citizens emerges also from not recording statistically the trends and scope of migrations out of the country. Since, in addition, at the beginning of the period analysed people emigrated from Croatia in circumstances of war, the assessment of external migrations has become a very complex issue. Therefore, the author has also enumerated the main reasons for further emigration from Croatia in the nineties. In a demographic analytical assessment the number of external migrants was determined for every year observed which resulted in an overall contingent of approximately 130 thousand emigrants from the Republic of Croatia between 1991 and 1998. Thus the number of Croatian citizens working or residing abroad was increased from 285 000 (in 1991) to 415 000 (in 1998). In the end the size of the Croatian emigrant population was assessed annually and for each county separately.Im ersten Teil dieser Studie werden die Nachteile angeführt, die sich bei der statistischen Erfassung (Volkszählungen) der Auslandsmigrationen zwischen 1971 und 1991 ergeben. Die Einschätzung der Zahl abgewanderter Kroaten ist u.a. deshalb so schwierig, weil die Abwanderung selbst und ihr Umfang nicht verzeichnet wurden. Da der Auswanderungstrend zu Beginn des untersuchten Zeitraums mit dem Kriegszustand in Kroatien zusammenfällt, wird die Einschätzung seines Umfangs zu einem äußerst komplexen Problem. Es sind daher die Hauptgründe für diesen auch weiterhin in den 90-ern zu beobachtenden Trend angeführt. Mittels einer demographisch-analytischen Schätzung wurde die Zahl der Auswanderer zwischen 1991 und 1998 bestimmt und insgesamt auf etwa 130.000 angesetzt. Somit vergrößert sich die Zahl der im Ausland lebenden und arbeitenden Kroaten von 285.000 (im Jahr 1991) auf etwa 415.000 (1998). Der Autor liefert abschließend eine Schätzung der Bevölkerungsabwanderung nach Gespanschaften in den einzelnen Jahren

Eine Analyse der demographischen Merkmale mittelgroBer kroatischer Stadte

U ovom su radu prikazana osnovna demografska obilježja pedeset i četiri srednja hrvatska grada koji su razdijeljeni u tri skupine; "veći", "srednji" i "manji" srednji gradovi. Sve navedene skupine i svaki grad posebno analizirani su na istovjetan način. Prikazano je popisno kretanje i tip općeg kretanja stanovništva u razdoblju od 1981. do 1991. godine, njegovo prirodno kretanje (1981. -1996.) te osnovna obilježja stanovništva u tim gradovima prema školskoj spremi, aktivnosti i djelatnosti. Osim što analizirana obilježja pojedinih gradova u svakoj skupini pokazuju znatne razlike, dobiveni pokazatelji razlikuju se i između osnovnih skupina srednjih gradova. Tako se izdvaja "srednja" skupina gradova s relativno povoljnijim demografskim obilježjima od ostale dvije skupine gradova. Naime, u "većim" i "manjim" srednjim gradovima prosječan je porast stanovništva bio manji, prirodan prirast slabiji, razlika između doseljenih i odseljenih neznatnija, dobna struktura starija a relativan odnos između spolova neujednačeniji.ln this paper the author presents the basic demographic features of 54 middle Croatian towns divided into three groups; "bigger", "middle" and "smaller" middle towns. All the groups mentioned and each town itself have been separately analysed in the same way. Census trends and a type of general population trend in the period from 1981 to 1991 has been presented, its natural trend (1981-1996), as well as the basic population characteristics in these towns according to education, activiiy and sector of work. Apart from the fact that the analysed features of certain towns in each group indicate substantial differences, the results obtained also differ among the basic groups of middle towns. Thus, the "middle" group of towns stands out with relatively more satisfactory demographic features than the other two town groups. Namely, in "bigger" and "smaller" middle towns the average population growth was lower, natural growth lesser, the difference between those who settled and moved away smaller, the age structure older and the relative relationship between sexes more uneven.ln dieser Arbeit werden die demographischen Hauptmerkmale der 54 mittelgroBen Stčdte Kroatiens, die in drei Gruppen: "groBere", "mittiere" und "kleinere" unterteilt sind, aufgezeigt. Alle angefOhrten Untergruppen und jede Stadt fOr sich wurden auf dieselbe Weise analysiert. Der Autor verweist auf statistische Daten und den Typus allgemeiner Bevolkerungsdynamik im Zeitraum 1981-1991, ferner auf die natorliche Bevolkerungsdynamik im seiben Zeitraum sowie die Hauptmerkmale der Bevčlkerunq in diesen Stčdten, die ausgehend vom Ausbildungsgrad, Beschčftigungsstatus und Wirkungsbereich bestimmt werden. Die analysierten Merkmale unterscheiden sich wesentlich von Stadt zu Stadt, von Bevolkerungsgruppe zu Bevolkerungsgruppe, aber auch zwischen den Hauptgruppen der mittelgroBen Stčdte. Man erhielt so eine "mittiere" Stčdtegruppe mit demographischen Merkmalen, die relotiv gOnstiger ausgeprčgt sind als in den Obrigen beiden Stčdtegruppen. In den Gruppen der "groBeren" und "kleineren" mitte/groBen Stčdte Kroatiens waren das durchschnittliche und das natorliche Bevolkerungswachstum nčmlich geringer, ebenso der Unterschied zwischen Neusiedlern und Abgewanderten, ferner lag das Durchschnittsalter hčher und das relative Verhčltnis zwischen den Geschlechtern war unausgeglichener

Osnovna demografska obilježja suvremenog iseljavanja iz Hrvatske

Posljednjih godina negativni trendovi demografskog razvoja Hrvatske poprimili su dramatične razmjere čime smo se našli u krugu europskih zemalja s najnepovoljnijim demografskim procesima, trendovima, odnosima i strukturama

Basic Demographic Processes in Croatia

U radu se razmatraju glavni demografski procesi u suvremenom razvoju hrvatskog stanovništva: ukupna, prirodna i emigracijska depopulacija i demografsko starenje. Objašnjava se međusobna kauzalnost procesa opće i parcijalne depopulacije. Rezultati upućuju na njihove dalekosežne negativne posljedice u budućem razvoju hrvatskog stanovništva.The paper describes the basic processes of contemporary development of the Croatian population: total, natural and emigrational depopulation and demographic ageing. The causal connection between the processes of general and partial depopulation is explained and the results indicate their far-reaching unfavourable effects to the future development of Croatian population

Chosen socio-demographic indicators of the development of Croatia and Croatian counties

Procesi i trendovi u razvoju stanovništva (napose strukturnom) nameću se značajnim okvirom ili odrednicom gospodarskoga razvoja. Oni su istodobno i razmjerno pouzdani indikatori ukupne društveno-gospodarske razvijenosti na nekom prostoru. Sociodemografski indikatori analizirani i prikazani u ovome prilogu važni su za ocjenu dosegnute razine društveno-gospodarske razvijenosti Hrvatske, ali i regionalnih aspekata toga razvoja s obzirom na signifikantne razlike koje u vrijednosti pojedinih indikatora postoje među hrvatskim županijama. Kao reprezentativni sociodemografski indikatori na razini Hrvatske i županija izdvojeni su: indeks promjene broja stanovnika izme|u 1991. i 2001. godine, indeks starenja, koeficijent ukupne dobne ovisnosti, opća stopa aktivnosti ukupnog stanovništva, stopa zaposlenosti, stopa nezaposlenosti i “indeks obrazovanosti”. Rangirajući županije prema navedenim indikatorima, može se ustanoviti njihova hijerarhija, s dva jasno istaknuta pola: Međimurskom i šibensko-kninskom županijom. Prema većini izdvojenih sociodemografskih indikatora, naročito s obzirom na op}u stopu aktivnosti, indeks starenja te stopu zaposlenosti i nezaposlenosti, Međimurska se županija može apostrofirati kao županija s najvišom dosegnutom razinom društveno-gospodarske razvijenosti, i to kako u odnosu na druge hrvatske županije, tako i u odnosu na Hrvatsku u cijelosti.The processes and trends in the population development (especially in structural development) became the very important determinant of the economic development. Those processes are also relatively reliable indicators of total socio – economic development in certain region. Socio – economic indicators, analysed and shown in this paper are important for evaluation of the reached level of socio – economic development of Croatia. The mentioned indicators are also important for the evaluation of regional socio – economic development of Croatia, due to significant differences in certain indicators among Croatian counties. The following representative socio – demographic indicators for both, Croatia in general and Croatian counties are selected: index of population change for the period 1991 – 2001, index of ageing, coefficient of total age dependence, general rate of activity of total population, employment rate, unemployment rate and “index of education”. By ranking the counties according to the mentioned indicators, the hierarchy with two clearly defined poles can be established. Those poles are Me|imurje county and Šibenik – Knin county. With the consideration of the most of selected socio – economic indicators, especially general activity rate, index of ageing and rates of employment and unemployment, the county of Međimurje can be shown as the county with the highest level of socio – economic development, in relation to other Croatian counties, as well as to Croatia in general

Bevölkerungsverlust im Aggressionskrieg (1991–95) als bestimmender Faktor der Entvölkerung Kroatiens im Zeitraum 1991–2001

Svrha je ovoga istra`ivanja na temelju dostupnih, ali necjelovitih, podataka utvrditi/procijeniti veli~inu i strukturu demografskih gubitaka tijekom rata, poglavito u domeni izravnih i migracijskih gubitaka stanovni{tva te gubitaka nataliteta. Cilj je studije ustanoviti uzro~no-posljedi~nu povezanost izme|u ratnih demografskih gubitaka te pojave i produbljenja depopulacijskih procesa u domeni prirodnoga i ukupnoga kretanja stanovni{tva Hrvatske. Ratni demografski gubitci Hrvatske tijekom Domovinskog rata name}u se kao zna~ajan ~imbenik suvremenih tendencija u razvoju stanovni{tva, poglavito u pojavi i produbljenju prirodne i ukupne depopulacije stanovni{tva. Utvrdili smo da su ukupni demografski ratni gubitci Hrvatske izme|u 1991. i 2001. godine iznosili 450.276 stanovnika. U strukturi tih gubitaka, migracijski gubitci ~ine 92,94%, ratni mortalitet 4,93%, a gubitci nataliteta 2,13%. Umanjimo li iskazane demografske ratne gubitke za kontingent doseljenih u Hrvatsku izme|u 1991. i 2001. godine (232.966 osoba), dobivamo neto bilancu demografskih gubitaka od 217.310 osoba.The purpose of this research is to determine/assess, based on accessible, but incomplete data, the extent and structure of demographic losses during the war, first and foremost in the domain of direct and migrational population losses and natality losses. The aim of the study is to uncover the causal connection between war demographic losses and the occurrence and strengthening of depopulation processes in the domain of natural and total population trends in Croatia. Croatia\u27s war demographic losses during the Homeland War are a significant factor of contemporary population development tendencies, especially in the emergence and intensification of the natural and total depopulation processes. It has been determined that the total demographic war losses in Croatia between 1991 and 2001 amounted to 450 276 inhabitants. In the structure of these losses, migrational losses comprise 92.94%, war mortality 4.93%, and natality losses 2.13%. If the mentioned demographic war losses are reduced by the contingent of immigrants into Croatia between 1991 and 2001 (232 966 persons), we have a net balance of demographic losses comprising 217 310 persons.Das Ziel dieser Arbeit ist, aufgrund verfügbarer, aber unvollständiger Angaben das Ausmaß und die Struktur des Bevölkerungsverlustes während des Krieges (1991–95) zu ermitteln/einzuschätzen, was sich vor allem auf die Zahl der unmittelbaren Kriegsopfer, auf Flüchtlinge und Vertriebene sowie auf den Geburtenrückgang bezieht. Die Verfasser möchten dem kausalen Zusammenhang zwischen den durch das Kriegsgeschehen verursachten Bevölkerungsverlusten einerseits und den sich verschärfenden Entvölkerungsprozessen innerhalb der natürlichen Gesamtbevölkerungsentwicklung in Kroatien andererseits auf den Grund gehen. Der durch das Kriegsgeschehen ausgelöste Rückgang der Bevölkerungszahlen erweist sich als wesentlich bestimmend für die aktuellen Tendenzen innerhalb der Bevölkerungsentwicklung, zumal hinsichtlich der sich intensivierenden natürlichen Gesamtentvölkerungstendenz. Der durch den Krieg verursachte Gesamtbevölkerungsverlust in Kroatien zwischen 1991 und 2001 betrug nach Ermittlung der Verfasser 450.276 Personen. Der durch Migration entstandene Verlust macht 92,94% aus, die Zahl der Todesfälle macht 4,93% aus, der Rückgang der Geburtenzahlen wiederum 2,13%. Zieht man davon das Kontingent der zwischen 1991 und 2001 Zugewanderten (232.966 Personen) ab, beträgt die Nettobilanz des Gesamtbevölkerungsverlustes 217.310 Personen

Bevölkerungsverlust im Aggressionskrieg (1991–95) als bestimmender Faktor der Entvölkerung Kroatiens im Zeitraum 1991–2001

Svrha je ovoga istra`ivanja na temelju dostupnih, ali necjelovitih, podataka utvrditi/procijeniti veli~inu i strukturu demografskih gubitaka tijekom rata, poglavito u domeni izravnih i migracijskih gubitaka stanovni{tva te gubitaka nataliteta. Cilj je studije ustanoviti uzro~no-posljedi~nu povezanost izme|u ratnih demografskih gubitaka te pojave i produbljenja depopulacijskih procesa u domeni prirodnoga i ukupnoga kretanja stanovni{tva Hrvatske. Ratni demografski gubitci Hrvatske tijekom Domovinskog rata name}u se kao zna~ajan ~imbenik suvremenih tendencija u razvoju stanovni{tva, poglavito u pojavi i produbljenju prirodne i ukupne depopulacije stanovni{tva. Utvrdili smo da su ukupni demografski ratni gubitci Hrvatske izme|u 1991. i 2001. godine iznosili 450.276 stanovnika. U strukturi tih gubitaka, migracijski gubitci ~ine 92,94%, ratni mortalitet 4,93%, a gubitci nataliteta 2,13%. Umanjimo li iskazane demografske ratne gubitke za kontingent doseljenih u Hrvatsku izme|u 1991. i 2001. godine (232.966 osoba), dobivamo neto bilancu demografskih gubitaka od 217.310 osoba.The purpose of this research is to determine/assess, based on accessible, but incomplete data, the extent and structure of demographic losses during the war, first and foremost in the domain of direct and migrational population losses and natality losses. The aim of the study is to uncover the causal connection between war demographic losses and the occurrence and strengthening of depopulation processes in the domain of natural and total population trends in Croatia. Croatia\u27s war demographic losses during the Homeland War are a significant factor of contemporary population development tendencies, especially in the emergence and intensification of the natural and total depopulation processes. It has been determined that the total demographic war losses in Croatia between 1991 and 2001 amounted to 450 276 inhabitants. In the structure of these losses, migrational losses comprise 92.94%, war mortality 4.93%, and natality losses 2.13%. If the mentioned demographic war losses are reduced by the contingent of immigrants into Croatia between 1991 and 2001 (232 966 persons), we have a net balance of demographic losses comprising 217 310 persons.Das Ziel dieser Arbeit ist, aufgrund verfügbarer, aber unvollständiger Angaben das Ausmaß und die Struktur des Bevölkerungsverlustes während des Krieges (1991–95) zu ermitteln/einzuschätzen, was sich vor allem auf die Zahl der unmittelbaren Kriegsopfer, auf Flüchtlinge und Vertriebene sowie auf den Geburtenrückgang bezieht. Die Verfasser möchten dem kausalen Zusammenhang zwischen den durch das Kriegsgeschehen verursachten Bevölkerungsverlusten einerseits und den sich verschärfenden Entvölkerungsprozessen innerhalb der natürlichen Gesamtbevölkerungsentwicklung in Kroatien andererseits auf den Grund gehen. Der durch das Kriegsgeschehen ausgelöste Rückgang der Bevölkerungszahlen erweist sich als wesentlich bestimmend für die aktuellen Tendenzen innerhalb der Bevölkerungsentwicklung, zumal hinsichtlich der sich intensivierenden natürlichen Gesamtentvölkerungstendenz. Der durch den Krieg verursachte Gesamtbevölkerungsverlust in Kroatien zwischen 1991 und 2001 betrug nach Ermittlung der Verfasser 450.276 Personen. Der durch Migration entstandene Verlust macht 92,94% aus, die Zahl der Todesfälle macht 4,93% aus, der Rückgang der Geburtenzahlen wiederum 2,13%. Zieht man davon das Kontingent der zwischen 1991 und 2001 Zugewanderten (232.966 Personen) ab, beträgt die Nettobilanz des Gesamtbevölkerungsverlustes 217.310 Personen