Evaluation of a Medicaid Lock-in Program

Background: "Lock-in" programs (LIPs) identify beneficiaries demonstrating potential overutilization of opioids, and other controlled substances, and restrict their access to these medications. LIPs are expanding to address the opioid crisis and could be an effective tool for connecting people to opioid use disorder treatment. We examined the immediate and sustained effects of a Medicaid LIP on overdose risk and use of medication-assisted treatment (MAT) for opioid use disorder. Methods: We analyzed North Carolina Medicaid claims from July 2009 through June 2013. We estimated daily risk differences and ratios of MAT use and overdose during lock-in and following release from the program, compared with periods before program enrollment. Results: The daily probability of MAT use during lock-in and following release was greater, when compared with a period just before LIP enrollment [daily risk ratios: 1.50, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.18-1.91; 2.27, 95% CI: 1.07-4.80; respectively]. Beneficiaries' average overdose risk while enrolled in the program and following release was similar to their risk just before enrollment (daily risk ratios: 1.01, 95% CI: 0.79-1.28; 1.12, 95% CI: 0.82-1.54; respectively). Discussion: North Carolina's Medicaid LIP was associated with increased use of MAT during enrollment, and this increase was sustained in the year following release from the program. However, we did not observe parallel reductions in overdose risk during lock-in and following release. Identifying facilitators of MAT access and use among this population, as well as potential barriers to overdose reduction are important next steps to ensuring effective LIP design

Connections Between Opioids and Road Injury: Linkage of Prescription Monitoring and Crash Databases

Road traffic injuries and drug overdoses are the two leading causes of injury death in the U.S. In 2017, these two mechanisms were responsible for more than 100,000 deaths. Perhaps more importantly, these two leading causes of injury are closely interconnected. Opioids and other drugs affect driving abilities (e.g., reaction time, alertness, concentration) and crash-related injuries often result in opioid prescribing, creating a potential feedback loop from crash to injury to pain to opioid use and back to crash. At any given time, about 20% of drivers have a potentially impairing drug in their system

Sociodemographic and Clinical Predictors of Prescription Opioid Use in a Longitudinal Community-Based Cohort Study of Middle-Aged and Older Adults

Objectives: Identifying factors associated with opioid use in middle-aged and older adults is a fundamental step in the mitigation of potentially unnecessary opioid consumption and opioid-related harms. Methods: Using longitudinal data on a community-based cohort of adults aged 50–90 years residing in Johnston County, North Carolina, we examined sociodemographic and clinical factors in non-opioid users (n = 786) at baseline (2006–2010) as predictors of opioid use at follow-up (2013–2015). Variables included age, sex, race, obesity, educational attainment, employment status, household poverty rate, marital status, depressive symptoms, social support, pain catastrophizing, pain sensitivity, insurance status, polypharmacy, and smoking status. Results: At follow-up, 13% of participants were using prescription opioids. In the multivariable model, high pain catastrophizing (adjusted odds ratio; 95% confidence interval = 2.14; 1.33–3.46), polypharmacy (2.08; 1.23–3.53), and history of depressive symptoms (2.00; 1.19–3.38) were independent markers of opioid use. Discussion: Findings support the assessment of these modifiable factors during clinical encounters in patients ≥ 50 years old with chronic pain

Methodologic limitations of prescription opioid safety research and recommendations for improving the evidence base

Purpose: The ongoing opioid epidemic has claimed more than a quarter million Americans' lives over the past 15 years. The epidemic began with an escalation of prescription opioid deaths and has now evolved to include secondary waves of illicit heroin and fentanyl deaths, while the deaths due to prescription opioid overdoses are still increasing. In response, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) moved to limit opioid prescribing with the release of opioid prescribing guidelines for chronic noncancer pain in March 2016. The guidelines represent a logical and timely federal response to this growing crisis. However, CDC acknowledged that the evidence base linking opioid prescribing to opioid use disorders and overdose was grades 3 and 4. Methods: Motivated by the need to strengthen the evidence base, this review details limitations of the opioid safety studies cited in the CDC guidelines with a focus on methodological limitations related to internal and external validity. Results: Internal validity concerns were related to poor confounding control, variable misclassification, selection bias, competing risks, and potential competing interventions. External validity concerns arose from the use of limited source populations, historical data (in a fast-changing epidemic), and issues with handling of cancer and acute pain patients' data. We provide a nonexhaustive list of 7 recommendations to address these limitations in future opioid safety studies. Conclusion: Strengthening the opioid safety evidence base will aid any future revisions of the CDC guidelines and enhance their prevention impact

Potential injuries and costs averted by increased use of evidence-based behavioral road safety policies in North Carolina

Objective: The purpose of this study was to estimate the potential injuries and costs that could be averted by implementing evidence-based road safety policies and interventions not currently utilized in one U.S. state, North Carolina (NC). NC consistently has annual motor vehicle-related death rates above the national average. Methods: We used the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Motor Vehicle Prioritizing Interventions and Cost Calculator for States (MV PICCS) tool as a foundation for examining the potential injuries and costs that could be averted from underutilized evidence-based policies, assuming a $1.5 million implementation budget and that income generated from policy-related fines and fees would help offset costs. We further examined costs by payer source. Results: Model results indicated that seven interventions should be prioritized for implementation in NC: increased alcohol ignition interlock use, increased seat belt fines, in-person license renewal for ages 70 and older, license plate impoundment, seat belt enforcement campaigns, saturation patrols, and speed cameras. Increasing the seat belt fine had the potential to avert the greatest number of fatal (n = 70) and non-fatal (n = 6,597) injuries annually, along with being the most cost-effective of the recommended interventions. Collectively, the seven recommended evidence-based policies/interventions have the potential to avert 302 fatal injuries, 16,607 non-fatal injuries, and$839 million annually in NC with the greatest costs averted for insurers. Conclusions: This study demonstrates the utility of the MV PICCS tool as a foundation for exploring state-specific impacts that could be realized through increased evidence-based road safety policy and intervention implementation. For NC, we found that increasing the seat belt fine would avert the most injuries, and had the greatest financial benefits for the state, and the lowest implementation costs. Incorporating fines and fees into policy implementation can create important financial feedbacks that allow for implementation of additional evidence-based and cost-effective policies/interventions. Given the recent uptick in U.S. motor vehicle-related deaths, analyses informed by the MV PICCS tool can help researchers and policy makers initiate discussions about successful state-specific strategies for reducing the burden of crashes

Z-Score Burden Metric: A Method for Assessing Burden of Injury and Disease

Introduction: Traditional methods of summarizing burden of disease have limitations in terms of identifying communities within a population that are in need of prevention and intervention resources. This paper proposes a new method of burden assessment for use in guiding these decisions. Methods: This new method for assessing burden utilizes the sum of population-weighted age-specific z-scores. This new Z-Score Burden Metric was applied to firearm-related deaths in North Carolina counties using 2010‒2017 North Carolina Violent Death Reporting System data. The Z-Score Burden Metric consists of 4 measures describing various aspects of burden. The Z-Score Burden Metric Overall Burden Measure was compared with 2 traditional measures (unadjusted and age-adjusted death rates) for each county to assess similarities and differences in the relative burden of firearm-related death. Results: Of all 100 North Carolina counties, 73 met inclusion criteria (≥5 actual and expected deaths during the study period in each age strata). Ranking by the Overall Burden Measure produced an ordering of counties different from that of ranking by traditional measures. A total of 8 counties (11.0%) differed in burden rank by at least 10% when comparing the Overall Burden Measure with age-adjusted and unadjusted rates. All the counties with large differences between the measures were substantially burdened by firearm-related death. Conclusions: The use of the Z-Score Burden Metric provides an alternative way of measuring realized community burden of injury while still facilitating comparisons between communities with different age distributions. This method can be used for any injury or disease outcome and may help to prioritize the allocation of resources to communities suffering high burdens of injury and disease

Trends in unintentional polysubstance overdose deaths and individual and community correlates of polysubstance overdose, North Carolina, 2009-2018

Background: Polysubstance involvement is increasing among fatal drug overdoses. However, little is known about the epidemiology of polysubstance drug overdoses. This paper describes emerging trends in unintentional polysubstance overdose deaths in North Carolina (NC) and examines associations with individual and community factors. Methods: Using 2009–2018 NC death certificate data, we identified unintentional drug overdose deaths and commonly involved substances (opioids, stimulants, benzodiazepines, alcohol, and antiepileptics). We examined polysubstance combinations, comparing opioid and non-opioid involved deaths. We examined individual level correlates from death certificate data and community level correlates from the American Community Survey and Robert Wood Johnson Foundation County Health Rankings to quantify associations. Results: From 2009–2018, 53 % of opioid and 19 % of non-opioid overdose deaths involved multiple substances. During this period, polysubstance overdose death increased dramatically, from 2.9 to 12.1 per 100,000 persons, with the greatest increases among drug combinations involving stimulants. The most common polysubstance combinations were: opioids and stimulants (12.1 % of overdose deaths); opioids and benzodiazepines (9.0 %); opioids and alcohol (5.1 %); opioids, stimulants, and benzodiazepines (3.1 %); and opioids, benzodiazepines, and antiepileptics (2.2 %). Compared to overdoses involving opioids alone, overdoses involving combinations of opioids, stimulants, and benzodiazepines involved younger individuals (53.7 % in 15−34 years of age vs. 40.7 %). Men comprised two-thirds of overdoses involving opioids alone, however, overdoses involving opioids, benzodiazepines, and antiepileptics were predominantly among women (60.6 %). Conclusions: Polysubstance involvement has increased among overdose deaths in NC. These findings can be used to inform public health interventions addressing polysubstance deaths and associated individual and community level factors

Health Care Utilization and Comorbidity History of North Carolina Medicaid Beneficiaries in a Controlled Substance "Lock-in" Program

BACKGROUND Medicaid "lock-in" programs (MLIPs) are a widely used strategy for addressing potential misuse of prescription drugs among beneficiary populations. However, little is known about the health care needs and attributes of beneficiaries selected into these programs. Our goal was to understand the characteristics of those eligible, enrolled, and retained in a state MLIP. METHODS Demographics, comorbidities, and health care utilization were extracted from Medicaid claims from June 2009 through June 2013. Beneficiaries enrolled in North Carolina's MLIP were compared to those who were MLIP-eligible, but not enrolled. Among enrolled beneficiaries, those completing the 12-month MLIP were compared to those who exited prior to 12 months. RESULTS Compared to beneficiaries who were eligible for, but not enrolled in the MLIP (N = 11,983), enrolled beneficiaries (N = 5,424) were more likely to have: 1) substance use (23% versus 14%) and mental health disorders, 2) obtained controlled substances from multiple pharmacies, and 3) visited more emergency departments (mean: 8.3 versus 4.2 in the year prior to enrollment). One-third (N = 1,776) of those enrolled in the MLIP exited the program prior to completion. LIMITATIONS Accurate information on unique prescribers visited by beneficiaries was unavailable. Time enrolled in Medicaid differed for beneficiaries, which may have led to underestimation of covariate prevalence. CONCLUSIONS North Carolina's MLIP appears to be successful in identifying subpopulations that may benefit from provision and coordination of services, such as substance abuse and mental health services. However, there are challenges in retaining this population for the entire MLIP duration

Association Between Medical Diagnoses and Suicide in a Medicaid Beneficiary Population, North Carolina 2014–2017

Background: Firearms are used in about half of U.S. suicides. This study investigated how various medical diagnoses are associated with firearm and nonfirearm suicide. Methods: We used a case–control design including n = 691 North Carolina Medicaid beneficiaries who died from suicide between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2017 as cases. We selected a total of n = 68,682 controls (~1:100 case–control ratio from North Carolina Medicaid member files using incidence density sampling methods). We linked Medicaid claims to the North Carolina Violent Death Reporting System to ascertain suicide and means (firearm or nonfirearm). We matched cases and controls on number of months covered by Medicaid over the past 36 months. Analyses adjusted for sex, race, age, Supplemental Security Income status, the Charlson Comorbidity Index, and frequency of health care encounters. Results: The case–control odds ratios for any mental health disorder were 4.2 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.3, 5.2) for nonfirearm suicide and 2.2 (95% CI: 1.7, 2.9) for firearm suicide. There was effect measure modification by sex and race. Behavioral health diagnoses were more strongly associated with nonfirearm suicides than firearm suicide in men but did not differ substantially in women. The association of mental health and substance use diagnoses with suicides appeared to be weaker in Blacks (vs. non-Blacks), but the estimates were imprecise. Conclusion: Behavioral health diagnoses are important indicators of risk of suicide. However, these associations differ by means of suicide and sex, and associations for firearm-related suicide are weaker in men than women

Suicide typologies among Medicaid beneficiaries, North Carolina 2014–2017

Background: There is a well-established need for population-based screening strategies to identify people at risk of suicide. Because only about half of suicide decedents are ever diagnosed with a behavioral health condition, it may be necessary for providers to consider life circumstances that may also put individuals at risk. This study described the alignment of medical diagnoses with life circumstances by identifying suicide typologies among decedents. Demographics, stressful life events, suicidal behavior, perceived and diagnosed health problems, and suicide method contributed to the typologies. Methods: This study linked North Carolina Medicaid and North Carolina Violent Death Reporting System (NC-VDRS) data for analysis in 2020. For suicide decedents from 2014 to 2017 aged 25–54 years, we analyzed 12 indicators of life circumstances from NC-VDRS and 6 indicators from Medicaid claims, using a latent class model. Separate models were developed for men and women. Results: Most decedents were White (88.3%), with a median age of 41, and over 70% had a health care visit in the 90 days prior to suicide. Two typologies were identified in both males (n = 175) and females (n = 153). Both typologies had similar profiles of life circumstances, but one had high probabilities of diagnosed behavioral health conditions (45% of men, 71% of women), compared to low probabilities in the other (55% of men, 29% of women). Black beneficiaries and men who died by firearm were over-represented in the less-diagnosed class, though estimates were imprecise (odds ratio for Black men: 3.1, 95% confidence interval: 0.8, 12.4; odds ratio for Black women: 5.0, 95% confidence interval: 0.9, 31.2; odds ratio for male firearm decedents: 1.6, 95% confidence interval: 0.7, 3.4). Conclusions: Nearly half of suicide decedents have a typology characterized by low probability of diagnosis of behavioral health conditions. Suicide screening could likely be enhanced using improved indicators of lived experience and behavioral health