Dynamical Malaria Forecasts Are Skillful at Regional and Local Scales in Uganda up to 4 Months Ahead.

Malaria forecasts from dynamical systems have never been attempted at the health district or local clinic catchment scale, and so their usefulness for public health preparedness and response at the local level is fundamentally unknown. A pilot preoperational forecasting system is introduced in which the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction system and seasonal climate forecasts of temperature and rainfall are used to drive the uncalibrated dynamical malaria model VECTRI to predict anomalies in transmission intensity 4 months ahead. It is demonstrated that the system has statistically significant skill at a number of sentinel sites in Uganda with high-quality data. Skill is also found at approximately 50% of the Ugandan health districts despite inherent uncertainties of unconfirmed health reports. A cost-loss economic analysis at three example sentinel sites indicates that the forecast system can have a positive economic benefit across a broad range of intermediate cost-loss ratios and frequency of transmission anomalies. We argue that such an analysis is a necessary first step in the attempt to translate climate-driven malaria information to policy-relevant decisions

Whether weather matters: Evidence of association between in utero meteorological exposures and foetal growth among Indigenous and non-Indigenous mothers in rural Uganda

Pregnancy and birth outcomes have been found to be sensitive to meteorological variation, yet few studies explore this relationship in sub-Saharan Africa where infant mortality rates are the highest in the world. We address this research gap by examining the association between meteorological factors and birth weight in a rural population in southwestern Uganda. Our study included hospital birth records (n = 3197) from 2012 to 2015, for which we extracted meteorological exposure data for the three trimesters preceding each birth. We used linear regression, controlling for key covariates, to estimate the timing, strength, and direction of meteorological effects on birth weight. Our results indicated that precipitation during the third trimester had a positive association with birth weight, with more frequent days of precipitation associated with higher birth weight: we observed a 3.1g (95% CI: 1.0–5.3g) increase in birth weight per additional day of exposure to rainfall over 5mm. Increases in average daily temperature during the third trimester were also associated with birth weight, with an increase of 41.8g (95% CI: 0.6–82.9g) per additional degree Celsius. When the sample was stratified by season of birth, only infants born between June and November experienced a significant associated between meteorological exposures and birth weight. The association of meteorological variation with foetal growth seemed to differ by ethnicity; effect sizes of meteorological were greater among an Indigenous subset of the population, in particular for variation in temperature. Effects in all populations in this study are higher than estimates of the African continental average, highlighting the heterogeneity in the vulnerability of infant health to meteorological variation in different contexts. Our results indicate that while there is an association between meteorological variation and birth weight, the magnitude of these associations may vary across ethnic groups with differential socioeconomic resources, with implications for interventions to reduce these gradients and offset the health impacts predicted under climate change

You pray to your God: A qualitative analysis of challenges in the provision of safe, timely, and affordable surgical care in Uganda

Background: Five billion people lack access to safe, affordable, and timely surgical and anesthesia care. Significant challenges remain in the provision of surgical care in low-resource settings. Uganda is no exception. Methods: From September to November 2016, we conducted a mixed-methods countrywide surgical capacity assessment at 17 randomly selected public hospitals in Uganda. Researchers conducted 35 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders to understand factors related to the provision of surgical care. The framework approach was used for thematic and explanatory data analysis. Results: The Ugandan public health care sector continues to face significant challenges in the provision of safe, timely, and affordable surgical care. These challenges can be broadly grouped into preparedness and policy, service delivery, and the financial burden of surgical care. Hospital staff reported challenges including: (1) significant delays in accessing surgical care, compounded by a malfunctioning referral system; (2) critical workforce shortages; (3) operative capacity that is limited by inadequate infrastructure and overwhelmed by emergency and obstetric volume; (4) supply chain difficulties pertaining to provision of essential medications, equipment, supplies, and blood; (5) significant, variable, and sometimes catastrophic expenditures for surgical patients and their families; and (6) a lack of surgery-specific policies and priorities. Despite these challenges, innovative strategies are being used in the public to provide surgical care to those most in need. Conclusion: Barriers to the provision of surgical care are cross-cutting and involve constraints in infrastructure, service delivery, workforce, and financing. Understanding current strengths and shortfalls of Uganda’s surgical system is a critical first step in developing effective, targeted policy and programming that will build and strengthen its surgical capacity

'We are all serving the same Ugandans' : A nationwide mixed-methods evaluation of private sector surgical capacity in Uganda

Introduction Half of all Ugandans (49%) turn to the private or private-not-for-profit (PNFP) sectors when faced with illness, yet little is known about the capacity of these sectors to deliver surgical services. We partnered with the Ministry of Health to conduct a nationwide mixed-methods evaluation of private and PNFP surgical capacity in Uganda. Methods A standardized validated facility assessment tool was utilized to assess facility infrastructure, service delivery, workforce, information management, and financing at a randomized nationally representative sample of 16 private and PNFP hospitals. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to qualitatively explore facilitating factors and barriers to surgical, obstetric and anaesthesia (SOA) care. Hospitals walk-throughs and retrospective reviews of operative logbooks were completed. Results Hospitals had a median of 177 beds and two operating rooms. Ten hospitals (62.5%) were able to perform all Bellwether procedures (cesarean section, laparotomy and open fracture treatment). Thirty-day surgical volume averaged 102 cases per facility. While most hospitals had electricity, oxygen, running water, and necessary equipment, many reported pervasive shortages of blood, surgical consumables, and anesthetic drugs. Several themes emerged from the qualitative analysis: (1) geographic distance and limited transportation options delay reaching care; (2) workforce shortages impede the delivery of surgical care; (3) emergency and obstetric volume overwhelm the surgical system; (4) medical and non-medical costs delay seeking, reaching, and receiving care; and (5) there is poor coordination of care with insufficient support systems. Conclusion As in Uganda's public sector, barriers to surgery in private and PNFP hospitals in Uganda are cross-cutting and closely tied to resource availability. Critical policy and programmatic developments are essential to build and strengthen Ugandan surgical capacity across all sectors

Identifying Predictors for Minimum Dietary Diversity and Minimum Meal Frequency in Children Aged 6–23 Months in Uganda

Adequate complementary foods contribute to good health and growth in young children. However, many countries are still off-track in achieving critical complementary feeding indicators, such as minimum meal frequency (MMF), minimum dietary diversity (MDD) and minimum acceptable diet (MAD). In this study, we used the 2016 Ugandan Demographic Health Survey (UDHS) data to assess child feeding practices in young children aged 6–23 months. We assess and describe complementary feeding indicators (MMF, MDD and MAD) for Uganda, considering geographic variation. We construct multivariable logistic regression models—stratified by age—to evaluate four theorized predictors of MMF and MDD: health status, vaccination status, household wealth and female empowerment. Our findings show an improvement of complementary feeding practice indicators in Uganda compared to the past, although the MAD threshold was reached by only 22% of children. Children who did not achieve 1 or more complementary feeding indicators are primarily based in the northern regions of Uganda. Cereals and roots were the foods most consumed daily by young children (80%), while eggs were rarely eaten. Consistent with our hypotheses, we found that health status, vaccination status and wealth were significantly positively associated with MDD and MMF, while female empowerment was not. Improving nutrition in infant and young children is a priority. Urgent nutritional policies and acceptable interventions are needed to guarantee nutritious and age-appropriate complementary foods to each Ugandan child in the first years of life

‘We don't use the same ways to treat the illness:’ A qualitative study of heterogeneity in health-seeking behaviour for acute gastrointestinal illness among the Ugandan Batwa

The Batwa (Twa), an Indigenous People of southwest Uganda, were evicted from their ancestral forest lands in 1991 due to establishment of the Bwindi Impenetrable Forest. This land dispossession forced Batwa to transition from a semi-nomadic, hunting-gathering livelihood to an agricultural livelihood; eliminated access to Indigenous food, medicines, and shelter; and shifted their healthcare options. Therefore, this exploratory study investigated why Batwa choose Indigenous or biomedical treatment, or no treatment, when experiencing acute gastrointestinal illness. Ten gender-stratified focus groups were conducted in five Batwa settlements in Kanungu District, Uganda (n = 63 participants), alongside eleven semi-structured interviews (2014). Qualitative data were analysed thematically, using a constant comparative method. Batwa emphasised that health-seeking behaviour for acute gastrointestinal illness was diverse: some Batwa used only Indigenous or biomedical healthcare, while others preferred a combination, or no healthcare. Physical and economic access to care, and also perceived efficacy and quality of care, influenced their healthcare decisions. This study provides insight into the Kanungu District Batwa's perceptions of biomedical and Indigenous healthcare, and barriers they experience to accessing either. This study is intended to inform public health interventions to reduce their burden of acute gastrointestinal illness and ensure adequate healthcare, biomedical or Indigenous, for Batwa