Risk Mitigation through Diversified Farm Production Strategies: The Case in Northern Mozambique

Mozambique, like many other parts of the low-income world, faces perennial challenges with food security. With a rapidly growing population and arable land on the decline, sustainable agriculture is vital to managing the already depleted natural resources of Sub-Saharan Africa more effectively while increasing food security. Food security issues for subsistence farmers in most low-income countries are a product of endogenous (crop yields) and exogenous (currency fluctuations as many agricultural inputs are imported) factors. In Mozambique the value of the local currency, meticals, has decreased by approximately 50% since January 2015 compared to the U.S. dollar. While this makes exporting products out of Mozambique more attractive in a relative sense, it negatively effects those industries which rely on imported inputs such as animal feed and inorganic fertilizer. In response to this exogenous currency crisis, research was conducted in Nampula, Mozambique during the summer of 2016 on a method for implementing crop diversification to reduce the risk that accompanies the devaluation of the metical. This research was undertaken on a poultry operation which is heavily dependent on imported maize and soya. Similar to the market structure of the poultry industry in the United States, all birds are grown by individual out growers who typically also have small plots of land to farm. Objectives for the project included 1) perform on-site crop production evaluations, 2) determine profitability for various row crops, and 3) simulate alternative production practices to increase crop profitability. Of the crops grown (tomatoes, maize, and cabbage), maize required the least labor, lowest initial investment, and the highest probability of breaking even. This research concluded that if poultry producers in Mozambique who rely on imported feed grew maize simultaneously it would reduce the dependency on imported maize and reduce income variability associated with exogenous currency fluctuations. Implementing a program such as this could increase revenue streams as well as reduce variability, thereby enhancing regional food securit

Risk Mitigation through Diversified Farm Production Strategies: The Case in Northern Mozambique

Mozambique, like many other parts of the low-income world, faces perennial challenges with food security. With a rapidly growing population and arable land on the decline, sustainable agriculture is vital to managing the already depleted natural resources of Sub-Saharan Africa more effectively while increasing food security. Food security issues for subsistence farmers in most low-income countries are a product of endogenous (crop yields) and exogenous (currency fluctuations as many agricultural inputs are imported) factors. In Mozambique the value of the local currency, meticals, has decreased by approximately 50% since January 2015 compared to the U.S. dollar. While this makes exporting products out of Mozambique more attractive in a relative sense, it negatively effects those industries which rely on imported inputs such as animal feed and inorganic fertilizer. In response to this exogenous currency crisis, research was conducted in Nampula, Mozambique during the summer of 2016 on a method for implementing crop diversification to reduce the risk that accompanies the devaluation of the metical. This research was undertaken on a poultry operation which is heavily dependent on imported maize and soya. Similar to the market structure of the poultry industry in the United States, all birds are grown by individual out growers who typically also have small plots of land to farm. Objectives for the project included 1) perform on-site crop production evaluations, 2) determine profitability for various row crops, and 3) simulate alternative production practices to increase crop profitability. Of the crops grown (tomatoes, maize, and cabbage), maize required the least labor, lowest initial investment, and the highest probability of breaking even. This research concluded that if poultry producers in Mozambique who rely on imported feed grew maize simultaneously it would reduce the dependency on imported maize and reduce income variability associated with exogenous currency fluctuations. Implementing a program such as this could increase revenue streams as well as reduce variability, thereby enhancing regional food securit

Increasing Profitability of Small Scale Orchard Producers through Optimizing Replacement Rate: The Case Study of Ghana

This study sets out to empirically estimate the optimum annual replacement rate and age of cocoa trees in order to maximize the net present value of four common cocoa production systems. The study examines the costs and returns of four common cocoa production systems in Ghana associated with changes in cocoa prices, fertilizer prices, inflation rates, and labor prices. While this study focuses on cocoa, the methodology is applicable to any perennial crop. This study uses empirical yield curves and cost of production data from Ghana to determine when and what percentage of a cocoa orchard should be replaced annually to maximize net present value of revenues over time. Successive versions of the model are solved to determine how input and output price changes affect optimal replacement rates and replacement ages. Producers in both high- and low-income countries are reluctant to cull still productive assets, such as trees that are diminishing in yield over time. The Excel based model developed in this study could provide extension personnel with a simple yet powerful tool to illustrate to producers the benefits of systematic tree replacement. This study provides strong evidence of the benefits of replacing trees at the optimal time and rate.Cocoa, Replacement Rate, Net Present Value (NPV), Production Economics, Q01, Q15, Q32,

In-Store Evaluation of Consumer Willingness to Pay for “Farm-Raised†Pre-Cooked Roast Beef: A Case Study

A choice-based conjoint experiment was used to examine consumer willingness to pay for a farm-raised pre-cooked roast beef product. Consumers were contacted in a grocery store and provided a sample of the pre-cooked product. Findings indicate there is a small, but statistically significant willingness-to-pay premium for the farm-raised product, suggesting that some product differentiation may result in higher prices for these products. The study outlines an approach to marketing research.beef, conjoint, convenience foods, experiments, in-store tests, surveys, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing,

Weather, disease, and wheat breeding effects on Kansas wheat varietal yields, 1985 to 2011.

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yields in Kansas have increased due to wheat breeding and improved agronomic practices, but are subject to climate and disease challenges. The objective of this research is to quantify the impact of weather, disease, and genetic improvement on wheat yields of varieties grown in 11 locations in Kansas from 1985 to 2011. Wheat variety yield data from Kansas performance tests were matched with comprehensive location-specific disease and weather data, including seasonal precipitation, monthly air temperature, air temperature and solar radiation around anthesis, and vapor pressure deficit (VPD). The results show that wheat breeding programs increased yield by 34 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. From 1985 through 2011, wheat breeding increased average wheat yields by 917 kg ha⁻¹, or 27% of total yield. Weather was found to have a large impact on wheat yields. Simulations demonstrated that a 1°C increase in projected mean temperature was associated with a decrease in wheat yields of 715 kg ha⁻¹, or 21%. Weather, diseases, and genetics all had significant impacts on wheat yields in 11 locations in Kansas during 1985 to 2011

Effects of biotic and abiotic stress on household cocoa yields in Ghana

Few empirical studies have estimated the direct effects of biotic (disease and pest) and abiotic (e.g. drought and flood) stresses on cocoa-producing households. As such, this study extends the existing literature by using household-level data from Ghana over three cocoa growing seasons (2002, 2004 and 2006) in a regression framework to estimate the responsiveness of cocoa yields to biotic and abiotic stress at the household level. The results show that, for farms exposed per year, overall stress from pests makes up the highest percentage, followed by disease stresses and abiotic stresses. In addition, the results from the regression model show that cocoa yields decline by 0.046%, 0.013% and 0.003% respectively for every one percent increase in the proportion of the farm affected by disease, pests and abiotic stress that persist for a year. The findings of this study suggest that the government of Ghana should consider expanding the scope of the National Cocoa Diseases and Pest Control Programme to include other pests that are not included in the programme. We also recommend an insurance product for cocoa to help farmers manage the risks of abiotic stresses such as droughts and floods that destroy investments and potential income

Indian Acceptance of Cisgenic Rice: Are all GMOs the same?

India has more than 215 million food insecure people, many of whom are farmers. Genetically modified (GM) crops have the potential to alleviate this problem by increasing food supplies and strengthening farmer livelihoods. For this to occur, two factors are critical: (1) a change in the regulatory status of GM crops, and (2) consumer acceptance of GM foods. There are generally two classifications of GM crops based on how they are bred: cisgenically-bred, derived from sexually compatible organisms, and transgenically-bred, derived from sexually incompatible organisms. Consumers may view cisgenic foods as more natural than those produced via transgenesis, thus influencing consumer acceptance. This premise was the catalyst for our study—would Indian consumers accept cisgenically-bred rice and if so, how would they value cisgenics compared to conventionally-bred rice, GM-labeled rice, and “no fungicide” rice? In this willingness-to-pay study, respondents did not view cisgenic and GM rice differently. However, participants were willing-to-pay a premium for any aforementioned rice with a “no fungicide” attribute, which cisgenics and GM could provide. Lastly, 76% and 73% of respondents stated a willingness-to-consume GM and cisgenic foods, respectively

Economic Incentives Necessary for Adoption of Environmentally Friendly Cocoa Production in Ghana

Concerns about cocoa production in Africa at the expense of forests, biodiversity and its effects on sustainability necessitate the investigation of price premiums to incentivize cocoa producers to abandon the practices of plantation style cocoa for more sustainable practices shaded cocoa. Thus, this study first employs a multiple regression on a sample of 2,076 Ghanaian cocoa households over five cocoa growing seasons (2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2010), to estimate the yield difference among three varieties of cocoa. These yield differentials in addition to published yield curves are then used to simulate variety specific yield curves under shaded and unshaded cocoa production. These yield curves in addition to cost curves, are then used to estimate the price premium that reflects the opportunity cost of cultivating shaded cocoa. Results indicates that the mean price premium of approximately 4.95% currently offered by third-party production certification schemes (e.g. UTZ Certified) for biodiversity friendly cocoa are well below this study’s price premium of 20.5%. Estimating the opportunity cost of shaded cocoa production is important to producers to determine whether growing cocoa under shade is sufficiently profitable. For manufacturers and consumers, these premiums indicate the cost needed to secure a supply of sustainably produced coco

Revisiting GMOs : are there differences in European consumers' acceptance and valuation for cisgenically vs transgenically bred rice?

Both cisgenesis and transgenesis are plant breeding techniques that can be used to introduce new genes into plant genomes. However, transgenesis uses gene(s) from a non-plant organism or from a donor plant that is sexually incompatible with the recipient plant while cisgenesis involves the introduction of gene(s) from a crossable-sexually compatible-plant. Traditional breeding techniques could possibly achieve the same results as those from cisgenesis, but would require a much larger timeframe. Cisgenesis allows plant breeders to enhance an existing cultivar more quickly and with little to no genetic drag. The current regulation in the European Union (EU) on genetically modified organisms (GMOs) treats cisgenic plants the same as transgenic plants and both are mandatorily labeled as GMOs. This study estimates European consumers' willingness-to-pay (WTP) for rice labeled as GM, cisgenic, with environmental benefits (which cisgenesis could provide), or any combination of these three attributes. Data were collected from 3,002 participants through an online survey administered in Belgium, France, the Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom in 2013. Censored regression models were used to model consumers' WTP in each country. Model estimates highlight significant differences in WTP across countries. In all five countries, consumers are willing-to-pay a premium to avoid purchasing rice labeled as GM. In all countries except Spain, consumers have a significantly higher WTP to avoid consuming rice labeled as GM compared to rice labeled as cisgenic, suggesting that inserting genes from the plant's own gene pool is more acceptable to consumers. Additionally, French consumers are willing-to-pay a premium for rice labeled as having environmental benefits compared to conventional rice. These findings suggest that not all GMOs are the same in consumers' eyes and thus, from a consumer preference perspective, the differences between transgenic and cisgenic products are recommended to be reflected in GMO labeling and trade policies