Home high above and home deep down below -- lending in Hungary

In Hungary in the pre-crisis period, the bank sector-initiated private credit boom significantly contributed to the accumulation of economic imbalances. Nevertheless, before the 2008 crisis no special regulatory measure was taken to mitigate the foreign exchange lending to unhedged borrowers, which was a main moving force of the credit boom. Depreciation of forint-denominated subsidized housing loans and the increased risk premium significantly deteriorated customers'positions and resulted in rocketing nonperforming loans. A recession, deteriorating portfolios, and lack of efficient workout. The introduction of strict regulation froze banking activity and the danger of recovery without lending emerged. This paper compares the pre- and post-crisis lending activity and analyzes the lack of regulation in the pre-crisis period and the inefficient regulation in the post-crisis period.Debt Markets,Banks&Banking Reform,Currencies and Exchange Rates,Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress,Emerging Markets

Dependent Double Branching Annihilating Random Walk

Double (or parity conserving) branching annihilating random walk, introduced by Sudbury in '90, is a one-dimensional non-attractive particle system in which positive and negative particles perform nearest neighbor hopping, produce two offsprings to neighboring lattice points and annihilate when they meet. Given an odd number of initial particles, positive recurrence as seen from the leftmost particle position was first proved by Belitsky, Ferrari, Menshikov and Popov in '01 and, subsequently in a much more general setup, in the article by Sturm and Swart (Tightness of voter model interfaces) in '08. These results assume that jump rates of the various moves do not depend on the configuration of the particles not involved in these moves. The present article deals with the case when the jump rates are affected by the locations of several particles in the system. Motivation for such models comes from non-attractive interacting particle systems with particle conservation. Under suitable assumptions we establish the existence of the process, and prove that the one-particle state is positive recurrent. We achieve this by arguments similar to those appeared in the previous article by Sturm and Swart. We also extend our results to some cases of long range jumps, when branching can also occur to non-neighboring sites. We outline and discuss several particular examples of models where our results apply.Comment: 35 pages, 7 figure