Socio-economic utility and chemical potential

In statistical physics, the conservation of particle number results in the equalization of the chemical potential throughout a system at equilibrium. In contrast, the homogeneity of utility in socio-economic models is usually thought to rely on the competition between individuals, leading to Nash equilibrium. We show that both views can be reconciled by introducing a notion of chemical potential in a wide class of socio-economic models, and by relating it in a direct way to the equilibrium value of the utility. This approach also allows the dependence of utility across the system to be determined when agents take decisions in a probabilistic way. Numerical simulations of a urban economic model also suggest that our result is valid beyond the initially considered class of solvable models.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, final versio

Genital warts and infection with human immunodeficiency virus in high-risk women in Burkina Faso: a longitudinal study

BACKGROUND: Human papillomaviruses are the most common sexually transmitted infections, and genital warts, caused by HPV-6 and 11, entail considerable morbidity and cost. The natural history of genital warts in relation to HIV-1 infection has not been described in African women. We examined risk factors for genital warts in a cohort of high-risk women in Burkina Faso, in order to further describe their epidemiology. METHODS: A prospective study of 765 high-risk women who were followed at 4-monthly intervals for 27 months in Burkina Faso. Logistic and Cox regression were used to identify factors associated with prevalent, incident and persistent genital warts, including HIV-1 serostatus, CD4+ count, and concurrent sexually transmitted infections. In a subset of 306 women, cervical HPV DNA was tested at enrollment. RESULTS: Genital wart prevalence at baseline was 1.6% (8/492) among HIV-uninfected and 7.0% (19/273) among HIV-1 seropositive women. Forty women (5.2%) experienced at least one incident GW episode. Incidence was 1.1 per 100 person-years among HIV-uninfected women, 7.4 per 100 person-years among HIV-1 seropositive women with a nadir CD4+ count >200 cells/μL and 14.6 per 100 person-years among HIV-1 seropositive women with a nadir CD4+ count ≤ 200 cells/μL. Incident genital warts were also associated with concurrent bacterial vaginosis, and genital ulceration. Antiretroviral therapy was not protective against incident or persistent genital warts. Detection of HPV-6 DNA and abnormal cervical cytology were strongly associated with incident genital warts. CONCLUSIONS: Genital warts occur much more frequently among HIV-1 infected women in Africa, particularly among those with low CD4+ counts. Antiretroviral therapy did not reduce the incidence or persistence of genital warts in this population

Human papillomavirus genotype distribution and cervical squamous intraepithelial lesions among high-risk women with and without HIV-1 infection in Burkina Faso

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and cervical squamous intraepithelial lesions (SILs) were studied in 379 high-risk women. Human papillomavirus DNA was detected in 238 of 360 (66.1%) of the beta-globin-positive cervical samples, and 467 HPV isolates belonging to 35 types were identified. Multiple (2–7 types) HPV infections were observed in 52.9% of HPV-infected women. The most prevalent HPV types were HPV-52 (14.7%), HPV-35 (9.4%), HPV-58 (9.4%), HPV-51 (8.6%), HPV-16 (7.8%), HPV-31 (7.5%), HPV-53 (6.7%), and HPV-18 (6.4%). Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) seroprevalence was 36.0%. Human papillomavirus prevalence was significantly higher in HIV-1-infected women (87 vs 54%, prevalence ratio (PR)=1.61, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.4–1.8). High-risk HPV types (71 vs 40%, PR=1.79, 95% CI: 1.5–2.2), in particular HPV-16+18 (22 vs 9%, PR=2.35, 95% CI: 1.4–4.0), and multiple HPV infections (56 vs 23%, PR=2.45, 95% CI: 1.8–3.3) were more prevalent in HIV-1-infected women. High-grade SIL (HSIL) was identified in 3.8% of the women. Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection was strongly associated with presence of HSIL (adjusted odds ratio=17.0; 95% CI 2.2–134.1, P=0.007) after controlling for high-risk HPV infection and other risk factors for HSIL. Nine of 14 (63%) HSIL cases were associated with HPV-16 or HPV-18 infection, and might have been prevented by an effective HPV-16/18 vaccine

Getting research into policy - Herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2) treatment and HIV infection: international guidelines formulation and the case of Ghana

BACKGROUND: Observational epidemiological and biological data indicate clear synergies between Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) and HIV, whereby HSV-2 enhances the potential for HIV acquisition or transmission. In 2001, the World Health Organization (WHO) launched a call for research into the possibilities of disrupting this cofactor effect through the use of antiherpetic therapy. A WHO Expert Meeting was convened in 2008 to review the research results. The results of the trials were mostly inconclusive or showed no impact. However, the WHO syndromic management treatment guidelines were modified to include acyclovir as first line therapy to treat genital ulcer disease on the basis of the high prevalence of HSV-2 in most settings, impact and cost-benefit of treatment on ulcer healing and quality of life among patients. METHODS: This paper examines the process through which the evidence related to HIV-HSV-2 interactions influenced policy at the international level and then the mechanism of international to national policy transfer, with Ghana as a case study. To better understand the context within which national policy change occurs, special attention was paid to the relationships between researchers and policy-makers as integral to the process of getting evidence into policy. Data from this study were then collected through interviews conducted with researchers, program managers and policy-makers working in sexual health/STI at the 2008 WHO Expert Meeting in Montreux, Switzerland, and in Accra, Ghana. RESULTS: The major findings of this study indicate that investigations into HSV-2 as a cofactor of HIV generated the political will necessary to reform HSV-2 treatment policy. Playing a pivotal role at both the international level and within the Ghanaian policy context were 'policy networks' formed either formally (WHO) or informally (Ghana) around an issue area. These networks of professionals serve as the primary conduit of information between researchers and policy-makers. Donor influence was cited as the single strongest impetus and impediment to policy change nationally. CONCLUSIONS: Policy networks may serve as the primary driving force of change in both international context and in the case of Ghana. Communication among researchers and policy-makers is critical for uptake of evidence and opportunities may exist to formalize policy networks and engage donors in a productive and ethical way

Investing in the future: lessons learnt from communicating the results of HSV/ HIV intervention trials in South Africa

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Communicating the results of randomised controlled trials may present challenges for researchers who have to work with communities and policy-makers to anticipate positive outcomes, while being aware that results may show no effect or harm.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We present a case study from the perspective of researchers in South Africa about the lessons learnt from communicating the results of four trials evaluating treatment for herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) as a new strategy for HIV prevention.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We show that contextual factors such as misunderstandings and mistrust played an important role in defining the communications response. Use of different approaches in combination was found to be most effective in building understanding, credibility and trust in the research process. During the communication process, researchers acted beyond their traditional role of neutral observers and became agents of social change. This change in role is in keeping with a global trend towards increased communication of research results and presents both opportunities and challenges for the conduct of future research.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Despite disappointing trial results which showed no benefit of HSV-2 treatment for HIV prevention, important lessons were learnt about the value of the communication process in building trust between researchers, community members and policy-makers, and creating an enabling environment for future research partnerships.</p

The incidence of HIV among women recruited during late pregnancy and followed up for six years after childbirth in Zimbabwe

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>HIV incidence is a useful tool for improving the targeting of populations for interventions and assessing the effectiveness of prevention strategies. A study in Harare, Zimbabwe reported cumulative incidences of 3.4% (3.0-3.8) and 6.5% (5.7-7.4) among post-partum women followed for 12 and 24 months respectively between 1997 and 2001. According to a Government report on HIV the prevalence of HIV fell from about 30% in 1999 to 14% in 2008. The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence of HIV-1 among women enrolled during late pregnancy and followed for six years after childbirth and to identify risk factors associated with acquisition of HIV.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>HIV-uninfected pregnant women around 36 weeks gestation were enrolled from primary health care clinics in peri-urban settlements around Harare and followed-up for up to six years after childbirth. At every visit a questionnaire was interview-administered to obtain socio-demographic data and sexual history since the previous visit. A genital examination was performed followed by the collection of biological samples.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 552 HIV-uninfected women 444 (80.4%) were seen at least twice during the six years follow-up and 39 acquired HIV, resulting in an incidence (95% CI) of 2.3/100 woman-years-at-risk (wyar) (1.1-4.1). The incidence over the first nine months post-partum was 5.7/100 wyar (3.3-8.1). A greater proportion of teenagers (15.3%) contributed to a high incidence rate of 2.9/100 (0.6-8.7) wyar. In multivariate analysis lower education of participant, RR 2.1 (1.1-4.3) remained significantly associated with HIV acquisition. Other risk factors associated with acquisition of HIV-1 in univariate analysis were young age at sexual debut, RR 2.3, (1.0-5.6) and having children with different fathers, RR 2.7(1.3-5.8). Women that knew that their partners had other sexual partners were about four times more likely to acquire HIV, RR 3.8 (1.3-11.2).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The incidence of HIV was high during the first nine months after childbirth. Time of seroconversion, age and educational level of seroconverter are important factors that must be considered when designing HIV intervention strategies.</p

Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2, Genital Ulcers and HIV-1 Disease Progression in Postpartum Women

Co-infection with herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) has been associated with increased HIV-1 RNA levels and immune activation, two predictors of HIV-1 progression. The impact of HSV-2 on clinical outcomes among HIV-1 infected pregnant women is unclear.HIV-1 infected pregnant women in Nairobi were enrolled antenatally and HSV-2 serology was obtained. HIV-1 RNA and CD4 count were serially measured for 12-24 months postpartum. Survival analysis using endpoints of death, opportunistic infection (OI), and CD4<200 cells µL, and linear mixed models estimating rate of change of HIV-1 RNA and CD4, were used to determine associations between HSV-2 serostatus and HIV-1 progression.Among 296 women, 254 (86%) were HSV-2-seropositive. Only 30 (10%) women had prior or current genital ulcer disease (GUD); median baseline CD4 count was 422 cells µL. Adjusting for baseline CD4, women with GUD were significantly more likely to have incident OIs (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 2.79, 95% CI: 1.33-5.85), and there was a trend for association between HSV-2-seropositivity and incident OIs (aHR 3.83, 95% CI: 0.93-15.83). Rate of change in CD4 count and HIV-1 RNA did not differ by HSV-2 status or GUD, despite a trend toward higher baseline HIV-1 RNA in HSV-2-seropositive women (4.73 log10 copies/ml vs. 4.47 log10 copies/ml, P = 0.07).HSV-2 was highly prevalent and pregnant HIV-1 infected women with GUD were significantly more likely to have incident OIs than women without GUD, suggesting that clinically evident HSV-2 is a more important predictor of HIV-1 disease progression than asymptomatic HSV-2

Genital herpes evaluation by quantitative TaqMan PCR: correlating single detection and quantity of HSV-2 DNA in cervicovaginal lavage fluids with cross-sectional and longitudinal clinical data

Abstract Objective To evaluate the utility of a single quantitative PCR (qPCR) measurement of HSV (HSV-1&amp;2) DNA in cervicovaginal lavage (CVL) specimens collected from women with predominantly chronic HSV-2 infection in assessing genital HSV shedding and the clinical course of genital herpes (GH) within a cohort with semiannual schedule of follow up and collection of specimens. Methods Two previously described methods used for detection of HSV DNA in mucocutaneous swab samples were adapted for quantification of HSV DNA in CVLs. Single CVL specimens from 509 women were tested. Presence and quantity of CVL HSV DNA were explored in relation to observed cross-sectional and longitudinal clinical data. Results The PCR assay was sensitive and reproducible with a limit of quantification of ~50 copies per milliliter of CVL. Overall, 7% of the samples were positive for HSV-2 DNA with median log10 HSV-2 DNA copy number of 3.9 (IQR: 2.6-5.7). No HSV-1 was detected. Presence and quantity of HSV-2 DNA in CVL directly correlated with the clinical signs and symptoms of presence of active symptomatic disease with frequent recurrences. Conclusion Single qPCR measurement of HSV DNA in CVL fluids of women with chronic HSV-2 infection provided useful information for assessing GH in the setting of infrequent sampling of specimens. Observed positive correlation of the presence and quantity of HSV-2 DNA with the presence of active and more severe course of HSV-2 infection may have clinical significance in the evaluation and management of HSV-2 infected patients