Learning and Communication in Sender-Reciever Games: An Economic Investigation

This paper compares the performance of stimulus response (SR) and belief-based learning (BBL) using data from game theory experiments. The environment, extensive form games played in a population setting, is novel in the empirical literature on learning in games. Both the SR and BBL models fit the data reasonably well in common interest games with history while the test results accept SR and reject BBL in games with no history and in all but one of the divergent interest games. Estimation is challenging since the likelihood function is not globally concave and the results may be subject to convergence bias.econometrics;game theory and experiments

Learning and Communication in Sender-Reciever Games:An Economic Investigation

This paper compares the performance of stimulus response (SR) and belief-based learning (BBL) using data from game theory experiments. The environment, extensive form games played in a population setting, is novel in the empirical literature on learning in games. Both the SR and BBL models fit the data reasonably well in common interest games with history while the test results accept SR and reject BBL in games with no history and in all but one of the divergent interest games. Estimation is challenging since the likelihood function is not globally concave and the results may be subject to convergence bias.

Measuring the cyclical behavior of home production: a macroeconomic analysis

Much economic activity takes place within the home. Unfortunately, it is difficult to assess the cyclical properties of home production because the available data are too sporadic. Under the assumption that each observation of historical U.S. data on consumption, investment, and hours worked is consistent with optimal behavior on the part of a representative agent, we construct quarterly data on three variables that would otherwise be unobservable at a quarterly frequency: hours worked in the home sector, hours spent in leisure, and the consumption of goods produced in the home sector. Three results emerge: leisure is highly countercyclical while nonmarket hours are acyclical; there has been a large decrease in hours spent in home production since the 1970s; fluctuations in market output are a good measure of fluctuations in individual utility as long as home consumption and market consumption are either extreme complements or extreme substitutes in the production of utility. The sensitivity of results to the parametric assumptions is examined.Gross domestic product ; Production (Economic theory)

Atomic X-ray Spectroscopy of Accreting Black Holes

Current astrophysical research suggests that the most persistently luminous objects in the Universe are powered by the flow of matter through accretion disks onto black holes. Accretion disk systems are observed to emit copious radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum, each energy band providing access to rather distinct regimes of physical conditions and geometric scale. X-ray emission probes the innermost regions of the accretion disk, where relativistic effects prevail. While this has been known for decades, it also has been acknowledged that inferring physical conditions in the relativistic regime from the behavior of the X-ray continuum is problematic and not satisfactorily constraining. With the discovery in the 1990s of iron X-ray lines bearing signatures of relativistic distortion came the hope that such emission would more firmly constrain models of disk accretion near black holes, as well as provide observational criteria by which to test general relativity in the strong field limit. Here we provide an introduction to this phenomenon. While the presentation is intended to be primarily tutorial in nature, we aim also to acquaint the reader with trends in current research. To achieve these ends, we present the basic applications of general relativity that pertain to X-ray spectroscopic observations of black hole accretion disk systems, focusing on the Schwarzschild and Kerr solutions to the Einstein field equations. To this we add treatments of the fundamental concepts associated with the theoretical and modeling aspects of accretion disks, as well as relevant topics from observational and theoretical X-ray spectroscopy.Comment: 63 pages, 21 figures, Einstein Centennial Review Article, Canadian Journal of Physics, in pres

Search for jet extinction in the inclusive jet-pT spectrum from proton-proton collisions at s=8 TeV

Published by the American Physical Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. Further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the published articles title, journal citation, and DOI.The first search at the LHC for the extinction of QCD jet production is presented, using data collected with the CMS detector corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 10.7  fb−1 of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV. The extinction model studied in this analysis is motivated by the search for signatures of strong gravity at the TeV scale (terascale gravity) and assumes the existence of string couplings in the strong-coupling limit. In this limit, the string model predicts the suppression of all high-transverse-momentum standard model processes, including jet production, beyond a certain energy scale. To test this prediction, the measured transverse-momentum spectrum is compared to the theoretical prediction of the standard model. No significant deficit of events is found at high transverse momentum. A 95% confidence level lower limit of 3.3 TeV is set on the extinction mass scale

Searches for electroweak neutralino and chargino production in channels with Higgs, Z, and W bosons in pp collisions at 8 TeV

Searches for supersymmetry (SUSY) are presented based on the electroweak pair production of neutralinos and charginos, leading to decay channels with Higgs, Z, and W bosons and undetected lightest SUSY particles (LSPs). The data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of about 19.5 fb(-1) of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV collected in 2012 with the CMS detector at the LHC. The main emphasis is neutralino pair production in which each neutralino decays either to a Higgs boson (h) and an LSP or to a Z boson and an LSP, leading to hh, hZ, and ZZ states with missing transverse energy (E-T(miss)). A second aspect is chargino-neutralino pair production, leading to hW states with E-T(miss). The decays of a Higgs boson to a bottom-quark pair, to a photon pair, and to final states with leptons are considered in conjunction with hadronic and leptonic decay modes of the Z and W bosons. No evidence is found for supersymmetric particles, and 95% confidence level upper limits are evaluated for the respective pair production cross sections and for neutralino and chargino mass values

The Effect of Nuisance Parameters on the Power of LM Tests in Logit and Probit Models

In econometrics, most null hypotheses are composite, dividing the parameters into parameters of interest and nuisance parameters. The domain of the nuisance parameters can influence the size-corrected critical value and hence the power of a test. We show that the domain of the nuisance parameters determines which version of the LM test to use in logit and probit models. In these models there are two commonly used ways to construct the LM test: it can be based on the Hessian matrix or the outer product (OP) matrix of the score vectors. For the OP based LM test, the domain of the nuisance parameters strongly influences the size-corrected critical value whereas the same is not true for the Hessian based LM test. A theoretical explanation is developed using large nuisance parameter asymptotics. For empirically relevant domains, the experimental evidence shows that the Hessian based LM test has better finite sample power than the OP based LM test.

Power of Tests in Binary Response Models

Most hypotheses in binary response models are composite. The null hypothesis is usually that one or more slope coefficients are zero. Typically, the sequence of alternatives of interest is one in which the slope coefficients are increasing in absolute value. In this paper, we prove that the power goes to zero for this sequence of alternatives of interest in cases which often occur in practice. The practical implication is that for the sequence of alternatives of interest the power is nonmonotonic. This is true for any non-randomized test with size less than one and for a wide class of binary response models which includes the logit and probit models.

Real and Spurious Long Memory Properties of Stock Market Data

We test for the presence of long memory in daily stock returns and their squares using a robust semiparametric procedure. Spurious results can be produced by nonstationarity and aggregation. We address these problems by analyzing subperiods of returns and using individual stocks. The test results show no evidence of long memory in the returns. By contrast, there is strong evidence in the squared returns.

Finite Sample Distributions of t and F Statistics in an AR(1) Model with Anexogenous Variable

The distributions of the test statistics are investigated in the context of an AR(1) model where the root is unity or near unity and where the exogenous process is a stable process, a random walk or a time trend. The finite sample distributions are estimated by Monte Carlo methods assuming normal disturbances. The sensitivity of the distributions to both the values of the parameters of the AR(1) model and the process generating the exogenous time series is examined. The Monte Carlo results motivate several theorems which describe the exact sampling behavior of the test statistics. The analytical and empirical results present a mixed picture with respect to the accuracy of the relevant asymptotic approximations.