oekonometrische analyse des oesterreichischen aussenhandels: ein drei-regionen welthandelsmodell

zusammenfassung (einleitung): die modellierung des welthandels, die empirische analyse der interaktion nationaler oekonomien ist das leitthema der vorliegenden arbeit. basierend auf dem "marktanteilskonzept", das speziell im rahmen des internationalen projekts link erarbeitet wurde, werden alternative theoretische ansaetze diskutiert und schliesslich ein hochaggregiertes welthandelsmodell dargestellt. besonderes augenmerk wurde weniger auf die exakte darstellung von welthandelsaktivitaeten gelegt, sondern vielmehr auf die frage, inwieweit ein welthandelsmodell mit hohem aggregationsniveau zur analyse des aussenhandels eines einzelnen (kleinen) staates beitragen kann. im speziellen wurde der erklaerungsrahmen des modells in hinblick auf denaussenhandel oesterreichs konzipiert. die verwendung des marktanteilskonzepts erlaubt es, nicht nur exporte und importe oesterreichs, sondern auch marktanteile an den importen einzelner regionen zu behandeln. einen wichtigen beitrag zur beurteilung des modells liefern simulationsergebnisse aus ex post und ex ante simulationen. es zeigt sich, dass das modell im verhaeltnis zu seinem abstraktionsniveau zufriedenstellende prognosewerte generiert. schliesslich sei noch auf das technische problem der datenaufbereitung verwiesen, dem ein teil des anhanges gewidmet ist.

geldpolitik in einem system flexibler wechselkurse

summary: the theoretical origins of the present paper are to be found in the seminal studies of j.m. fleming and r.a. mundell on the effects of monetary policy under a system of flexible exchange rates. their "traditional" approach, according to which a monetary expansion leads to a rise of domestic expenditures and an improvement in the current account balance, is described in chapter i. in chapter ii, the traditional approach is extended by introducing money-multiplier processes, relaxing the"small country" assumption, and including price effects, the real balance effect, the influence of output on the capital account balance , the forward exchange market and speculation. it is shown that an important policy implication of the traditional theory - that monetary policy is effective with regard to income and employment - is robust with respect to the above modifications. however, the chapter indicates that if a logically coherent specification of the terms-of-trade effect is incorporated into the traditional model, the classic propositions of the model hold only in the case of perfect capital mobility. chapter iii deals with a general criticism of the traditional approach and chapter iv proceeds to develop models based on the monetar approach of the balance of payments theory. these models are used to analyse the short and long run effects of monetary policy. the traditional short run effects of a monetary expansion may be obtained under the assumption of perfect substitutability between foreign and domestic assets. in the long run, monetary policy is neutral, unless international interest payments and capital gains are taken into account. if the perfect substitutability assumption is dropped, the long run non-neutrality of monetary policy emerges.

Estimating marginal costs for the Austrian railway system

This article presents an econometric analysis of the maintenance costs for the Austrian railway system. The data contain observations of track maintenance costs from 1998 to 2000. Our analysis identifies the cost driving factors in order to determine estimates of marginal costs, as required by the infrastructure provision principles of the European Union. The analysis identifies the variables "track length" and "transported gross-tons" as the principal cost determinants. Furthermore, we observe that total costs as well as marginal costs increase with (i) a high proportion of the track occupied by train stations, (ii) the number of switches within a track, (iii) narrow bends, and (iv) considerable slopes. Moreover average as well as marginal costs for secondary lines are significantly higher than for main lines. (author's abstract)Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Serie