Kantian fractionalization predicts the conflict propensity of the international system

The study of complex social and political phenomena with the perspective and methods of network science has proven fruitful in a variety of areas, including applications in political science and more narrowly the field of international relations. We propose a new line of research in the study of international conflict by showing that the multiplex fractionalization of the international system (which we label Kantian fractionalization) is a powerful predictor of the propensity for violent interstate conflict, a key indicator of the system's stability. In so doing, we also demonstrate the first use of multislice modularity for community detection in a multiplex network application. Even after controlling for established system-level conflict indicators, we find that Kantian fractionalization contributes more to model fit for violent interstate conflict than previously established measures. Moreover, evaluating the influence of each of the constituent networks shows that joint democracy plays little, if any, role in predicting system stability, thus challenging a major empirical finding of the international relations literature. Lastly, a series of Granger causal tests shows that the temporal variability of Kantian fractionalization is consistent with a causal relationship with the prevalence of conflict in the international system. This causal relationship has real-world policy implications as changes in Kantian fractionalization could serve as an early warning sign of international instability.Comment: 17 pages + 17 pages designed as supplementary online materia

Communities in Networks

We survey some of the concepts, methods, and applications of community detection, which has become an increasingly important area of network science. To help ease newcomers into the field, we provide a guide to available methodology and open problems, and discuss why scientists from diverse backgrounds are interested in these problems. As a running theme, we emphasize the connections of community detection to problems in statistical physics and computational optimization.Comment: survey/review article on community structure in networks; published version is available at http://people.maths.ox.ac.uk/~porterm/papers/comnotices.pd

Super-resolution community detection for layer-aggregated multilayer networks

Applied network science often involves preprocessing network data before applying a network-analysis method, and there is typically a theoretical disconnect between these steps. For example, it is common to aggregate time-varying network data into windows prior to analysis, and the tradeoffs of this preprocessing are not well understood. Focusing on the problem of detecting small communities in multilayer networks, we study the effects of layer aggregation by developing random-matrix theory for modularity matrices associated with layer-aggregated networks with $N$ nodes and $L$ layers, which are drawn from an ensemble of Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi networks. We study phase transitions in which eigenvectors localize onto communities (allowing their detection) and which occur for a given community provided its size surpasses a detectability limit $K^*$. When layers are aggregated via a summation, we obtain $K^*\varpropto \mathcal{O}(\sqrt{NL}/T)$, where $T$ is the number of layers across which the community persists. Interestingly, if $T$ is allowed to vary with $L$ then summation-based layer aggregation enhances small-community detection even if the community persists across a vanishing fraction of layers, provided that $T/L$ decays more slowly than $\mathcal{O}(L^{-1/2})$. Moreover, we find that thresholding the summation can in some cases cause $K^*$ to decay exponentially, decreasing by orders of magnitude in a phenomenon we call super-resolution community detection. That is, layer aggregation with thresholding is a nonlinear data filter enabling detection of communities that are otherwise too small to detect. Importantly, different thresholds generally enhance the detectability of communities having different properties, illustrating that community detection can be obscured if one analyzes network data using a single threshold.Comment: 11 pages, 8 figure

The Bowl Championship Series: A Mathematical Review

We discuss individual components of the college football Bowl Championship Series, compare with a simple algorithm defined by random walks on a biased graph, attempt to predict whether the proposed changes will truly lead to increased BCS bowl access for non-BCS schools, and conclude by arguing that the true problem with the BCS Standings lies not in the computer algorithms, but rather in misguided addition.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figures, submitted to Notices of the AM

Infectivity Enhances Prediction of Viral Cascades in Twitter

Models of contagion dynamics, originally developed for infectious diseases, have proven relevant to the study of information, news, and political opinions in online social systems. Modelling diffusion processes and predicting viral information cascades are important problems in network science. Yet, many studies of information cascades neglect the variation in infectivity across different pieces of information. Here, we employ early-time observations of online cascades to estimate the infectivity of distinct pieces of information. Using simulations and data from real-world Twitter retweets, we demonstrate that these estimated infectivities can be used to improve predictions about the virality of an information cascade. Developing our simulations to mimic the real-world data, we consider the effect of the limited effective time for transmission of a cascade and demonstrate that a simple model for slow but non-negligible decay of the infectivity captures the essential properties of retweet distributions. These results demonstrate the interplay between the intrinsic infectivity of a tweet and the complex network environment within which it diffuses, strongly influencing the likelihood of becoming a viral cascade.Comment: 16 pages, 10 figure