How Public Spending Can Help You Grow: An Empirical Analysis for Developing Countries

Although many studies indicate that both the level and composition of public spending are significant for economic growth, the results in the empirical literature are still mixed. This note is based on a paper of the same title (Bayraktar and Moreno-Dodson 2010) that compares a set of fast-growing developing countries to a mix of developing countries with different growth patterns. Considering the full government budget constraint, the empirical analysis shows that public spending, especially its “core” components, contributes to economic growth only in countries that are capable of using funds for productive purposes. In addition, those countries must have an adequate economic policy environment with macroeconomic stability, openness, and private sector investments that are conducive to growth.public spending, growth, developing countries, fiscal budget, government spending, economic policy, macroeconomic stability, openness, private sector

How can public spending help you grow? an empirical analysis for developing countries

Although many studies indicate that both the level and composition of public spending are significant for economic growth, the results in the empirical literature are still mixed. This paper studies the importance of country sample selection and expenditure classification in explaining these conflicting results. It investigates a set of fast-growing countries versus a mix of countries with different growth patterns. The regression specifications include different components of public expenditure and total fiscal revenues, always considering the overall government budget constraint. Total public spending is first disaggregated using a definition that classifies public spending as productive versus unproductive components, an a priori criterion that is based on the expected impact of public spending items on the private sector production function. After empirically confirming the validity of this definition in the panel analysis, the authors suggest and test an alternative definition of"core"public spending that may be more appropriate for developing countries. The empirical analysis shows that the link between growth and public spending, especially the productive and"core"components, is strong only for the fast-growing group. In addition, macroeconomic stability, openness, and private sector investment are significant in the fast-growing group, which points to the existence of an economic policy environment more conducive to growth in the first group of countries. The authors conclude that public spending can be a significant determinant of growth for countries that are capable of using funds for productive purposes.Public Sector Expenditure Policy,Subnational Economic Development,Public Sector Economics,Debt Markets,Achieving Shared Growth

Public Finance for Poverty Reduction: An Overview

Governments in low-income countries have the difficult task of making wide-ranging decisions about public spending, taxation, and borrowing with the aim of helping their countries maintain long-term debt sustainability, achieve higher economic growth, and ultimately reduce poverty. Making such decisions is difficult because it involves considering multiple trade-offs. There are at least four reasons why designing and implementing fiscal policies that contribute to growth and poverty reduction are particularly challenging tasks in developing countries. First, private-market failures are widespread and often unpredictable. Second, government and institutional failures also limit the effectiveness of public interventions. Third, raising public revenues is difficult in a context of macroeconomic and growth instability, high debt ratios, weak tax administration, and large informal sectors. Finally, many developing countries lack the data necessary to conduct a thorough analysis of the effect of government policies on the poor segments of the population. Despite those challenges, however, the budget remains one of the most important instruments (together with laws and regulations) that governments have at their disposal to foster poverty reduction. Policy makers in both developing and developed countries, as well as nongovernmental or-ganizations and providers of aid, can benefit from a deeper understanding of how internally or externally financed public funds channeled through the budget can be used more successfully to benefit the poor in a realistic manner. This paper, which serves as an introduction to an edited volume on "Public Finance for Poverty Reduction" starts with a brief discussion of the rationale behind the role of the government in public finance. Then we discuss some of the limitations faced by governments in developing countries. We follow those discussions with an overview of the nature and structure of the material presented in the book and with our thoughts on germane topics yet to be addressed adequately.Public finance; poverty reduction; taxation; debt sustainability; public expenditure; incidence analysis

Assessing the impact of public spending on growth - an empirical analysis for seven fast growing countries

The goal of this paper is to understand better, at the empirical level, how public spending contributes to growth by focusing on both the level and composition of public spending, in connection to the dynamics of GDP per capita growth. It attempts to answer two specific questions: (a) What are the policy conditions under which public spending contributes positively to growth? and (b) What are the public spending components that have a stronger and longer-lasting impact on growth? The analysis is applied to a sample of seven fast-growing developing countries: Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Botswana, and Mauritius, which have been among the top performers in the world in terms of GDP per capita growth during the period (1960-2006). The rationale for this country sample selection is twofold. The first hypothesis is that, given their positive growth achievements over a relatively long time period, perhaps it is more straightforward to establish a link to public spending in those countries. Second, it is expected that the findings of the analysis will provide lessons regarding the level and composition of public spending that can be useful for other countries where growth has been less rapid. Assessing what role public spending has played in a dynamic growth context may indeed be enlightening for other cases as well. The paper is structured as follows. The first section is an introduction that provides relevant facts and information about the seven countries during the period of analysis, based on seven individual country case studies. Section II presents the theoretical background behind the empirical analysis. Section III focuses on the empirical methodology, function specification, and variables selected. Section IV is dedicated tothe results obtained with the cross-country analysis and some specific country results, as well as some comparisons with previous findings by other authors. Finally, Section V draws policy implications and concludes.Public Sector Expenditure Analysis&Management,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Debt Markets,Achieving Shared Growth,

Debt Sustainability for Low-Income Countries: A Review of Standard and Alternative Concepts

Governments in low-income countries have the difficult task of making wide-ranging decisions about public spending, taxation, and borrowing. Although we can analyze at length how both public spending and taxation can be designed and implemented to contribute to growth and poverty reduction, the biggest challenge that most developing countries face is in determining how much they can borrow without jeopardizing their long-term prospects. The objective of this paper is to introduce the key issues involved in debt sustainability analysis. We review the main approaches developed in the literature, starting from the traditional fiscal and external approaches and covering recent alternative frameworks, such as the debt overhang analysis and the human development approach (especially as it relates to the funding requirements for achieving the Millennium Development Goals).Debt sustainbility; fiscal sustainability; debt overhang; Millennium Development Goals; human development

Intertemporal adjustment and fiscal policy under a fixed exchange rate regime

The paper presents a dynamic model for small to medium open economies operating under a fixed exchange rate regime. The model provides a partial explanation of the channels through which fiscal and monetary policy affects the real exchange rate. An empirical investigation is conducted for the case of Argentina during the currency board period of 1991-2001. Empirical estimates show that fiscal policy may indeed be an efficient instrument for promoting macroeconomic stability insofar as it encourages convergence toward long-run equilibrium and alters the long-term balance between exports and consumption, both private and public. The simulation applied to Argentina shows that if the share of public spending in the economy is higher than the share of imports, an increase in the tax rate will stimulate capital stock slightly, at least in the short term, anddepreciate the real effective exchange rate. In the long run, the fiscal policy affects the value of the real exchange rate and consequently external competitiveness.Currencies and Exchange Rates,Economic Stabilization,Debt Markets,Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets

Expanding taxable capacity and reaching revenue potential : cross-country analysis

An effective tax system is fundamental for successful country development. The first step to understand public revenue systems is to establish some commonly agreed performance measurements and benchmarks. This paper employs a cross-country study to estimate tax capacity from a sample of 104 countries during 1994-2003. The estimation results are then used as benchmarks to compare taxable capacity and tax effort in different countries. Taxable capacity refersto the predicted tax-gross domestic product ratio that can be estimated with the regression, taking into account a country's specific economic, demographic, and institutional features. Tax effort is defined as an index of the ratio between the share of the actual tax collection in gross domestic product and the predicted taxable capacity. The authors classify countries into four distinct groups by their level of actual tax collection and attained tax effort. This classification is based on the benchmark of the global average of tax collection and a tax effort index of 1 (when tax collection is exactly the same as the estimated taxable capacity). The analysis provides guidance for countries with various levels of tax collection and tax effort.Taxation&Subsidies,Debt Markets,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Emerging Markets,Economic Theory&Research

Agriculture Public Spending and Growth:The Example of Indonesia

This note analyzes the trends and evolution of public spending in the agriculture sector in Indonesia, as well as its impact on the growth of agriculture during the period 1976–2006. Public spending on agriculture and irrigation had a positive impact on agriculture growth during that period, whereas public spending on fertilizer subsidies had the opposite effect. As Indonesia continues its efforts to revitalize the agriculture sector, public spending should be directed at improving the provision of public services rather than at subsidizing private inputs.Agriculture, Public Spending, Growth, Indonesia, irrigation, public services, private inputs, subsidies, farming, developing countries

The Impact of Tax and Expenditure Policies on Income Disttribution: Evidence from a Large Panel of Countries

This paper focuses is on the potential role that taxation and public expenditure policies play in general in affecting income distribution. We find that progressive personal income taxes and corporate in-come taxes reduce income inequality. However, the effect of corporate income taxes seems to be eroded away in open or globalized economies. We also find that general consumption taxes, excise taxes and customs duties have a negative impact on income distribution. On the expenditure side, we find that higher shares of GDP on social welfare, education, health and housing public expenditures have a positive impact on income distribution