The rationality and reliability of expectations reported by British households: micro evidence from the British household panel survey

This paper assesses the accuracy of individuals' expectations of their financial circumstances, as reported in the British Household Panel Survey, as predictors of outcomes and identifies what factors influence their reliability. As the data are qualitative bivariate ordered probit models, appropriately identified, are estimated to draw out the differential effect of information on expectations and realisations. Rationality is then tested and we seek to explain deviations of realisations from expectations at a micro-economic level, possibly with reference to macroeconomic shocks. A bivariate regime-switching ordered probit model, distinguishing between states of rationality and irrationality, is then estimated to identify whether individual characteristics affect the probability of an individual using some alternative model to rationality to form their expectations. --household behaviour,expectation formation

THE MARKETING OF BLACK MUSIC

Today\u27s black musicians are challenged not only to master their art, but also the business side of what has become a multi-million dollar consumer market. The author argues that little has changed since the days when black talent was paid with liquor and Cadillacs. Some new groups and young performers have begun to learn from the mistakes of their elders and are managing to hold on in a treacherous marketplace

The Mind and the Self: A Preliminary Analysis of Handbooks Written by Women and Men on How to Write Fiction from 1900-1940

This article conducts a comparative analysis of books published by women and men on how to write fiction from 1900-1940. The analysis reveals three unique distinctions between men and women writers. First, when women talk about the effect of writers’ minds on the work they produce, they do so in internal and self-reflexive ways, while men tend to encourage writers to reflect on how exterior factors affect authors’ minds and writing processes. Second, in order to become better writers, women encourage writers to focus on themselves as the primary source of their writing, while male writers envision the exterior world as the source of writing. Finally, male writers were the only ones to assert that some or all of creative writing could not be taught

Industrial Pottery of the United States

No abstract is available at this time

Efficient Aggregation of Panel Qualitative Survey Data

Qualitative business survey data are used widely to provide indicators of economic activity ahead of the publication of official data. Traditional indicators exploit only aggregate survey information, namely the proportions of respondents who report “up” and “down”. This paper examines disaggregate or firm-level survey responses. It considers how the responses of the individual firms should be quantified and combined if the aim is to produce an early indication of official output data. Having linked firms’ categorical responses to official data using ordered discrete choice models, the paper proposes a statistically efficient means of combining the disparate estimates of aggregate output growth which can be constructed from the responses of individual firms. An application to firm-level survey data from the Confederation of British Industry shows that the proposed indicator can provide early estimates of output growth more accurately than traditional indicators.Survey Data; Indicators; Quantification; Forecasting; Forecast Combination

The Role of Real Annuities and Indexed Bonds in an Individual Accounts Retirement Program

We explore four issues concerning annuitization options that retirees might use in the decumulation phase of an individual accounts' retirement saving system. First, we investigate the operation of both real and nominal annuity individual annuity markets in the United Kingdom. The widespread availability of real annuities in the U.K. dispels the argument that private insurance markets could not, or would not, provide real annuities to retirees. Second, we consider the current structure of two inflation-linked insurance products available in the United States, only one of which proves to be a real annuity. Third, we evaluate the potential of assets such as stocks, bonds, and bills, to provide retiree protection from inflation. Because equity real returns have been high over the last seven decades, a retiree who received income linked to equity returns would have fared very well on average. Nevertheless we cast doubt on the inflation insurance' aspect of equity, since this is mainly due to stocks' high average return, and not because stock returns move in tandem with inflation. Finally, we use a simulation model to assess potential retiree willingness to pay for real, nominal, and variable payout equity-linked annuities. For plausible degrees of risk aversion, inflation protection appears to have only modest value. People would be expected to value a variable payout equity-linked annuity more highly than a real annuity because the additional real returns associated with common stocks more than compensate for the volatility of prospective payouts. These finding are germane to concerns raised in connection with Social Security reform plans that include individual accounts.

RISK AND SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE: A TARGET-MOTAD ANALYSIS OF THE 92-YEAR "OLD ROTATION"

Target-MOTAD was used to assess the risks and returns of sustainable cotton crop rotations from Auburn University's 92-year "Old Rotation." Study results analyze rotations of continuous cotton, with and without winter legumes; two years of cotton-winter legumes-corn, with and without nitrogen fertilization; and three years of cotton-winter legumes-corn and rye-soybeans double-cropped. Ten years of observations on deviations from target income were used to identify optimal sustainable rotation(s). Study results suggest that diversification in rotations, as well as in crops, results in the least risk for a given level of target income.Risk and Uncertainty,