7,134 research outputs found
Generalized Direct Sampling for Hierarchical Bayesian Models
We develop a new method to sample from posterior distributions in
hierarchical models without using Markov chain Monte Carlo. This method, which
is a variant of importance sampling ideas, is generally applicable to
high-dimensional models involving large data sets. Samples are independent, so
they can be collected in parallel, and we do not need to be concerned with
issues like chain convergence and autocorrelation. Additionally, the method can
be used to compute marginal likelihoods
Scalable Inference of Customer Similarities from Interactions Data using Dirichlet Processes
Under the sociological theory of homophily, people who are similar to one
another are more likely to interact with one another. Marketers often have
access to data on interactions among customers from which, with homophily as a
guiding principle, inferences could be made about the underlying similarities.
However, larger networks face a quadratic explosion in the number of potential
interactions that need to be modeled. This scalability problem renders
probability models of social interactions computationally infeasible for all
but the smallest networks. In this paper we develop a probabilistic framework
for modeling customer interactions that is both grounded in the theory of
homophily, and is flexible enough to account for random variation in who
interacts with whom. In particular, we present a novel Bayesian nonparametric
approach, using Dirichlet processes, to moderate the scalability problems that
marketing researchers encounter when working with networked data. We find that
this framework is a powerful way to draw insights into latent similarities of
customers, and we discuss how marketers can apply these insights to
segmentation and targeting activities
Scalable Rejection Sampling for Bayesian Hierarchical Models
Bayesian hierarchical modeling is a popular approach to capturing unobserved
heterogeneity across individual units. However, standard estimation methods
such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be impracticable for modeling
outcomes from a large number of units. We develop a new method to sample from
posterior distributions of Bayesian models, without using MCMC. Samples are
independent, so they can be collected in parallel, and we do not need to be
concerned with issues like chain convergence and autocorrelation. The algorithm
is scalable under the weak assumption that individual units are conditionally
independent, making it applicable for large datasets. It can also be used to
compute marginal likelihoods
The impact of social and temporal job demands and resources on emotional exhaustion and turnover intention among flight attendants
Based on a survey among flight attendants from a DACH-country-based airline, this study examines the effects and relative importance of social and temporal determinants of emotional exhaustion and turnover intention. Results suggest that scheduling satisfaction is the most influential predictor of both emotional exhaustion and turnover intention, followed by time pressure and surface acting for emotional Exhaustion and surface acting and organizational support for turnover intention. From a practical standpoint, these results thus suggest that the most important predictors of emotional exhaustion and turnover intention can be shaped and influenced quite well by management
Men,Women, and the Ballot – Woman Suffrage in the United States
Woman suffrage led to the greatest enfranchisement in the history of the United States. BeforeWorldWar I, however, suffrage states remained almost exclusively confined to the American West. The reasons for this pioneering role of theWest are still unclear. Studying the timing of woman suffrage adoption at state level, we find that states in which women were scarce (the West) enfranchised their women much earlier than states in which the sex ratio was more balanced (the rest of the country). High sex ratios in the West, that is high ratios of grantors to grantees, reduced the political costs and risks to male electorates and legislators of extending the franchise. They are also likely to have enhanced female bargaining power and may have made woman suffrage more attractive in the eyes of western legislators that sought to attract more women to their states. Our finding of a reduced-form inverse relationship between the relative size of a group and its success in securing the ballot may be of use also for the study of other franchise extensions and for inquieries into the dynamics of political power sharing more generally.Woman suffrage, democratization, political economy, sex ratio
Against All Odds? National Sentiment and Wagering on European Football
This paper studies how national sentiment in the form of either a perception or a loyalty bias of bettors may affect pricing patterns on national wagering markets for international sport events. We show theoretically that both biases can be profitably exploited by bookmakers by way of price adjustment (odds shading). The former bias induces bookmakers to shade odds against the domestic team, the latter to adjust them in a way that depends on the demand elasticity of bettors for their national favorite. Analyzing empirically a unique data set of betting quotas from online bookmakers in twelve European countries for qualification games to the UEFA Euro 2008, we find evidence for systematic biases in the pricing of own national teams in the odds for win offered across countries. Variations in the sign and magnitude of these deviations can be explained by differences across countries in the respective strengths of the perception and loyalty biases among domestic bettors.Football, Home Bias, Investment, Patriotism
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