Indicators of core inflation: Case of Tunisia

The aim of this paper is to provide a credible measure of inflation. This credibility is of great importance for successful inflation targeting regime. This paper proposes a technique to solve a conceptual disparity between inflation phenomenon and its measurement. For this, we proposed an alternative measure called core inflation, defined as the inflation component that has no real impact on long-term production. Evaluation of core inflation was obtained using a VAR system under the assumption that variations in the extent of inflation are affected by two types of shock. The first type has no impact on real output in the long term, while the second can have this effect. This approach is a reconstruction of the approach of Quah and Vahey (1995) in the case of the Tunisian economy. The study concluded that the administered prices constitute a major obstacle to measure, interpret and forecast inflation. Central Bank of Tunisia has no control over a third of the CPI basket. This feature of the Tunisian economy is simply a sign of weakness of the economic system and the need for monetary authorities to continue its efforts to liberalize prices

Indicators of core inflation: Case of Tunisia

The aim of this paper is to provide a credible measure of inflation. This credibility is of great importance for successful inflation targeting regime. This paper proposes a technique to solve a conceptual disparity between inflation phenomenon and its measurement. For this, we proposed an alternative measure called core inflation, defined as the inflation component that has no real impact on long-term production. Evaluation of core inflation was obtained using a VAR system under the assumption that variations in the extent of inflation are affected by two types of shock. The first type has no impact on real output in the long term, while the second can have this effect. This approach is a reconstruction of the approach of Quah and Vahey (1995) in the case of the Tunisian economy. The study concluded that the administered prices constitute a major obstacle to measure, interpret and forecast inflation. Central Bank of Tunisia has no control over a third of the CPI basket. This feature of the Tunisian economy is simply a sign of weakness of the economic system and the need for monetary authorities to continue its efforts to liberalize prices

Determinants of Inflation in Tunisia Using Structural Modeling

The aim of this paper is to advance a structural modeling of the monetary politics in Tunisia and to provide elements that contribute to the understanding of the determinants of the inflation. This study is going to refer in relation to the theoretical foundations of the Phillips Curve, to construct the fundamental equation to use by structural macro econometrics models that considers the most direct determinants of the inflation. In section 2 of this paper, the structural models of inflation are exposed in the simplest variant used internationally by the central banks. In section 3, one is going to present the results of the evaluation of three econometrics models with data of the economy Tunisian based on the specification that the Curve of Phillips proposes. Finally, in section 4, the results are analyzed and the implications are valued in relation to the conduct of the monetary politics in Tunisia

Determinants of Inflation in Tunisia Using Structural Modeling

The aim of this paper is to advance a structural modeling of the monetary politics in Tunisia and to provide elements that contribute to the understanding of the determinants of the inflation. This study is going to refer in relation to the theoretical foundations of the Phillips Curve, to construct the fundamental equation to use by structural macro econometrics models that considers the most direct determinants of the inflation. In section 2 of this paper, the structural models of inflation are exposed in the simplest variant used internationally by the central banks. In section 3, one is going to present the results of the evaluation of three econometrics models with data of the economy Tunisian based on the specification that the Curve of Phillips proposes. Finally, in section 4, the results are analyzed and the implications are valued in relation to the conduct of the monetary politics in Tunisia

Effect of Financial Liberalization on the Probability of Occurrence of Banking Crises

This study examines the relationship between financial liberalization and the advent probability of banking crises because of institutional quality. We used a logit panel data for a sample of fifty developing countries during the period (1990-2014). The results show that there is a positive relationship between financial liberalization and banking crises and the strengthening of institutional quality overcomes the problem of banking crise

Effect of Financial Liberalization on the Probability of Occurrence of Banking Crises

This study examines the relationship between financial liberalization and the advent probability of banking crises because of institutional quality. We used a logit panel data for a sample of fifty developing countries during the period (1990-2014). The results show that there is a positive relationship between financial liberalization and banking crises and the strengthening of institutional quality overcomes the problem of banking crise

Evaluation du degré d’indépendance de la Banque Centrale de Tunisie

The search for the credibility of monetary policies during the recent decades this is materialized , among other things, changes in the laws that govern the activities of the Central Bank, supposed main guarantor of the proper conduct of monetary policy. These changes are aimed , essentially the establishment of an independent Central Bank power policy. This need stems from the fear that the opportunism of the rulers conducted before the election periods , to use discretion to monetary weapon to increase their chances of re-election, but without taking account the adverse effects of such a policy on price stability above all in developing countries . In this article and in the same path as that followed by Cukierman , Webb and Neyapti (1992) and Jacome (2001) the objective is to assess the degree of independence of the Central Bank of Tunisia

Credibility and monetary policy under inflation targeting

After more than two decades of inflation targeting in the world, it is important to evaluate if the adoption of this regime in a relevant developing country contributed to the creation of a better environment for the process of entrepreneurs' expectations formation. Brazil is part of an important group of developing countries and represents a potential laboratory experiment in which the effects of an adoption of inflation targeting after more than a decade can be evaluated. Not enough is known about the consequences of inflation targeting credibility on both monetary policy and monetary policy transmission channels in developing countries that adopted inflation targeting. Emphasizing the role of transparency and the credibility of monetary policy as a performance criterion that motivate any country wishing to adopt an inflation targeting regime, this study leads to the fact that these two basic principles toward which a inflation targeting regime cannot be achieved without respect for certain pre namely institutional and technical condition

Credibility and monetary policy under inflation targeting

After more than two decades of inflation targeting in the world, it is important to evaluate if the adoption of this regime in a relevant developing country contributed to the creation of a better environment for the process of entrepreneurs' expectations formation. Brazil is part of an important group of developing countries and represents a potential laboratory experiment in which the effects of an adoption of inflation targeting after more than a decade can be evaluated. Not enough is known about the consequences of inflation targeting credibility on both monetary policy and monetary policy transmission channels in developing countries that adopted inflation targeting. Emphasizing the role of transparency and the credibility of monetary policy as a performance criterion that motivate any country wishing to adopt an inflation targeting regime, this study leads to the fact that these two basic principles toward which a inflation targeting regime cannot be achieved without respect for certain pre namely institutional and technical condition

STABILITY OF MONEY DEMAND FUNCTION IN TUNISIA

International audienceThe aim of this paper is to give an answer to the question that remains wide open; Is Central Bank of Tunisia, capable to transmit all the information on the evolution of prices to economic agents through targeting monetary aggregates. To answer this question, a way that focuses on the stability of the money demand function through the test of Cumulative Sum of residues (SUMCU) and Chow's Forecast test is followed. The results of this study indicate that there is no significant and important relationship between money and prices either in short term or long term. In addition, by estimating the money demand function and its long-term stability, the results show that this relationship is not stable in the case of the Tunisian economy. Introduction The instability of money demand can be explained by the instability of the flow velocity. More frequently, the instability of the application is shown on the factors included in the demand function. Anderson (1985) identified three sources of instability in the demand for money, (i) the change in velocity in response to changes in interest rates as well as movements in other variables the demand function of the currency other than real income, (ii) The demand function of the currency itself may change. For example, financial innovations and releasing the interest rate may change the demand for money, and (iii) short-term monetary stocks actually provided may not correspond to the desired equilibrium. In other words, if the speed of adjustment is small compared to unexpected shocks, this can lead to unexpected changes in the velocity of circulation of money. 1. The relationship between money and prices in the Tunisian economy 1.1. Variables and data As Central Bank of Tunisia (CBT) targets the rate of increase in the money supply within the meaning of M3, then M3 is the variable used to measure changes in the money supply in the Tunisian economy. Concerning the measurement of inflation, changes in the price index (CPI) is the variable most suitable for our study. The adoption of the CPI instead of other measures of inflation is explained by two considerations. The first is the data. Indeed, the monthly data on the CPI are available for longer periods. The second consideration is the wide use of the CPI in the economic literature worldwide. While the CPI may involve some bais, it represents the most widely used measure as an indicator of inflation in empirical studies and analyzes of monetary policy. Regarding the sources of monthly data M2, M3 and CPI, they are issued by the IFC, and the CD-R 2008 IMF