The secret life of coronavirus: Why we need such drastic social distancing measures

Integrative Biolog

Estimated COVID-19 Mortality in China, December 16, 2022-January 19, 2023

The recent wave of COVID-19 in China peaked in late December of 2022, with 0.07 million deaths confirmed in hospitals between December 16, 2022 and January 19, 2023.Integrative Biolog

Mathematical Approaches to Infectious Disease Prediction and Control

Mathematics has long been an important tool for understanding and controlling the spread of infectious diseases. Here, we begin with an overview of compartmental models, the traditional approach to modeling infectious disease dynamics, and then introduce contact network epidemi- ology, a relatively new approach that applies bond percolation on random graphs to model the spread of infectious disease through heterogeneous populations. As we illustrate, these methods can be used to address public health challenges and have recently been coupled with powerful computational methods to optimize epidemic control strategies

The Experience of Two Independent Schools with In-Person Learning During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Background: In 2020, U.S schools closed due to SARS-CoV-2 but their role in transmission was unknown. In fall 2020, national guidance for reopening omitted testing or screening recommendations. We report the experience of 2 large independent K-12 schools (School-A and School-B) that implemented an array of SARS-CoV-2 mitigation strategies that included periodic universal testing. Methods: SARS-CoV-2 was identified through periodic universal PCR testing, self-reporting of tests conducted outside school, and contact tracing. Schools implemented behavioral and structural mitigation measures, including mandatory masks, classroom disinfecting, and social distancing. Results: Over the fall semester, School-A identified 112 cases in 2320 students and staff; School- B identified 25 cases (2.0%) in 1200 students and staff. Most cases were asymptomatic and none required hospitalization. Of 69 traceable introductions, 63(91%) were not associated with school-based transmission, 59 cases (54%) occurred in the 2 weeks post-Thanksgiving. In 6/7 clusters, clear noncompliance with mitigation protocols was found. The largest outbreak had 28 identified cases and was traced to an off-campus party. There was no transmission from students to staff. Conclusions: Although school-age children can contract and transmit SARS-CoV-2, rates of COVID- 19 infection related to in-person education were significantly lower than those in the surrounding community. However, social activities among students outside of school undermined those measures and should be discouraged, perhaps with behavioral contracts, to ensure the safety of school communities. In addition, introduction risks were highest following extended school breaks. These risks may be mitigated with voluntary quarantines and surveillance testing prior to re-opening.Integrative Biolog