Long-Run Relationship between Economic Growth and Stock Returns: An Empirical Investigation on Canada and the United States

This article examines the long run relationship between economic growth and stock prices for Canada and the United States through cointegration estimation procedure, and it implements the Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) to abstract simultaneously the short- and long-run information in the modeling process. Results from the cointegration tests reveal that economic growth and stock prices share long run equilibrium relationship for both Canada and the U.S. The results from the VECM indicate that for the U.S., causality runs from economic growth to stock prices but not vice versa. However for Canada, the results reveal that there is a bi-directional causality between economic growth and stock prices.stock returns; interest rates; economic growth; Canada; the United tates S

Determinants of Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Investigation on Turkey

This article aims at identifying the determinants of currency crises in Turkey the period 1980:01-2006:06. Following a general-to-specific model selection methodology, a broad set of pre-selected variables were tested through bivariate logit regressions. Significant variables were then used in a multivariate logit model. Strong evidence emerged that current account balance/GDP, short-term debt/long-term debt, domestic credit/GDP, foreign liabilities/foreign assets of banks, and fiscal balance/GDP are significant with correct signs. The measures of goodness-of-fit and in-sample predictive power of the model turned out to be favorable. The resulting model correctly calls 87.18% and 73.08% of the months at 10% and 20% levels, respectively.Speculative attacks; currency crises; logit model, Turkey.

ISE and Exchange Market Pressure

This article aims at investigating the long-run relationship between stock prices and speculative pressure in the Turkish exchange market through Granger-causality analysis for the period 1986:01-2006:11. For this purpose an Exchange Market Pressure Index is built using the weighted average of exchange rate changes, interest rate changes and foreign exchange reserve changes. This index is then used in pairwise causality analyses with Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) National-100 Index. Results of the ADF unit root tests suggest that the series are stationary. Hence, no-cointegration analysis was carried out before the Granger-causality tests. Results of Granger-causality indicates that there exists no long-run relationship between stock prices and the speculative pressure in the exchange market in Turkey.currency crises; stock prices; co-integration; exchange market pressure.

Russian Financial Crisis of 1998: An Econometric Investigation

This article aims at deriving lessons from the Russian financial crisis through examining the root causes of the crisis based on a probit model incorporating 20 monthly macroeconomic and financial sector indicators spanning the period 1988:1 – 1998:8. The results turned out to be as expected. Strong evidence emerged suggesting that the significant variables are foreign direct investment/GDP, inflation, world oil prices, real interest rates, current account/GDP, GDP per capita, foreign exchange reserves, stock prices, real exchange rate, and export growth. Signs of the variables were mostly in line with what one would have expected, except public debt, bank reserves / bank assets, real interest rates, and lending and deposit rate spread.Russian financial crisis, probit model, early warning systems

The Income Effects of Decentralization of Population in Korea: An Econometric Investigation

non-Capital Regions has become a serious issue despite the various decentralization policies instituted since the 1960’s. This study aims at analyzing the effect of decentralization of population in the capital region on income, and revealing the difference in productivity between the Capital and non-capital regions. The analysis begins with an estimate of production functions by region. It then analyzes the changes to employment as population decreases in the Capital region, and the economic effects on regional production through the movement of employment in each region. The results show that, decentralization in the capital region would result in decrease national income in Korea.Decentralization Policy; Total Factor Productivity; Product Function

Forecasting Inflation in Developing Nations: The Case of Pakistan

This study attempts to outline the practical steps which need to be undertaken to use autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series models for forecasting Pakistan’s inflation. A framework for ARIMA forecasting is drawn up. On the basis of insample and out-of-sample forecast it can be concluded that the model has sufficient predictive powers and the findings are well in line with those of other studies. Further, in this study, the main focus is to forecast the monthly inflation on short-term basis, for this purpose, different ARIMA models are used and the candid model is proposed. On the basis of various diagnostic and selection & evaluation criteria the best and accurate model is selected for the short term forecasting of inflation.Forecasting inflation; ARIMA

Is Sales Growth Associated with Market, Size and Value Factors in Returns? Evidence from Athens Stock Exchange (1998-2003)

This article investigates whether past sales growth of a firm is associated with market, size and value factors in returns so it can be inferred that this fundamental variable is related to size and book-to-market equity that help capture the cross-section of average stock returns in the Athens stock exchange during the period 1998-2003.The findings of the study provide supportive evidence that past sales growth of a firm is associated with market, size and value factors in returns so it can be inferred that this fundamental variable is related to size and book-to-market equity that help capture the cross-section of average stock returns in Athens Stock Exchange. Several unanswered questions arise from this study such as: (i) what are the underlying economic state variables that produce variation in earnings and returns related to size and BE/ME? (ii) do these unnamed state variables produce variation in consumption and wealth that is not captured by an overall market factor and so can explain the risk premiums in returns associated with size and BE/ME?Sales growth; market; value factors in returns

Impact of Liquidity on Speculative Pressure in the Exchange Market

Economies are susceptible to speculative attacks regardless of whether they use fixed or floating exchange rates. Turkish experience in the last two decades constitutes one of the most prominent examples proving this verdict. It is widely accepted that narrow money (M1) is the most conventional measure of liquidity, excessive growth of which may fuel speculative attacks on the currency. The literature on currency crises clearly lacks a country-specific study that addresses the long-run relationship between this indicator and the speculative pressure in the exchange market. This article aims at filling this gap in the literature using monthly Turkish time series data spanning the period 1984:04- 2006:11. Results of the ADF unit root tests suggest that the series are stationary. Hence, no-cointegration analysis was carried out before the Granger-causality tests. Granger causality tests reveal strong evidence supporting univariate causality running from narrow money (M1) to exchange market pressure. This outcome lends empirical support to the Turkish policy makers’ current efforts to maintain a tight control of the money supply.Speculative attacks; currency crises; domestic credit.

Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: An Application of Signals Approach to Turkey

This article aims at identifying the leading indicators of currency crises in Turkey in its post-liberalization history through the signals approach introduced by Kaminsky et al (1998). Based on a broad set of potential indicators, a number of variables are found to be persistently signaling the currency crises during the period 1980:01-2006:06. Particularly, variables such as short-term debt/international reserves, imports, exports, M2/international reserves, and current account balance/GDP are consistent with the results of previous work in the literature. Analysis of the average lead time of the indicators reveals that the first signal is issued 4.4 months before a crisis erupts with public debt/GDP offering the longest lead time with 10.2 months, and government consumption/GDP offering the shortest with 2.2 months. Analysis of the persistence of the indicators reveals that the indicator issuing the most persistent signals is the government consumption/GDP and the one issuing the least persistent signals is FDI/GDP. Results are encouraging from the vantage point of an early warning system since signaling, on average, occurs sufficiently early to allow preemptive policy actions.Speculative attacks; currency crises; signals approach, Turkey.

How Far Can Domestic Credit Growth Explain Speculative Attacks? Empirical Evidence from Turkey

Economies are susceptible to speculative attacks regardless of whether they use fixed or floating exchange rates. Turkish experience in the last two decades constitutes one of the most prominent examples proving this verdict. It is widely accepted that there is a link between domestic credit and speculative attacks on the currency. Nevertheless, the literature on currency crises clearly lacks a country-specific study that addresses the long-run relationship between this indicator and the speculative pressure in the exchange market. This article aims at filling this gap in the literature using monthly Turkish time series data spanning the period 1984:04- 2006:11. Results of the ADF unit root tests suggest that the series are stationary. Hence, no cointegration analysis was carried out before the Granger-causality tests. Granger causality tests fail to establish a causal relationship between domestic credit and exchange market pressure.Speculative attacks; currency crises; domestic credit.