Testing Purchasing Power Parity for the New EU Members and Turkey : Panel Cointegration Analysis with Disaggregated CPI

This study applies multivariate panel cointegration technique to evaluate PPP hypothesis by using consumer price sub-indices of new EU member transition economies and Turkey. We aim not only to compare parameter estimates across the sectors of an economy but also across the economies at different EU transition stages. We find that failure to get evidence for cointegration to support PPP can be attributed to the inclusion of non-tradable goods in the aggregated data, as well as to the extent of trade relationship.Purchasing Power Parity, Panel cointegration, European Union, Transition economies, Turkey

Unilateral and regional trade liberalization: China's WTO accession and FTA with ASEAN

This paper investigates the impacts of trade liberalization by China. Contrary to the previous work of Wong, this paper examines not only China's accession to the WTO, but also the formation of a China-ASEAN FTA. How these two forms of trade liberalization by China may affect international trade, international capital movement, commodity and factor prices, and welfare are analyzed.

Turkiye icin Yeni Reel Efektif Doviz Kuru Endeksleri

Bu calismanin amaci Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi tarafindan ilan edilen reel efektif doviz kuru endekslerinin guncellenmesidir. Bu cercevede olusturulan yeni endekslerle hesaplamaya dahil edilen ulke sayisi 19’dan 36’ya cikarilmis, ulke agirliklari icinse kullanilmakta olan 1988-1990 donemine ait ticaret verileri yerine 2006-2008 donemi ticaret akimlari kullanilarak, yakin donem ticaret gelismelerinin degisen agirliklar tarafindan kapsanmasi amaclanmistir. Bunlara ek olarak, fonksiyonel reel efektif kuru endeksleri olusturularak, bolgesel analize imkan veren, ic-dis pazar siniflandirmasinda rekabet kompozisyonu ayriminin yapilabilmesini saglayan endekslerle, TUFE ve UFE bazli endekslerin yaninda birim isgucu maliyetleri, gayri safi yurtici hasila deflatoru ve ihracat fiyatlari bazli endeksler de turetilmistir.Reel Efektif Doviz Kurur Endeksi, Turkiye

Yeni Endekslerle 2003-2010 Donemi Reel Efektif Doviz Kuru Gelismelerine Iliskin Gozlemler

Calismada Turkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasi (TCMB) tarafindan takip edilen reel efektif doviz kuru endekslerine iliskin guncelleme ozetlenmektedir. Olusturulan yeni endekslerle yakin donemdeki dis ticaret gelismelerinin efektif kur gostergeleri uzerine yansitilmasi amaclanmistir. Bu cecevede, hesaplamaya dahil edilen ulke sayisi artirilirken, ulke agirliklari 2006-2008 donemi ticaret akimlari kullanilarak guncellenmistir. Bunlara ek olarak, alternatif endeksler olusturularak, reel efektif doviz kuru gelismeleri farkli acilardan incelenmistir.

Dis Ticarette Kuresel Egilimler ve Turkiye Ekonomisi

Onceki yuzyil uluslararasi ticaretinin temelini olusturan endustriler arasi ticaret, yerini endustri içi ticarete birakirken, gelismekte olan ulkelerin ihracatinda sanayiinin, gelismis ulkelerin ihracatinda ise hizmetlerin payi artmistir. Teknolojik ilerlemeler, uluslararasi rekabetin artmasi, tasimacilik maliyetlerinin ve tarifelerin gerilemesi, uretim aktivitelerinin, farkli faktor yogunluguna sahip kucuk alt sureclere bolunerek, her bir surecin farkli bir ulkede gerceklestirilmesine olanak vermektedir. Yeni kuresel uretim surecleri bir taraftan gelismekte olan ulkelerin endustri urunleri ihracatini artirirken diger taraftan uretimin ithal sermaye ve aramali kullanimini artirmaktadir. Calismanin bulgulari, sekiz gelismekte olan ve sekiz gelismis ulke arasinda 1990'lardan 2000'lere dikey anlamda uretimde uzmanlasma yapisinin degistigini gostermektedir. Soz konusu donemde gelismis ulkelerin karsilastirmali ustunlukleri ara mallarinda kuvvetlenirken gelismekte olan ulkelerin nihai mallarda goreli avantajlari artmaktadir. Turkiye'nin tekstil ve makine-techizat sektorleri nihai mallarindaki aciklanmis karsilastirmali ustunluk endeksi, son on yilda, sinirli bir oranda iyilesme gosterirken, ana metal ve ulastirma araçlari sektorlerinde hizli bir sekilde artmistir. Gelismekte olan ulkeler arasinda Turkiye en yuksek, Cin ise en dusuk ara mali ithalat-ihracat oranina sahiptir. Sektorel olarak en fazla ara mali ithalati ulastirma araclari sektorunde yapilirken, onu ana metal sektorunun takip etmektedir. Cokuluslu sirketleri gelismekte olan ulkelerin uretim ve ihracat yapilarinin donusumunde onemli rol oynamaktadir. Turkiye'ye de ise dogrudan yatirimlar-ihracat ve buyume iliskisi goreli olarak daha zayifti.Dikey Uzmanlasma, Dogrudan yatirimlar, Ithalat bagimliligi, Aciklanmis karsilastirmali ustunluk.

Inflation Expectations in Turkey: Evidence from Panel Data

We investigated the rationality of financial and real sectors’ CPI inflation expectations in Turkey using the multivariate panel cointegration method. The use of panel techniques strengthened our empirical results by not only increasing sample size but also allowing heterogeneity across groups of respondents. Having found the expectations irrational in the stricter sense, we proceeded to analyze the significance of both past and future inflation rates as determinants of agents’ future inflation forecasts. Both recursive and rolling estimates show that forecasters’ weight on future/target inflation rates versus past actual and expected inflation rates changes over time as unexpected shocks derail inflation from its disinflationary path. Lastly, we find asymmetry in expectations such that the response of inflation expectations to an increase in the inflation rate is twice the size of the response to a decrease in the inflation rate. This may indicate long delays in restoring credibility of central banks after a positive shock on the inflation rate. JEL Classifications: C23, D84, E31 Keywords: Inflation expectations, Inflation formation, Panel cointegration, Recursive regression

Monetary Pressures and Inflation Dynamics in Turkey: Evidence from P-Star Model

This paper uses the P-star model to explain inflation dynamics in Turkey. In P-star models, money plays an important role by determining the price gap, which is postulated to measure the pressure on prices in the economy. This pressure emerges when output is above the potential, interest rate is lower than the natural rate, or there exists some excess money in the economy. The estimation results with the Turkish data show that the price gap does indeed contain considerable information for explaining inflation dynamics. Moreover, the model selection criterion that compares the empirical performance of the P-star model with the New Classical Phillips curve relationship favors the P-star model over the Phillips curve relationship. We conclude that money is efficacious in predicting risk to price stability in TurkeyMoney Demand, P-star, Inflation Dynamics