Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Estimation of the Variance-Covariance Matrix for the Almost Ideal Demand System

In this note I demonstrate the previously overlooked fact that if the AIDS aggregate demand model is constructed as the aggregation of individual consumer demands, then the error structure for any individual equation is necessarily heteroskedastic unless the distribution of income is constant across aggregates. Maximum likelihood estimation which ignores this heteroskedasticity yields inconsistent estimates of the variance-covariance matrix and renders likelihood ratio tests of the restrictions of consumer demand theory inappropriate. A heteroskedasticity-consistent estimator of the variance-covariance matrix is proposed by adopting the technique of White (1980) to the case at hand.

The Canada-U.S. Auto Pact of 1965: An Experiment in Selective Trade Liberalization

In this paper we analyse the Canada-U.S. Auto Pact, a selective trade liberalization agreement which created a duty-free North American market for the major U.S. multinational automobile producers, but continued to protect them from offshore producers. The new international trade/I.O. literature predicts that, given the probable unexploited economics of scale and specialization in the tariff-protected small Canadian economy prior to 1965, rationalization leading to large efficiency gains in Canadian production vis a vis U.S. production would occur in a free trade environment. We estimate that the Auto Pact did not induce a substantial improvement in Canadian relative production efficiency. The missing ingredient seems to have been the competition-increasing effects of free trade in an oligopolistic setting that is emphasized by the new trade/I.O. literature. The Auto Pact did not increase the number of rivals in the oligopolistic Canadian industry since the major players in the industry had production facilities on both sides of the Canada-U.S. border before 1965, and no significant new entry into Canada occurred. In the 1962-64 period, Canadian automotive production was 27% less efficient than U.S. production. By 1970-72 this deficiency had been reduced to 19%, but was not further reduced by the end of the 1970's. Of the 8 percentage points reduction in the Canadian disadvantage, we attribute only 3 percentage points to the rationalization process induced specifically by the Auto Pact.

Productivity Growth in the Automobile Industry, 1970-1980: A Comparisonof Canada, Japan and the United States

In this paper we calculate and analyze the automobile industries cost and productivity experience during the 1970 's in Canada, the U.S.and Japan. Utilizing an econometric cost function methodology, we are able to isolate the major source of short-run disequilibrium in this industry-variations' in capacity utilization-and analyze its effects on cost and total factor productivity (TFP) gross. This is achieved through a novel application of the Viner-Wng envelope theorem, which allows us to track short-run behavior utilizing what is essentially a long-run cost function.To striking empirical results energe. First, TFP grew much faster in the Japanese automobile industry (4.3% annum) than in the Canadian (1.4%) and U. S.(1.6%) industries. Second, the importance in analyzing variations in capacity utilization is confinned by the fact that failure to correct for this source of productivity change would have led to a 31% under estimate of long-run TFP growth in Canada arid a 37% underestimate for the United States.

The Extent and Sources of Cost and Efficiency Differences Between U.S. and Japanese Automobile Producers

In this paper we present for the first time estimates of cost and efficiency differences between U.S. and Japanese producers based on an econometric cost function methodology rather than the accounting frameworks previously used. We demonstrate that the cost difference estimates for 1979 which were influential in the debate that resulted in the Voluntary Restraints Agreements of 1981-85 were substantial over estimates of the Japanese advantage. While our estimate of the Japanese cost advantage for 1980 is similar to previous estimates, we attribute most of this advantage to short-run phenomena -underutilization of U.S. production capacity and an undervalued yen. In a previous paper we have shown that the Japanese TFP growth rate was much faster than the U.S. rate during the 1970's. However we estimate the long-run underlying Japanese efficiency advantage as of 1980 to have been only 1-2%, much less than previously estimated. This results from the fact that Japan began the 1970's with a long-run efficiency disadvantage of over 20%, and the decade of the 1970's represented a catch-up period for Japanese producers.

The Effects of Capital Subsidization on Israeli Industry

An industrial policy of subsidizing physical capital investment has been utilized in many countries in order to encourage export growth and spread economic development to outlying areas. For Israel, we possess a unique time series-cross section micro data set that details investment and its associated subsidies by vintage at the level of the individual enterprise for 620 firms. These data provide the means by which an empirical analysis of the effects of the policy of subsidizing capital can be undertaken. We estimate that, for the years 1990-94, this policy has resulted in production inefficiencies ranging from 5% for firms that receive the average level of subsidies to 15% for heavily subsidized firms. We also document the fact that much of the subsidization appears not to have been necessary, in the sense that subsidized firms generally have earned higher rates of return on their total physical capital (included that portion which was subsidized) than firms that were not subsidized.

Productivity measurement using capital asset valuation to adjust for variations in utilization

Also released as Working Paper No. 8125, Institute for Policy Analysis, University of Toronto. *An earlier version was presented at the econometric Society Summer Meetings, San Diego, California, June 24-27, 1981.Although a great deal of empirical research on productivity measurement has taken place in the last decade, one issue remaining particularly controversial and decisive is the manner by which one adjusts the productivity residual for variations in capital and capacity utilization. In this paper we use the Marshallian framework of a short run production or cost function with certain inputs quasi-fixed to provide a theoretical basis for accounting for variations in utilization. The theoretical model implies that the value of services from stocks of quasi-fixed inputs should be altered rather than their quantity. This represents a departure from previous procedures that have adjusted the quantity of capital services for variations in utilization. In the empirical illustration, we employ Tobin's q to measure the shadow value of capital, and find that for the U.S. manufacturing sector, we can attribute 25% of the traditionally measured decline in productivity growth during 1973-77 to a decline in capacity utilization.Research supported by the Department of Energy, under Contract EX-76-A-Ol-2295, Task Order 67

High Tech Firms in Israeli Industry

The main purpose of this study is to characterize and analyze high technology industrial firms in Israel. We are able to advance beyond previous empirical studies of high technology because we have access to a unique individual firm data set, a sample of 670 establishments in Israel for the year 1982. Not only do we have basic production data at the individual firm level, but also each firm's capital stock revalued to 1982 dollars. A technology index is constructed from three technological indicators -- substantial R&D investment, a high proportion of the work force consisting of engineers and technicians, and a high proportion of the capital stock being of recent vintages. This technology index is used to classify firms. The largest concentration of High Tech firms are found in electronics and transport equipment industries, and the lowest in textiles and clothing. High Tech firms appear to be more productive, pay higher wages, and earn higher rates of return. Part of the higher wages to workers in High Tech firms accrue in the form of rents whereby workers in these firms exappropriate a portion of monopoly profits, a phenomenon which does not appear to be the case for Low Tech firms.

Economic Capacity Utilization and Productivity Measurement for Multi-product firms with multiple quasi-fixed inputs

In this paper we develop measures of economic capacity output and economic capacity utilization for firms producing multiple outputs and having one or .ore quasi-fixed inputs. Although we produce an impossibility theorem showing that based only on the assumption of cost minimization, the concept of capacity output is undefined whenever the number of outputs I exceeds the number of fixed inputs M, we are able to provide alternative constructive procedures for defining capacity output whenever I [is less than] M. We also propose a number of additional primal and dual measures of utilization of the variable and fixed inputs, including a multi-fixed input analog to Tobin's q. We relate these alternative utilization measures to one another, and show that unambiguous inequality relationships among them (relative to unity) can typically be specified a priori only under rather restrictive assumptions. We show that unless restrictive assumptions are made. the multi-fixed input analogs to Tobin's q have little informational content regarding incentives for net investment of any specific fixed input. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of the alternative utilization measures by showing how they can be incorporated to adjust traditional measures of multi factor productivity growth for variations in short-run utilization.