Running and Jumping Variables in RD Designs: Evidence Based on Race, Socioeconomic Status, and Birth Weights

Throughout the years spanned by the U.S. Vital Statistics Linked Birth and Infant Death Data (1983-2002), birth weights are measured most precisely for children of white and highly educated mothers. As a result, less healthy children, who are more likely to be of low socioeconomic status, are disproportionately represented at multiples of round numbers. This has crucial implications for any study using a regression discontinuity design in which birth weights are used as the running variable. For example, estimates will be biased in a manner that leads one to conclude that it is “good” to be strictly to the left of any 100-gram cutoff. As such, prior estimates of the effects of very low birth weight classification (Almond, Doyle, Kowalski, and Williams 2010) have been overstated and appear to be zero. This analysis highlights a more general problem that can afflict regression discontinuity designs. In cases where attributes related to the outcomes of interest predict heaping in the running variable, estimated effects are likely to be biased. We discuss approaches to diagnosing and correcting for this type of problem.regression discontinuity, donut RD, birth weight, infant mortality

Changing the Price of Marriage: Evidence from Blood Test Requirements

We use state repeals of blood test requirements for a marriage license that occurred between 1980 and 2005 to examine the impact of changes in the price of marriage on the marriage decision. Using a within-group estimator that holds constant state and year effects and exploits variation in the repeal dates of BTRs across states, we find that BTRs are associated with a 5.7% decrease in marriage licenses issued by a state. Using individual-level marriage license data from 1981-1995, we find that about half of this effect is due to couples seeking marriage licenses in other states, with the other half is due to deterred marriages. We also examine the marital status of mothers using birth certificate and Current Population Survey data, and find that blood test requirements reduce the fraction of first-time mothers who are married at the time of birth. The marriage-deterrent effects of BTRs are larger for lower socio-economic groups.

Title Ix And The Education Of Teen Mothers

Title IX of the 1972 Educational Amendments to the Civil Rights Act (Title IX) made it illegal for an institution receiving Federal funding to exclude pregnant/parenting teens from the classroom. During the 1970s, education outcomes improved for all women but especially for teen mothers. I examine whether Title IX can explain any part of the advances for teen mothers. Opportunity costs of staying in school decrease for a larger fraction of teens in areas where teen motherhood rates are higher prior to Title IX. I use this variation to test whether teens in areas with higher pre-Title IX teen motherhood rates exhibit larger educational gains than teens in other areas. Next I examine whether these gains are higher for teen mothers versus individuals who are not teen mothers. My results suggest that Title IX improved teen mothers’ education outcomes and that these effects are most pronounced for black teen mothers

Worth The Wait? The Effect Of Early Term Birth On Maternal And Infant Health

Early term birth is defined as birth at 37 or 38 weeks gestation. While infants born early term are not considered premature, the medical literature suggests that they have an increased risk of serious adverse health outcomes compared to infants born at term (39 or 40 weeks). Despite these known harms, we document a rise in early term births in the United States from 1989 to the mid-2000s, followed by a decline in recent years. We posit that the recent decline in early term births has been driven by changes in medical practice advocated by the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, programs such as the March of Dimes’ “Worth the Wait” campaign, and by Medicaid policy. We first show that this pattern cannot be attributed to changes in the demographic composition of mothers, and provide some evidence that efforts to reduce early term elective deliveries (EEDs) through Medicaid policy were effective. We next exploit county-level variation in the timing of these changes in medical practice to examine the effect of early term inductions (our proxy for EEDs) on infant and maternal health. We find that early term inductions lower birth weights and increase the risks of precipitous labor, birth injury, and required ventilation. Our results suggest that reductions in early term inductions can explain about one-third of the overall increase in birth weights between 2010 and 2013 for births at 37 weeks gestation and above

Increasing Derivatives Market Activity in Emerging Markets and Exchange Rate Exposure

Understanding the effects of off-balance sheet transactions on interest and exchange rate exposures has become more important for emerging market countries that are experiencing remarkable growth in derivatives markets. Using firm level data, we report a significant fall in exposure over the past 10 years and relate this to higher derivatives market participation. Our methodology is composed of a three stage approach: First, we measure foreign exchange exposures using the Adler-Dumas (1984) model. Next, we follow an indirect approach to infer derivatives market participation at the firm level. Finally, we study the relationship between exchange rate exposure and derivatives market participation. Our results show that foreign exchange exposure is negatively related to derivatives market participation, and support the hedging explanation of the exchange rate exposure puzzle. This decline is especially salient in the financial sector, for bigger firms, and over longer time periods. Results are robust to using different exchange rates, a GARCH-SVAR approach to measure exchange rate exposure, and different return horizons

Increasing Derivatives Market Activity in Emerging Markets and Exchange Rate Exposure

Understanding the effects of off-balance sheet transactions on interest and exchange rate exposures has become more important for emerging market countries that are experiencing remarkable growth in derivatives markets. Using firm level data, we report a significant fall in exposure over the past 10 years and relate this to higher derivatives market participation. Our methodology is composed of a three stage approach: First, we measure foreign exchange exposures using the Adler-Dumas (1984) model. Next, we follow an indirect approach to infer derivatives market participation at the firm level. Finally, we study the relationship between exchange rate exposure and derivatives market participation. Our results show that foreign exchange exposure is negatively related to derivatives market participation, and support the hedging explanation of the exchange rate exposure puzzle. This decline is especially salient in the financial sector, for bigger firms, and over longer time periods. Results are robust to using different exchange rates, a GARCH-SVAR approach to measure exchange rate exposure, and different return horizons

Taxes, Transfers, And Women\u27S Labor Supply In The United States

The US tax and transfer system generates revenue and provides safety net programs that move millions out of poverty. Since women are more likely to live in poverty, they are more likely to qualify for means-tested transfers. The structure of taxation in the United States often penalizes secondary earners, who are usually women. These programs alter work incentives and consequently may affect labor supply decisions. In this chapter, we examine the empirical evidence on the effects of taxes and transfers on the labor supply of women in the United States. We show that much has changed since 1990, with the biggest shift being a change from cash transfers via welfare to refundable tax credits to workers. Overall, the evidence we review shows women have higher labor force participation and are less responsive to changes in after-tax wages than they were before 1990, but the labor supply effects vary substantially by program considered