A scientific exploration of scenario planning, thinking, and cognitive biases

Scenario planning, as a recognised practice, is approaching the better part of a century. In this time it has experienced broad application across various industries and, as of late, growing popularity as an academic discipline. In stark contrast to its prolific use in the field and academia, is the lack in scholarly work that brings verifiable and robust knowledge regarding the efficacy of the practice. In order to understand the impact of scenario planning interventions, it is first necessary to understand scenario thinking. The importance of investigating scenario thinking lies in the notion that scenario planning has less to do with forecasting (i.e. aiming for facts) and more to do with futures-thinking (i.e. working with perceptions). The mental models, experiences, and abilities of scenario teams largely dictate the efficacy of a scenario planning intervention. At this time, however, scenario thinking remains a black box. The present investigation, first, provides a discussion on how to understand scenario thinking. A gestalt perspective is offered, where discrete cognitive features are defined, which comprise the structure of scenario thinking. The motivation to this discussion is understanding the level(s) of influence scenario thinking may succumb to, in the face of changes to external information. Next, three higher-order cognitions (creative, causal, and evaluative thinking) are explored, in depth, and tested against the Intuitive Logics model of scenario planning to help determine i) the robustness of scenario planning against ii) the influence of the cognitive experience. A multi-attribute approach is taken, borrowing methods from cognitive psychology, behavioural economics, and management science. A form of the traditional framing manipulation is used to measure for biases in scenario thinking. Results suggest that even the smallest change in information can lead to several biasing effects across the tested cognitive features of scenario thinking. Understanding the nature of influences on scenario thinking helps reveal the efficacy of scenario planning for management and organisations.Scenario planning, as a recognised practice, is approaching the better part of a century. In this time it has experienced broad application across various industries and, as of late, growing popularity as an academic discipline. In stark contrast to its prolific use in the field and academia, is the lack in scholarly work that brings verifiable and robust knowledge regarding the efficacy of the practice. In order to understand the impact of scenario planning interventions, it is first necessary to understand scenario thinking. The importance of investigating scenario thinking lies in the notion that scenario planning has less to do with forecasting (i.e. aiming for facts) and more to do with futures-thinking (i.e. working with perceptions). The mental models, experiences, and abilities of scenario teams largely dictate the efficacy of a scenario planning intervention. At this time, however, scenario thinking remains a black box. The present investigation, first, provides a discussion on how to understand scenario thinking. A gestalt perspective is offered, where discrete cognitive features are defined, which comprise the structure of scenario thinking. The motivation to this discussion is understanding the level(s) of influence scenario thinking may succumb to, in the face of changes to external information. Next, three higher-order cognitions (creative, causal, and evaluative thinking) are explored, in depth, and tested against the Intuitive Logics model of scenario planning to help determine i) the robustness of scenario planning against ii) the influence of the cognitive experience. A multi-attribute approach is taken, borrowing methods from cognitive psychology, behavioural economics, and management science. A form of the traditional framing manipulation is used to measure for biases in scenario thinking. Results suggest that even the smallest change in information can lead to several biasing effects across the tested cognitive features of scenario thinking. Understanding the nature of influences on scenario thinking helps reveal the efficacy of scenario planning for management and organisations

Associations between Sleep Problems and Anxiety in Youth

Most of us are able to recall sleepless nights during periods of heightened anxiety, and the associations between sleep and anxiety are sufficiently well established to be acknowledged in the DSM-IV (American Psychiatric Association, 1994). Indeed, sleeprelated difficulties are included in the diagnostic criteria for posttraumatic stress disorder, acute stress disorder and generalized anxiety disorder. In contrast to the wealth of literature highlighting associations between sleep problems and anxiety in adults, less is known about these associations in children and adolescents. It is important to understand associations between disorders as there is evidence to suggest that co-occurring difficulties may result in greater impairment than those occurring alone. For example, a study focusing upon depression found that individuals with co-occurring disorders were more likely to demonstrate suicidal behaviour as compared to those with pure depression (Rohde et al., 1991). Furthermore, focusing upon children is important as various difficulties, including anxiety, may appear early in life and persist into adulthood (Kim- Cohen et al., 2003). This article summarises some key findings with regards to the associations between sleep problems and anxiety in youth and proposes possible clinical implications of this research

A case for the standardized assessment of testamentary capacity

© 2018 Author(s). Published by the Canadian Geriatrics Society. Background: With an increasingly aged, frail population that holds a disproportionate amount of wealth, clinicians (especially those with expertise in older adults) may be asked with more frequency to offer a clinical opinion on testamentary capacity (TC), the mental capacity to make a will. Method: This paper reviews the legal criteria as well as the empirical research on assessment tools for determining testamentary capacity (TC). We also review the relevance of instruments used for the assessment of other decisional capacities in order to evince the potential value of developing a standardized assessment of TC for clinician experts. Results: The legal criteria, often referred to as a test , for determining requisite TC (Banks v. Goodfellow) have remained much the same since 1870 with minimal clinical input and, as such, there has been little development in TC assessment instruments. Decisional instruments designed to assess Consent to Treatment may have relevance for TC. Conclusion: We make the case for a semi-structured interview that includes standardized criteria for the legal test for TC, supplemented by a validated brief neuropsychological assessment, which together comprise a Contemporaneous Assessment Instrument (CAI) for TC

Gene Combination Transfer to Block Autoimmune Damage in Transplanted Islets of Langerhans

Islet transplantation therapy would be applicable to a wider range of diabetic patients if donor islet acceptance and protection were possible without systemic immunosuppression of the recipient. To this aim, gene transfer to isolated donor islets ex vivo is one method that has shown promise. This study examines the combined effect of selected immunomodulatory and anti-inflammatory genes known to extend the functional viability of pancreatic islet grafts in an autoimmune system. These genes, indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase (IDO), manganese superoxide dismutase (MnSOD), and interleukin (IL)-1 receptor antagonist protein (IRAP), were transferred to isolated NOD donor islets ex vivo then transplanted to NODscid recipients and evaluated in vivo after diabetogenic T-cell challenge. The length of time the recipient remained euglycemic was used to measure the ability of the transgenes to protect the graft from autoimmune destruction. Although the results of these cotransfections gave little evidence of a synergistic relationship, they were useful to show that gene combinations can be used to more efficiently protect islet grafts from diabetogenic T cells

The Extended Blue Continuum and Line Emission around the Central Radio Galaxy in Abell 2597

We present results from detailed imaging of the centrally dominant radio elliptical galaxy in the cooling flow cluster Abell 2597, using data obtained with the Wide Field and Planetary Camera 2 (WFPC2) on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). This object is one of the archetypal "blue-lobed" cooling flow radio elliptical galaxies, also displaying a luminous emission-line nebula, a compact radio source, and a significant dust lane and evidence of molecular gas in its center. We show that the radio source is surrounded by a complex network of emission-line filaments, some of which display a close spatial association with the outer boundary of the radio lobes. We present a detailed analysis of the physical properties of ionized and neutral gas associated with the radio lobes, and show that their properties are strongly suggestive of direct interactions between the radio plasma and ambient gas. We resolve the blue continuum emission into a series of knots and clumps, and present evidence that these are most likely due to regions of recent star formation. We investigate several possible triggering mechanisms for the star formation, including direct interactions with the radio source, filaments condensing from the cooling flow, or the result of an interaction with a gas-rich galaxy, which may also have been responsible for fueling the active nucleus. We propose that the properties of the source are plausibly explained in terms of accretion of gas by the cD during an interaction with a gas-rich galaxy, which combined with the fact that this object is located at the center of a dense, high-pressure ICM can account for the high rates of star formation and the strong confinement of the radio source.Comment: Astrophysical Journal, in press, 34 pages, includes 6 PostScript figures. Latex format, uses aaspp4.sty and epsf.sty file

Use of continuous glucose monitoring in young children with type 1 diabetes: implications for behavioral research

Patton SR, Williams LB, Eder SJ, Crawford MJ, Dolan L, Powers SW. Use of continuous glucose monitoring in young children with type 1 diabetes: implications for behavioral research.Objective: This study presents data on the use of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) in young children with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). CGM provides moment-to-moment tracking of glucose concentrations and measures of intra- and interday variability, which are particularly salient measures in young children with T1DM.Methods: Thirty-one children (mean age = 5.0 yr ) with T1DM wore the Medtronic Minimed CGM for a mean of 66.8 h. The CGM was inserted in diabetes clinics, and parents were provided brief training.Results: Few difficulties were experienced and families cited the acceptability of CGM. Participants' CGM data are compared with self-monitoring blood glucose (SMBG) data as well as data from older children with T1DM to illustrate differences in methodology and variability present in this population. CGM data are used to calculate glucose variability, which is found to be related to diabetes variables such as history of hypoglycemic seizures.Conclusions: CGM is an acceptable research tool for obtaining glucose data in young children with T1DM and has been used previously in older children and adults. CGM may be particularly useful in young children who often experience more glucose variability. Data obtained via CGM are richer and more detailed than traditional SMBG data and allow for analyses to link blood glucose with behavior.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78635/1/j.1399-5448.2010.00649.x.pd

A Deep Look at the Emission-Line Nebula in Abell 2597

The close correlation between cooling flows and emission-line nebulae in clusters of galaxies has been recognized for over a decade and a half, but the physical reason for this connection remains unclear. Here we present deep optical spectra of the nebula in Abell 2597, one of the nearest strong cooling-flow clusters. These spectra reveal the density, temperature, and metal abundances of the line-emitting gas. The abundances are roughly half-solar, and dust produces an extinction of at least a magnitude in V. The absence of [O III] 4363 emission rules out shocks as a major ionizing mechanism, and the weakness of He II 4686 rules out a hard ionizing source, such as an active galactic nucleus or cooling intracluster gas. Hot stars are therefore the best candidate for producing the ionization. However, even the hottest O stars cannot power a nebula as hot as the one we see. Some other nonionizing source of heat appears to contribute a comparable amount of power. We show that the energy flux from a confining medium can become important when the ionization level of a nebula drops to the low levels seen in cooling-flow nebulae. We suggest that this kind of phenomenon, in which energy fluxes from the surrounding medium augment photoelectric heating, might be the common feature underlying the diverse group of objects classified as LINERS.Comment: 33 Latex pages, including 16 Postscript figures, to appear in 1997 September 1 Astrophysical Journa

Is schizotypic maternal personality linked to sensory gating abilities during infancy?

Schizotypy is a personality dimension within the general population elevated among schizophrenia-spectrum patients and their first-degree relatives. Sensory gating is the pre-attentional habituation of responses distinguishing between important and irrelevant information. This is measured by event-related potentials, which have been found to display abnormalities in schizophrenic disorders. The current study investigated whether 6-month-old infants of mothers with schizotypic traits display sensory gating abnormalities. The paired-tone paradigm: two identical auditory tones (stimulus 1 and stimulus 2) played 500 ms apart, was used to probe the selective activation of the brain during 15-minutes of sleep. Their mothers completed the Oxford and Liverpool Inventory of Feelings and Experiences-Short Form as an index of schizotypy dimensionality, categorized into: infants of control, and infants of schizotypic, mothers. The findings revealed that although the infants' P50 components displayed significant differences between stimulus 1 and stimulus 2 in the paired-tone paradigm, there was no clear difference between infants of schizotypic and infants of control mothers. In contrast, all mothers displayed significant differences between stimulus 1 and stimulus 2, as observed in the infants, but also significant differences between their sensory gating ability correlated with schizotypy dimensionality. These findings are consistent with sensory processes, such as sensory gating, evidencing impairment in schizophrenia-spectrum disorders. The present research supports the idea that first-degree relatives of individuals who identify on this spectrum, within the sub-clinical category, do not display the same deficit at 6 postnatal months of age

Considerations and challenges in support of science and communication of fish consumption advisories for per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances

Federal, state, tribal, or local entities in the United States issue fish consumption advisories (FCAs) as guidance for safer consumption of locally caught fish containing contaminants. Fish consumption advisories have been developed for commonly detected compounds such as mercury and polychlorinated biphenyls. The existing national guidance does not specifically address the unique challenges associated with bioaccumulation and consumption risk related to per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). As a result, several states have derived their own PFAS-related consumption guidelines, many of which focus on one frequently detected PFAS, known as perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS). However, there can be significant variation between tissue concentrations or trigger concentrations (TCs) of PFOS that support the individual state-issued FCAs. This variation in TCs can create challenges for risk assessors and risk communicators in their efforts to protect public health. The objective of this article is to review existing challenges, knowledge gaps, and needs related to issuing PFAS-related FCAs and to provide key considerations for the development of protective fish consumption guidance. The current state of the science and variability in FCA derivation, considerations for sampling and analytical methodologies, risk management, risk communication, and policy challenges are discussed. How to best address PFAS mixtures in the development of FCAs, in risk assessment, and establishment of effect thresholds remains a major challenge, as well as a source of uncertainty and scrutiny. This includes developments better elucidating toxicity factors, exposures to PFAS mixtures, community fish consumption behaviors, and evolving technology and analytical instrumentation, methods, and the associated detection limits. Given the evolving science and public interests informing PFAS-related FCAs, continued review and revision of FCA approaches and best practices are vital. Nonetheless, consistent, widely applicable, PFAS-specific approaches informing methods, critical concentration thresholds, and priority compounds may assist practitioners in PFAS-related FCA development and possibly reduce variability between states and jurisdictions