Block Motion Changes in Japan Triggered by the 2011 Great Tohoku Earthquake

Plate motions are governed by equilibrium between basal and edge forces. Great earthquakes may induce differential static stress changes across tectonic plates, enabling a new equilibrium state. Here we consider the torque balance for idealized circular plates and find a simple scalar relationship for changes in relative plate speed as a function of its size, upper mantle viscosity, and coseismic stress changes. Applied to Japan, the 2011 $\mathrm{M}_{\mathrm{W}}=9.0$ Tohoku earthquake generated coseismic stresses of $10^2-10^5$~Pa that could have induced changes in motion of small (radius $\sim100$~km) crustal blocks within Honshu. Analysis of time-dependent GPS velocities, with corrections for earthquake cycle effects, reveals that plate speeds may have changed by up to $\sim3$ mm/yr between $\sim3.75$-year epochs bracketing this earthquake, consistent with an upper mantle viscosity of $\sim 5\times10^{18}$Pa$\cdot$s, suggesting that great earthquakes may modulate motions of proximal crustal blocks at frequencies as high as $10^-8$~Hz

Geodetic Imaging of Coseismic Slip and Postseismic Afterslip: Sparsity Promoting Methods Applied to the Great Tohoku Earthquake

Geodetic observations of surface displacements during and following earthquakes such as the March 11, 2011 great Tohoku earthquake can be used to constrain the spatial extent of coseismic slip and postseismic afterslip, and characterize the spectrum of earthquake cycle behaviors. Slip models are often regularized by assuming that slip on the fault varies smoothly in space, which may result in the artificial smearing of fault slip beyond physical boundaries. Alternatively, it may be desirable to estimate a slip distribution that is spatially compact and varies sharply. Here we show that sparsity promoting state vector regularization methods can be used to recover slip distributions with sharp boundaries, representing an alternative end-member result to very smooth slip distributions. Using onshore GPS observations at 298 stations during and in the ∼2 weeks following the Tohoku earthquake, we estimate a band of coseismic slip between 30 and 50 km depth extending 500 km along strike with a maximum slip of 64 m, corresponding to a minimum magnitude estimate of $M_W = 8.8$. Our estimate of afterslip is located almost exclusively down-dip of the coseismic rupture, with a transition between 40 and 50 km depth and an equivalent moment magnitude $M_W = 8.2$. This depth may be interpreted as coincident with the transition from velocity strengthening to velocity weakening frictional behavior, consistent with the upper limit of cold subduction estimates of the thermal structure of the Japan trench.Earth and Planetary Science

Edge-Driven Mechanical Microplate Models of Strike-Slip Faulting in the Tibetan Plateau

The India-Asia collision zone accommodates the relative motion between India and Eurasia through both shortening and pervasive strike-slip faulting. To gain a mechanical understanding of how fault slip rates are driven across the Tibetan plateau, we develop a two-dimensional, linear elastic, two-stage, deformable microplate model for the upper crust based on the behavior of an idealized earthquake cycle. We use this approach to develop a suite of simple India-Asia collision zone models, differing only in boundary conditions, to determine which combination of edge forces and displacements are consistent with both the slip rate measurements along major Tibetan faults as well as the geodetically observed extrusion of crustal material toward Southeast Asia. Model predictions for the Altyn Tagh (1–14 mm/yr), Kunlun (3–10 mm/yr), Karakorum (5–12 mm/yr), and Haiyuan (3–5 mm/yr) faults are in agreement with geologically and geodetically inferred slip rates. Further, models that accurately reproduce observed slip rate gradients along the Altyn Tagh and Kunlun faults feature two critical boundary conditions: (1) oblique compressive displacement along the Himalayan range front west of the Shillong plateau, and (2) forcing in Southeast Asia. Additionally, the ratio of internal-block potency rate to the total potency rate for each microplate ranges from 28% to 79%, suggesting a hybrid view of deformation in Tibet as simultaneously localized on major faults and distributed at length scales <500 km.Earth and Planetary Science

Spatial Correlation of Interseismic Coupling and Coseismic Rupture Extent of the 2011 MW_W = 9.0 Tohoku-oki Earthquake

Imaging the extent to which the rupture areas of great earthquakes coincide with regions of pre-seismic interplate coupling is central to understanding patterns of strain accumulation and release through the earthquake cycle. Both geodetic and seismic estimates of the coseismic rupture extent for the March 11, 2011 $M_W = 8.9–9.0$ earthquake Tohoku-oki earthquake may be spatially correlated (0.26 ± 0.05 to 0.82 ± 0.05) with a region estimated to be partially to fully coupled in the interseismic period preceding the earthquake, though there is substantial variation in the estimated distribution and magnitude of coseismic slip. The ∼400 km-long region estimated to have slipped ≥4 m corresponds to an area of the subduction zone interface that was coupled at ≥30% of long-term plate convergence rate, with peak slip near a region coupled ≥80%. The northern termination of rupture is collocated with a region of relatively low (<20%) interseismic coupling near the epicenter of the 1994 $M_W = 7.6$ Sanriku-oki earthquake, and near a region of potential long-term low coupling or ongoing slow slip. Slip on the subduction interface beneath the coastline (40–50 km depth) is best constrained by the land-based GPS data and least constrained on the shallowest portion of the plate interface due to the ∼230 km distance between geodetic observations and the Japan trench.Earth and Planetary Science

Spatial Correlation of Interseismic Coupling and Coseismic Rupture Extent of the 2011 MW=9.0 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake

Imaging the extent to which the rupture areas of great earthquakes coincide with regions of pre-seismic interplate coupling is central to understanding patterns of strain accumulation and release through the earthquake cycle. Both geodetic and seismic estimates of the coseismic rupture extent for the March 11, 2011 MW = 8.9–9.0 earthquake Tohoku-oki earthquake may be spatially correlated (0.26 ± 0.05 to 0.82 ± 0.05) with a region estimated to be partially to fully coupled in the interseismic period preceding the earthquake, though there is substantial variation in the estimated distribution and magnitude of coseismic slip. The ∼400 km-long region estimated to have slipped ≥4 m corresponds to an area of the subduction zone interface that was coupled at ≥30% of long-term plate convergence rate, with peak slip near a region coupled ≥80%. The northern termination of rupture is collocated with a region of relatively low (\u3c20%) interseismic coupling near the epicenter of the 1994 MW = 7.6 Sanriku-oki earthquake, and near a region of potential long-term low coupling or ongoing slow slip. Slip on the subduction interface beneath the coastline (40–50 km depth) is best constrained by the land-based GPS data and least constrained on the shallowest portion of the plate interface due to the ∼230 km distance between geodetic observations and the Japan trench

Earthquake Cycle Deformation in the Tibetan Plateau with a Weak Mid-Crustal Layer

Geodetic observations of interseismic deformation across the Tibetan plateau contain information about both tectonic and earthquake cycle processes. Time-variations in surface velocities between large earthquakes are sensitive to the rheological structure of the subseismogenic crust, and, in particular, the viscosity of the middle and lower crust. Here we develop a semianalytic solution for time-dependent interseismic velocities resulting from viscoelastic stress relaxation in a localized midcrustal layer in response to forcing by a sequence of periodic earthquakes. Earthquake cycle models with a weak midcrustal layer exhibit substantially more near-fault preseismic strain localization than do classic two-layer models at short (50 mm/yr) postseismic velocities in the years following the coseismic ruptures. We suggest that earthquake cycle models with a localized midcrustal layer can simultaneously explain both preseismic and postseismic geodetic observations with a single Maxwell viscosity, while the classic two-layer model requires a rheology with multiple relaxation time scales.Earth and Planetary Science

Kinematic models of interseismic deformation in Southern California

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, 2004.Includes bibliographical references.We develop a framework for interpreting geodetic measurements of interseismic deformation and geologic slip rate estimates in terms of block motions. This method accounts for the effects of block rotations and interseismic strain accumulation from active fults. We find that the San Andreas Fault slips close to Its Holocene rate in the Carrizo Plain (35.6 [plus-minus] 0.5 mm/yr) but is five times slower near San Bernadino (6.6 [plus-minus] 2.7 mm/yr). Thrust faults underneath Los Angeles, the Ventura Basin, and the San Gabriel range front all exhibit active shortening from 0.5 to 13.5 mm/yr. We suggest that differences between paleoseismic and block model slip rate estimates may be explained by changes in fault slip rates through the Holocene. The viscoelastic rheology of the non-brittle upper lithosphere may give rise to time dependent surface deformation though the seismic cycle. We extend a classic theory from periodic to temporally clustered earthquakes by superposing several out of phase earthquake cycles. This new model displays a much wider range of behaviors than does the periodic earthquake cycle model and provides a mechanism to explain apparent discrepancies between geologic and geodetic slip rate estimates. The potential for large earthquakes in an active fault system is determined by the balance between coseismic moment release and interseismic moment accumulation. We identify regions of local moment deficit in Southern California by comparing historical earthquake catalogs with the fault slip rate catalogs derived from both geologic and geodetic data. Large moment release deficits are localized in the northern Mojave Desert, San Jacinto fault, San Andreas fault, and the greater Los Angeles area. We estimate the(cont.) minimum size earthquake sources (M > 7) required to relieve these deficits.by Brendan J. Meade.Ph.D

Inference of Multiple Earthquake-Cycle Relaxation Timescales from Irregular Geodetic Sampling of Interseismic Deformation

Characterizing surface deformation throughout a full earthquake cycle is a challenge due to the lack of high‐resolution geodetic observations of duration comparable to that of characteristic earthquake recurrence intervals (250–10,000 years). Here we approach this problem by comparing long‐term geologic slip rates with geodetically derived fault slip rates by sampling only a short fraction (0.001%–0.1%) of a complete earthquake cycle along 15 continental strike‐slip faults. Geodetic observations provide snapshots of surface deformation from different times through the earthquake cycle. The timing of the last earthquake on many of these faults is poorly known, and may vary greatly from fault to fault. Assuming that the underlying mechanics of the seismic cycle are similar for all faults, geodetic observations from different faults may be interpreted as samples over a significantly larger fraction of the earthquake cycle than could be obtained from the geodetic record along any one fault alone. As an ensemble, we find that geologically and geodetically inferred slip rates agree well with a linear relation of 0.94±0.09. To simultaneously explain both the ensemble agreement between geologic and geodetic slip‐rate estimates with observations of rapid postseismic deformation, we consider the predictions from simple two‐layer earthquake‐cycle models with both Maxwell and Burgers viscoelastic rheologies. We find that a two‐layer Burgers model, with two relaxation timescales, is consistent with observations of deformation throughout the earthquake cycle, whereas the widely used two‐layer Maxwell model with a single relaxation timescale, is not, suggesting that the earthquake cycle is effectively characterized by a largely stress‐recoverable rapid postseismic stage and a much more slowly varying interseismic stage.Earth and Planetary Science

Geodetic Constraints on San Francisco Bay Area Fault Slip Rates and Potential Seismogenic Asperities on the Partially Creeping Hayward Fault

The Hayward fault in the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) is sometimes considered unusual among continental faults for exhibiting significant aseismic creep during the interseismic phase of the seismic cycle while also generating sufficient elastic strain to produce major earthquakes. Imaging the spatial variation in interseismic fault creep on the Hayward fault is complicated because of the interseismic strain accumulation associated with nearby faults in the SFBA, where the relative motion between the Pacific plate and the Sierra block is partitioned across closely spaced subparallel faults. To estimate spatially variable creep on the Hayward fault, we interpret geodetic observations with a three-dimensional kinematically consistent block model of the SFBA fault system. Resolution tests reveal that creep rate variations with a length scale of <15 km are poorly resolved below 7 km depth. In addition, creep at depth may be sensitive to assumptions about the kinematic consistency of fault slip rate models. Differential microplate motions result in a slip rate of 6.7 ± 0.8 mm/yr on the Hayward fault, and we image along-strike variations in slip deficit rate at ∼15 km length scales shallower than 7 km depth. Similar to previous studies, we identify a strongly coupled asperity with a slip deficit rate of up to 4 mm/yr on the central Hayward fault that is spatially correlated with the mapped surface trace of the 1868 $M_W = 6.9–7.0$ Hayward earthquake and adjacent to gabbroic fault surfaces.Earth and Planetary Science