EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF PASTORAL MIGRATION DECISIONS: GABRA HERDERS IN NORTHERN KENYA

This study investigates empirical evidence on migration decisions made by 40 nomadic herders in Northern Kenya. For 1993 to present, base camp to town distance is regressed on food availability, herd, household and rainfall characteristics. Further analysis of information on herders' most recent migrations generates implicit prices for site characteristics.Livestock Production/Industries,

Milk Money and Intra-Household Bargaining: Evidence on Pastoral Migration and Milk Sales from Northern Kenya

In this study, we investigate the impact of new market opportunities on Gabra nomadic pastoralists living in an arid climate in northern Kenya. The Gabra have recently experienced growth of milk marketing opportunities, and this change has caused a renegotiation of intrahousehold arrangements that affect households' location and migration decisions. We model three different outcomes of the household bargaining processes and test them empirically. Our results are consistent with a contested model of the household in which husbands locate households farther from towns in order to limit milk marketing opportunities.Livestock Production/Industries,

ARE HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTION DECISIONS COOPERATIVE? EVIDENCE ON MIGRATION AND MILK SALES FROM NORTHERN KENYA

Replaced with revised version of paper 08/29/02.Consumer/Household Economics,

Are Household Production Decisions Cooperative? Evidence on Pastoral Migration and Milk Sales from Northern Kenya

Market-based development efforts frequently create opportunities to generate income from goods previously produced and consumed within the household. Production within the household is often characterized by a gender and age division of labor. Market development efforts to improve well being may lead to unanticipated outcomes if household production decisions are non-cooperative. We develop and test models of household decision-making to investigate intra-household decision making in a nomadic pastoral setting from Kenya. Our results suggest that household decisions are contested, with husbands using migration decisions to resist wives' ability to market milk.Intrahousehold decision-making, household production, Kenya

SOCIAL IDENTITY AND MANIPULATIVE INTERHOUSEHOLD TRANSFERS AMONG EAST AFRICAN PASTORALISTS

We model interhousehold transfers between nomadic livestock herders as the state-dependent consequence of individuals' strategic interdependence resulting from the existence of multiple, opposing externalities. A public good security externality among individuals sharing a social (e.g., ethnic) identity in a potentially hostile environment creates incentives to band together. Self-interested interhousehold wealth transfers from wealthier herders to poorer ones may emerge endogenously within a limited wealth space as a means to motivate accompanying migration by the recipient. The distributional reach and size of the transfer are limited, however, by a resource appropriation externality related to the use of common property grazing lands. When this effect dominates, it can induce distributionally regressive transfers from ex ante poor households who want to relieve grazing pressures caused by larger herds. As compared to the extant literature on transfers, our model appears more consistent with the limited available empirical evidence on heterogeneous and changing transfers patterns among east African pastoralists.Agribusiness, D, O, Q18,

Perceptions of Risk within Pastoralist Households in Northern Kenya and Southern Ethiopia

Perceptions of risk may vary within households as well as across households and communities. In this paper, we take advantage of panel survey data collected quarterly over a period of 2 ½ years to see how perceptions of risk vary across individuals over time. The surveyed households are in pastoralist communities in Northern Kenya and Southern Ethiopia and the survey period coincides with a severe drought in this region and the beginning of the recovery. We identify the structural heterogeneity of the perceptions of risk of these individuals. Because of the nature of panel data, we can also test how the perceptions of risk are affected by shocks in previous periods. In particular, we ask how an individual's risk perceptions change when shocks happen to him or herself, to other members of his or her, family, or to members of his or her community. This allows us to ask how expectations adapt based on the things that are happening to others and allows us to look at issues of social networks and learning.Risk and Uncertainty,

Leaving or Staying: Inter-Provincial Migration in Vietnam

Internal migration has several policy implications for economic growth and development for developing countries in general and for the fast growing low-income country of Vietnam in particular. Little research has been done, however, on inter-provincial migration in Vietnam. This study makes two major contributions to the migration and development literature in terms of the datasets and policy-relevant estimation approach. It is the first paper to use the annual survey data on migration published by Vietnam’s General Statistics Office. This study also adopts a functional form to accommodate the flexibility of income’s elasticity. Income, together with urban unemployment rates, are endogenously estimated with instruments that prove to be strong and valid. The inclusion of policy-relevant variables provides empirical findings that can make migration policy in Vietnam better-informed. Specifically, Vietnamese migrants are influenced primarily by moving costs, expected income differentials, disparity in the quality of public services offered by provinces, and the demographic composition at destination and source. This paper’s findings provide new insight for migration policy options, and suggest that the government adopt a holistic policy approach to maximize the benefits and minimize the costs associated with internal migration

Are Household Production Decisions Cooperative? Evidence on Pastoral Migration and Milk Sales from Northern Kenya

Market-based development efforts frequently create opportunities to generate income from goods previously produced and consumed within the household. Production within the household is often characterized by a gender and age division of labor. Market development efforts to improve well being may lead to unanticipated outcomes if household production decisions are non-cooperative. We develop and test models of household decision-making to investigate intra-household decision making in a nomadic pastoral setting from Kenya. Our results suggest that household decisions are contested, with husbands using migration decisions to resist wives\u27 ability to market milk

BAYESIAN HERDERS: ASYMMETRIC UPDATING OF RAINFALL BELIEFS IN RESPONSE TO EXTERNAL FORECASTS

Temporal climate risk weighs heavily on many of the world's poor. Recent advances in model-based climate forecasting have expanded the range, timeliness and accuracy of forecasts available to decision-makers whose welfare depends on stochastic climate outcomes. There has consequently been considerable recent investment in improved climate forecasting for the developing world. Yet, in cultures that have long used indigenous climate forecasting methods, forecasts generated and disseminated by outsiders using unfamiliar methods may not readily gain the acceptance necessary to induce behavioral change. The value of model-based climate forecasts depends critically on the premise that forecast recipients actually use external forecast information to update their rainfall expectations. We test this premise using unique survey data from pastoralists and agropastoralists in southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya, specifying and estimating a model of herders updating seasonal rainfall beliefs. We find that those who receive and believe model-based seasonal climate forecasts indeed update their priors in the direction of the forecast received, assimilating optimistic forecasts more readily than pessimistic forecasts.Agribusiness, O1, D1, Q12,