Interactions within the Office Market Cycle in Great Britain

This article adopts an unrestricted vector autoregressive framework methodology to examine the cyclical activity of office property development in Great Britain. The empirical analysis provides supporting evidence for the significant influence of office rents on the rate of new office construction. Service sector output has a small impact on office development, whereas the results do not establish a relationship with employment and interest rates. The significance of rents is attributed to the tenure characteristics of the market and the important role of developers and property investors in initiating office projects in Great Britain. A period of up to three years appears to be the optimum period between the time that rental signals are generated and the time that buildings are put in place, as a response to those signals.

Testing for bubbles in indirect property price cycles

Speculative bubbles are generated when investors include the expectation of the future price in their information set. Under these conditions, the actual market price of the security, that is set according to demand and supply, will be a function of the future price and vice versa. In the presence of speculative bubbles, positive expected bubble returns will lead to increased demand and will thus force prices to diverge from their fundamental value. This paper investigates whether the prices of UK equity-traded property stocks over the past 15 years contain evidence of a speculative bubble. The analysis draws upon the methodologies adopted in various studies examining price bubbles in the general stock market. Fundamental values are generated using two models: the dividend discount and the Gordon growth. Variance bounds tests are then applied to test for bubbles in the UK property asset prices. Finally, cointegration analysis is conducted to provide further evidence on the presence of bubbles. Evidence of the existence of bubbles is found, although these appear to be transitory and concentrated in the mid-to-late 1990s

Outlook and appraisal [March 1993]

The end of the recession is at hand, but the size and timing of proposed tax increases may limit the speed of recovery and so reduce further the prospects for the three million unemployed in Britain

Outlook and appraisal [June 1993]

First quarter GDP figures signal the end of the recession. Recent falls in unemployment and rising house prices should stimulate greater expenditure from consumers now that the threat of redundancy has receded

The Scottish economy [March 1993]

Our previous forecast of a small fall in the seasonally adjusted output index for Scottish production industries (Divisions 1 to 4 of the 1980 SIC) for the third quarter last year was not borne out by the actual outcome. This is mainly due to a large under-reporting of the index for the second quarter last year in the previous official data release. It is now clear that the prolonged recession, and particularly the substantial fall in output in the second quarter contributed significantly to the deterioration of business confidence as reported in the previous Scottish Chambers' business surveys (which should also affect the early official recording of the second quarter's output). This under-reporting leads our model to predict a further fall, although small, in the following quarter. However, the actual outcome of industrial output, total volume of sales and new orders in the third quarter turned out to be not as bad as we had been expecting (see also the following business survey section). Nevertheless, as data reveal in this paper, we are expecting a large fall in production for 1992 as a whole. There will be a further marked reduction in Scottish industrial output

Special article : Quarterly Economic Commentary: Volume 10-18

The Fraser ofAllander Institute has, since its inception, sought to promote debate and research into the Scottish economy. One way in which we have done this is to publish, every quarter, a collection of views and results from those who conduct research in this area. In the current volume J McGilvray presents a review of the responses to the government's consultation paper on water and sewerage in Scotland. In previous volumes, a large number of articles appeared and addressed a wide variety of subjects. Articles which appeared in volumes 10 - 18 are documented on the following pages and those wishing to obtain backcopies can do so, through the Institute, by contacting the editor. Articles appear by volume & number and are labelled according to whether they were a Feature Article (FA), Briefing Paper (BP), Economic Perspective (EP) or a Special Article (SA

An Integrated Grid Environment for Component Applications

Computational grids present many obstacles to their effective exploitation by non-trivial applications. We present a grid middleware, implemented using Java and Jini, that eliminates these obstacles through the intelligent use of meta-data relating to the structure, behaviour and performance of an application. We demonstrate how different problem sizes and selection criteria (minimum execution time or minimum cost) utilise different implementations for the optimal solution of a set of linear equations

Optimisation of Component-based Applications within a Grid Environment

Effective exploitation of computational grids can only be achieved when applications are fully integrated with the grid middleware and the underlying computational resources. Fundamental to this exploitation is information. Information about the structure and behaviour of the application, the capability of the computational and networking resources, and the availability and access to these resources by an individual, a group or an organisation. This paper describes an integrated grid environment that is open, extensible and platform independent. We match a high-level application specification, defined as a network of components, to an optimal combination of the currently available component implementations within our grid environment. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this architecture through high-level specification and solution of a set of linear equations by automatic and optimal resource and implementation selection