Flow of conjunctural information and forecast of euro area economic activity

Euro area GDP and components are nowcast and forecast one quarter ahead. Based on a dataset of 163 series comprising the relevant monthly indicators, simple bridge equations with one explanatory variable are estimated for each. The individual forecasts generated by each equation are then pooled, using six weighting schemes including Bayesian ones. To take into consideration the release calendar of each indicator, six forecasts are compiled independently during the quarter, each based on different information sets: different indicators, different individual equations and finally different weights to aggregate information. The information content of the various blocks of information at different points in time for each GDP component is then discussed. It appears that taking into account the information flow results in significant changes in the weight allocated to each block of information, especially when the first month of hard data becomes available. This conclusion, reached for all the components and most of the weighting scheme, supports and extends the findings of Giannone, Reichlin and Small (2006) and Banbura and Rünstler (2007). An out-of-sample forecast comparison exercise is also carried out for each component and GDP directly. The forecast performance is found to vary widely across components. Two weighting schemes are found to outperform the equal weighting scheme in almost all cases. One-quarter ahead, the direct forecast of GDP is found to outperform the bottom-up approach. However, the nowcast resulting in the lowest forecast errors is derived from the bottom-up approach. JEL Classification: C22, C53, E17forecast pooling, GDP components, Large dataset, weighting scheme

Widening access to grammar schools: the educational impact in Northern Ireland.

What are the overall effects on educational attainment of widening access to the more academic track? Research by Eric Maurin and Sandra McNally investigates using the 'natural experiment' of the grammar school system in Northern Ireland, which has survived long after its dismantlement in England.

Educational Effects of Widening Access to the Academic Track: A Natural Experiment

It is difficult to know whether widening access to schools which provide a more academically oriented general education makes a difference to average educational achievement. We make use of reforms affecting admission to the 'high ability' track in Northern Ireland, but not England. The comparison of educational outcomes between Northern Ireland and England before and after the reform identifies the net effect of expanding the academic track to accommodate more students. This is composed of the direct effect of the more academic track on individual performance and the indirect effect arising on account of the change in peer group composition. Our paper is relevant to debate on the consequences of ability tracking and of expanding access to the academic track.education, tracking, selection

Sentence Reductions and Recidivism: Lessons from the Bastille Day Quasi Experiment

This paper exploits the collective pardon granted to individuals incarcerated in French prisons on the 14th of July, 1996 (Bastille Day) to identify the effect of collective sentence reductions on recidivism. The collective pardon generated a very significant discontinuity in the relationship between the number of weeks of sentence reduction granted to inmates and their prospective date of release. We show that the same discontinuity exists in the relationship between recidivism probability five years after the release and prospective date of release. Overall, the Bastille Day quasi experiment suggests that collective sentence reductions increase recidivism and do not represent a cost-effective way to reduce incarceration rates or prisons' overcrowding.crime, prison, deterrence effect, recidivism

A sectoral analysis of Barbados’ GDP business cycle

This paper has two main objectives. Firstly, to establish and characterise a reference cycle (based on real output) for Barbados over the quarterly period 1974-2003 using the Bry and Boschan algorithm. Secondly, to link this aggregate output cycle to the cycles of the individual sectors that comprises real output. The overriding conclusions are that the cycles of tourism and wholesale and retail closely resembles that of the aggregate business cycle, while the non-sugar agriculture and fishing cycle is acyclical.Barbados; Gross Domestic Product, Business Cycle