A Simplified, Low-Cost Method for Polarized Light Microscopy

Malaria pigment is an intracellular inclusion body that appears in blood and tissue specimens on microscopic examination and can help in establishing the diagnosis of malaria. In simple light microscopy, it can be difficult to discern from cellular background and artifacts. It has long been known that if polarized light microscopy is used, malaria pigment can be much easier to distinguish. However, this technique is rarely used because of the need for a relatively costly polarization microscope. We describe a simple and economical technique to convert any standard light microscope suitable for examination of malaria films into a polarization microscope

Artemisinin Antimalarials: Preserving the “Magic Bullet”

The artemisinins are the most effective antimalarial drugs known. They possess a remarkably wide therapeutic index. These agents have been used in traditional Chinese herbal medicine for more than 2,000 years but were not subjected to scientific scrutiny until the 1970s. The first formal clinical trials of the artemisinins, and the development of methods for their industrial scale production, followed rapidly. A decade later, Chinese scientists shared their findings with the rest of the world; since then, a significant body of international trial evidence has confirmed these drugs to be far superior to any available alternatives. In particular, they have the ability to rapidly kill a broad range of asexual parasite stages at safe concentrations that are consistently achievable via standard dosing regimens. As their half-life is very short, there was also thought to be a low risk of resistance. These discoveries coincided with the appearance and spread of resistance to all the other major classes of antimalarials. As a result, the artemisinins now form an essential element of recommended first-line antimalarial treatment regimens worldwide. To minimize the risk of artemisinin resistance, they are recommended to be used to treat uncomplicated malaria in combination with other antimalarials as artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs). Their rollout has resulted in documented reductions in malaria prevalence in a number of African and Asian countries. Unfortunately, there are already worrisome early signs of artemisinin resistance appearing in western Cambodia. If this resistance were to spread, it would be disastrous for malaria control efforts worldwide. The enormous challenge for the international community is how to avert this catastrophe and preserve the effectiveness of this antimalarial “magic bullet”. Drug Dev Res 71: 12–19, 2010. © 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc

Preliminary estimation of temporal and spatiotemporal dynamic measures of COVID-19 transmission in Thailand

Background As a new emerging infectious disease pandemic, there is an urgent need to understand the dynamics of COVID-19 in each country to inform planning of emergency measures to contain its spread. It is essential that appropriate disease control activities are planned and implemented in a timely manner. Thailand was one of the first countries outside China to be affected with subsequent importation and domestic spread in most provinces in the country. Method A key ingredient to guide planning and implementation of public health measures is a metric of transmissibility which represents the infectiousness of a disease. Ongoing policies can utilize this information to plan appropriately with updated estimates of disease transmissibility. Therefore we present descriptive analyses and preliminary statistical estimation of reproduction numbers over time and space to facilitate disease control activities in Thailand. ResultsThe estimated basic reproduction number for COVID-19 during the study ranged from 2.23–5.90, with a mean of 3.75. We also tracked disease dynamics over time using temporal and spatiotemporal reproduction numbers. The results suggest that the outbreak was under control since the middle of April. After the boxing stadium and entertainment venues, the numbers of new cases had increased and spread across the country. Discussion Although various scenarios about assumptions were explored in this study, the real situation was difficult to determine given the limited data. More thorough mathematical modelling would be helpful to improve the estimation of transmissibility metrics for emergency preparedness as more epidemiological and clinical information about this new infection becomes available. However, the results can be used to guide interventions directly and to help parameterize models to predict the impact of these interventions

Evaluation and comparison of spatial cluster detection methods for improved decision making of disease surveillance:a case study of national dengue surveillance in Thailand

BACKGROUND: Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease that causes over 300 million infections worldwide each year with no specific treatment available. Effective surveillance systems are needed for outbreak detection and resource allocation. Spatial cluster detection methods are commonly used, but no general guidance exists on the most appropriate method for dengue surveillance. Therefore, a comprehensive study is needed to assess different methods and provide guidance for dengue surveillance programs.METHODS: To evaluate the effectiveness of different cluster detection methods for dengue surveillance, we selected and assessed commonly used methods: Getis Ord [Formula: see text], Local Moran, SaTScan, and Bayesian modeling. We conducted a simulation study to compare their performance in detecting clusters, and applied all methods to a case study of dengue surveillance in Thailand in 2019 to further evaluate their practical utility.RESULTS: In the simulation study, Getis Ord [Formula: see text] and Local Moran had similar performance, with most misdetections occurring at cluster boundaries and isolated hotspots. SaTScan showed better precision but was less effective at detecting inner outliers, although it performed well on large outbreaks. Bayesian convolution modeling had the highest overall precision in the simulation study. In the dengue case study in Thailand, Getis Ord [Formula: see text] and Local Moran missed most disease clusters, while SaTScan was mostly able to detect a large cluster. Bayesian disease mapping seemed to be the most effective, with adaptive detection of irregularly shaped disease anomalies.CONCLUSIONS: Bayesian modeling showed to be the most effective method, demonstrating the best accuracy in adaptively identifying irregularly shaped disease anomalies. In contrast, SaTScan excelled in detecting large outbreaks and regular forms. This study provides empirical evidence for the selection of appropriate tools for dengue surveillance in Thailand, with potential applicability to other disease control programs in similar settings.</p

Infectivity of Chronic Malaria Infections and Its Consequences for Control and Elimination

Assessing the importance of targeting the chronic Plasmodium falciparum malaria reservoir is pivotal as the world moves toward malaria eradication. Through the lens of a mathematical model, we show how, for a given malaria prevalence, the relative infectivity of chronic individuals determines what intervention tools are predicted be the most effective. Crucially, in a large part of the parameter space where elimination is theoretically possible, it can be achieved solely through improved case management. However, there are a significant number of settings where malaria elimination requires not only good vector control but also a mass drug administration campaign. Quantifying the relative infectiousness of chronic malaria across a range of epidemiological settings would provide essential information for the design of effective malaria elimination strategies. Given the difficulties obtaining this information, we also provide a set of epidemiological metrics that can be used to guide policy in the absence of such data

Analysing human population movement data for malaria control and elimination

Background: Human population movement poses a major obstacle to malaria control and elimination. With recent technological advances, a wide variety of data sources and analytical methods have been used to quantify human population movement (HPM) relevant to control and elimination of malaria. Methods: The relevant literature and selected studies that had policy implications that could help to design or target malaria control and elimination interventions were reviewed. These studies were categorized according to spatiotemporal scales of human mobility and the main method of analysis. Results: Evidence gaps exist for tracking routine cross-border HPM and HPM at a regional scale. Few studies accounted for seasonality. Out of twenty included studies, two studies which tracked daily neighbourhood HPM used descriptive analyses as the main method, while the remaining studies used statistical analyses or mathematical modelling. Conclusion: Although studies quantified varying types of human population movement covering different spatial and temporal scales, methodological gaps remain that warrant further studies related to malaria control and elimination

Two-step spatiotemporal anomaly detection corrected for lag reporting time with application to real-time dengue surveillance in Thailand

Background: Dengue infection ranges from asymptomatic to severe and life-threatening, with no specific treatment available. Vector control is crucial for interrupting its transmission cycle. Accurate estimation of outbreak timing and location is essential for efficient resource allocation. Timely and reliable notification systems are necessary to monitor dengue incidence, including spatial and temporal distributions, to detect outbreaks promptly and implement effective control measures. Methods: We proposed an integrated two-step methodology for real-time spatiotemporal cluster detection, accounting for reporting delays. In the first step, we employed space-time nowcasting modeling to compensate for lags in the reporting system. Subsequently, anomaly detection methods were applied to assess adverse risks. To illustrate the effectiveness of these detection methods, we conducted a case study using weekly dengue surveillance data from Thailand. Results: The developed methodology demonstrated robust surveillance effectiveness. By combining space-time nowcasting modeling and anomaly detection, we achieved enhanced detection capabilities, accounting for reporting delays and identifying clusters of elevated risk in real-time. The case study in Thailand showcased the practical application of our methodology, enabling timely initiation of disease control activities. Conclusion: Our integrated two-step methodology provides a valuable approach for real-time spatiotemporal cluster detection in dengue surveillance. By addressing reporting delays and incorporating anomaly detection, it complements existing surveillance systems and forecasting efforts. Implementing this methodology can facilitate the timely initiation of disease control activities, contributing to more effective prevention and control strategies for dengue in Thailand and potentially other regions facing similar challenges

Bayesian spatio-temporal distributed lag modeling for delayed climatic effects on sparse malaria incidence data

Background In many areas of the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), malaria endemic regions have shrunk to patches of predominantly low-transmission. With a regional goal of elimination by 2030, it is important to use appropriate methods to analyze and predict trends in incidence in these remaining transmission foci to inform planning efforts. Climatic variables have been associated with malaria incidence to varying degrees across the globe but the relationship is less clear in the GMS and standard methodologies may not be appropriate to account for the lag between climate and incidence and for locations with low numbers of cases. Methods In this study, a methodology was developed to estimate the spatio-temporal lag effect of climatic factors on malaria incidence in Thailand within a Bayesian framework. A simulation was conducted based on ground truth of lagged effect curves representing the delayed relation with sparse malaria cases as seen in our study population. A case study to estimate the delayed effect of environmental variables was used with malaria incidence at a fine geographic scale of sub-districts in a western province of Thailand. Results From the simulation study, the model assumptions which accommodated both delayed effects and excessive zeros appeared to have the best overall performance across evaluation metrics and scenarios. The case study demonstrated lagged climatic effect estimation of the proposed modeling with real data. The models appeared to be useful to estimate the shape of association with malaria incidence. Conclusions A new method to estimate the spatiotemporal effect of climate on malaria trends in low transmission settings is presented. The developed methodology has potential to improve understanding and estimation of past and future trends in malaria incidence. With further development, this could assist policy makers with decisions on how to more effectively distribute resources and plan strategies for malaria elimination