44,927 research outputs found
Adaptive Probability Theory: Human Biases as an Adaptation
Humans make mistakes in our decision-making and probability judgments. While the heuristics used for decision-making have been explained as adaptations that are both efficient and fast, the reasons why people deal with probabilities using the reported biases have not been clear. We will see that some of these biases can be understood as heuristics developed to explain a complex world when little information is available. That is, they approximate Bayesian inferences for situations more complex than the ones in laboratory experiments and in this sense might have appeared as an adaptation to those situations. When ideas as uncertainty and limited sample sizes are included in the problem, the correct probabilities are changed to values close to the observed behavior. These ideas will be used to explain the observed weight functions, the violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance reported in the literature
Optimal Remote State Estimation for Self-Propelled Particle Models
We investigate the design of a remote state estimation system for a
self-propelled particle (SPP). Our framework consists of a sensing unit that
accesses the full state of the SPP and an estimator that is remotely located
from the sensing unit. The sensing unit must pay a cost when it chooses to
transmit information on the state of the SPP to the estimator; and the
estimator computes the best estimate of the state of the SPP based on received
information. In this paper, we provide methods to design transmission policies
and estimation rules for the sensing unit and estimator, respectively, that are
optimal for a given cost functional that combines state estimation distortion
and communication costs. We consider two notions of optimality: joint
optimality and person-by-person optimality. Our main results show the existence
of a jointly optimal solution and describe an iterative procedure to find a
person-by-person optimal solution. In addition, we explain how the remote
estimation scheme can be applied to tracking of animal movements over a costly
communication link. We also provide experimental results to show the
effectiveness of the scheme.Comment: a part of the article was submitted to IEEE Conference on Decision
and Control 201
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