The quantitative approach to business cycle in « X-Crise » group in the 1930's

To construct models and to apply quantitative techniques in order to explain the cyclical movements of the economy is one of the main aims of “X-Crise” group (nickname of “Centre Polytechnicien d'Etudes Economiques”) at the “Ecole Polytechnique” in Paris. Indeed, french polytechniciens' engineers hope that mathematical economics, and especially empirically based modelization, will be helpful first to build a true economic science, and second, to find solutions to the 1930's crisis. These hopes are developed in the methodological debate that Polytechniciens began even before the creation of the association X-Crise. They explain in particular their rejection of "pure” economics and their defence of an approach which mixes economic concepts, statistical facts and mathematical model – such as econometrics. Overall, these hopes are expressed through models constructed by X-Crise members, such as Polytechniciens like François Moch and Maurice Potron or non-polytechniciens like brothers Georges and Edouard Guillaume. Attempts were done to include business cycle in their models. But, finally, they failed to confront them to empirical data.French Engineers - Business Cycles - history of econometrics

French Engineers and the Machinery of Society: X-Crise and the Development of the first Macroeconomic Models in the Nineteen Thirties

The purpose of this article is to highlight the originality of X-Crise, an Ecole Polytechnique association formed in nineteen thirties' France. Firstly il analyses the factors leading the French engineers to look collectively, for the first time of their history, at the big politicoeconomic problems of their epoch. Two factors seem particularly relevant on this matter : their epistemology and value system on one hand, and their perception of the theoretical and political impotence at that time on the other hand.Secondly this paper presents the main original theoretical elements that arose from the group's deliberations. Among them, it exposes the Guillaume brothers' macroeconomic model [1932], one of the very first macroeconomic model produced in France, and Potron's first application to economics of Perron-Frobenius's theorem (Potron [1911] and [1935]).French Engineers - Macroeconomic models - Pragmatism - Mechanics - Perron-Frobenius's theorem

Changements institutionnels et efficience de l'affrètement au voyage dans le transport fluvial de marchandises

VNF (2010)'s statistical data show a remarkable resilience of inland navigation in France during the recession. Yet at least part of the profession is in crisis: the boatmen are now likely to be close to bankruptcy. Key players in the fully liberalized (since 2000) spot market, small independent barge owners bear the brunt of lower prices resulting from a destructive competition exacerbated in times of recession. Transaction costs associated with this new institutional environment exacerbate this pro-cyclical behavior detrimental to the entire profession. With the help of transaction costs economics, the article assesses the conditions of efficiency of voyage charter in the spot market before and after the abolition of the "Tour de rôle" and lead to recommendations to improve organization and efficiency of this market segment.Les données de VNF (2010) montrent une résistance remarquable en France du transport fluvial de marchandises à la récession. Pourtant, une part au moins de la profession est en crise : les artisans bateliers sont aujourd'hui nombreux à être proches du dépôt de bilan. Principaux acteurs du marché de l'affrètement au voyage entièrement libéralisé depuis 2000, les artisans bateliers subissent de plein fouet une baisse des prix résultant d'une concurrence destructrice exacerbée en période de récession. Les coûts de transaction associés au nouvel environnement institutionnel accentuent ce comportement pro-cyclique, préjudiciable à l'ensemble de la profession. L'article s'appuie sur la théorie des coûts de transaction pour évaluer les conditions d'efficience de l'affrètement au voyage avant et après la suppression du « Tour de rôle » et débouche sur des préconisations visant à améliorer l'organisation et l'efficacité de ce segment de marché

Transaction costs of inland river transport for urban logistics in France

Experimentations and innovations flourish in France that involve a container barge transport (CBT) as the main leg for urban distribution of goods. Based on the study of existing chains, the paper shows how coordination issues are actually managed by CBT stakeholders. With the help of Transaction Costs Economics, the paper shows that coordination and pooling issues lead CBT stakeholders to adopt hierarchical or hybrid governance structures to build regular inland shipping line. Based on this result, several examples are used to identify the economic and organizational conditions of river logistics in urban area

French Engineers and the Machinery of Society: X-Crise and the Development of the first Macroeconomic Models in the Nineteen Thirties

The purpose of this article is to highlight the originality of X-Crise, an Ecole Polytechnique association formed in nineteen thirties' France. Firstly il analyses the factors leading the French engineers to look collectively, for the first time of their history, at the big politicoeconomic problems of their epoch. Two factors seem particularly relevant on this matter : their epistemology and value system on one hand, and their perception of the theoretical and political impotence at that time on the other hand.Secondly this paper presents the main original theoretical elements that arose from the group's deliberations. Among them, it exposes the Guillaume brothers' macroeconomic model [1932], one of the very first macroeconomic model produced in France, and Potron's first application to economics of Perron-Frobenius's theorem (Potron [1911] and [1935])

The quantitative approach to business cycle in « X-Crise » group in the 1930's

To construct models and to apply quantitative techniques in order to explain the cyclical movements of the economy is one of the main aims of “X-Crise” group (nickname of “Centre Polytechnicien d'Etudes Economiques”) at the “Ecole Polytechnique” in Paris. Indeed, french polytechniciens' engineers hope that mathematical economics, and especially empirically based modelization, will be helpful first to build a true economic science, and second, to find solutions to the 1930's crisis. These hopes are developed in the methodological debate that Polytechniciens began even before the creation of the association X-Crise. They explain in particular their rejection of "pure” economics and their defence of an approach which mixes economic concepts, statistical facts and mathematical model – such as econometrics. Overall, these hopes are expressed through models constructed by X-Crise members, such as Polytechniciens like François Moch and Maurice Potron or non-polytechniciens like brothers Georges and Edouard Guillaume. Attempts were done to include business cycle in their models. But, finally, they failed to confront them to empirical data

LES STRUCTURES DE GOUVERNANCES DE LA CHAINE TRANSACTIONNELLE DU TRANSPORT FLUVIAL DE CONTENEURS SUR LE RHONE

The modal share of container barging in French maritime ports (9% of TEU in Le Havre and 4,7% in Marseille in 2010) is significantly lower than elsewhere (32% in Rotterdam and 33% in Antwerp) (Blum, 2011). Some reports and studies explain the viscosity of container barging flows as a result of several factors, generally concentrated around the seaport community. In continuation of previous seminal works, this paper adopts a neo-institutional approach (Williamson, 1985; 1996) of container barging to understand how the factors generating this viscosity are managed in the Rhône-Saône river basin. Section 1 describes the characteristics of the transaction of container barge transport. Section 2 deals with observed governance structures (Logirhône and RSC) of this transaction chain in the Rhône-Saône river basin and shows how vertical integration helps to control it. Section 3 is devoted to the transaction' attributes (asset specificity, frequency, uncertainty) of this chain. It confirms Williamson (1996) remediableness criterion, i.e. that the observed governance structure of a given transaction is presumed efficient and aligned to its attributes. Finally, it shows that the development of container barge transport on the Rhône-Saône basin in France is not impeded by its degree of integration.La part modale du transport fluvial (9% des EVP au Havre, 4,7% à Marseille en 2010) dans les ports maritimes français est nettement inférieure à celle observée ailleurs (32% à Rotterdam et 33% à Anvers) (Blum, 2011). Plusieurs études expliquent cette viscosité des flux de transport fluvial conteneurisé en France par plusieurs facteurs généralement concentrées autour de la communauté portuaire. Dans le prolongement des travaux précédents, ce chapitre adopte une approche néo-institutionnaliste (Williamson, 1985; 1996) du transport fluvial de conteneurs pour comprendre comment ces facteurs générateurs de viscosité sont gérées sur le bassin Rhône-Saône. La section 1 du chapitre décrit les caractéristiques de la transaction de transport de conteneurs par barge sur le bassin Rhône-Saône. La section 2 traite des structures de gouvernance (essentiellement celles de Logirhône et de Greenmodal/RSC) des chaînes de transactions observables sur ce bassin. La section 3 est consacrée à l’exposé des facteurs explicatifs (spécificité des actifs, fréquence de transaction, degré d’incertitude) de ces structures de gouvernance. Elle confirme le critère de remediableness identifié par Williamson (1996), i.e. que la structure de gouvernance d'une transaction donnée est présumée efficace et alignée sur les attributs de cette dernière. Enfin, il montre que le développement du transport fluvial de conteneurs sur le bassin Rhône-Saône en France n’est pas entravé par son degré d'intégration

De X-Crise (1931-1939) à X-Sursaut (2005- ?) : L'apport des Polytechniciens à la réflexion sur le rôle de l'Etat dans la vie économique

The paper tackles with the contributions on the nature and outlines of the social State in France of two associations of polytechniciens (graduates from the French Ecole polytechnique), X-Crise (constituted in the thirties) and X-Sursaut (which is contemporary to us). The paper shows that their approach, of course marked by epochs in which it manifests itself, has a syncretic and pragmatic character. Next, the paper tries to assess the capacities of innovation of X-Sursaut in its conception of social matters.Le papier s'intéresse à l'apport de deux associations de polytechniciens, l'une – X-Crise – constituée dans les années trente et l'autre – X-Sursaut – qui nous est contemporaine, à la réflexion sur la nature et les contours de l'Etat social en France. Le papier montre que l'approche des polytechniciens, certes marquée par les époques dans lesquelles elle se manifeste, se démarque par son caractère syncrétique et pragmatique. Le papier extrapole ensuite les capacités d'innovation d'X-Sursaut en matière de conception de l'Etat social

Maritime Ports And Inland Interconnections: A Transactional Analysis Of Container Barge Transport In France

Recent research on maritime ports hinterlands points out the relevance of mass ground transport modes such as barge transport for enormous flows of containers to and from harbours, especially when a maritime port is located at the mouth of a river. Though, the modal share of container barge transport in French maritime ports (9% of TEU in Le Havre and 5% in Marseille in 2007) is significantly lower than elsewhere (32% in Rotterdam and 33% in Antwerp). Some reports and studies explain the viscosity of container barge transport flows as a result of several factors, generally concentrated around the seaport community. In continuation of previous seminal works, this paper adopts a neo-institutional approach (Williamson, 1985; 1996) of container barge transport to understand how the factors generating this viscosity are managed. Section 2 describes the characteristics of the transaction of container barge transport. Section 3 is devoted to its attributes (asset specificity, frequency, uncertainty). According to Williamson's (1996) remediableness criterion, the observed governance structure of a given transaction is presumed efficient and aligned to its attributes. Thus, Section 4 deals with observed governance structures of container barge transport chains with a focus on Le Havre, main French container seaport and shows how agents try to limit opportunism in ex-post haggling over quasi-rents or under-investments. Implementation of a new institutional environment to modify governance structures is analysed, and a comparison with currently implemented governance structures observed in Rhine is made. Finally, Section 5 suggests ways of dealing with the remaining coordination problems impeding the development of container barge transport in France

La contribution d'X-Crise à l'émergence de l'économétrie en France dans les années trente

Le rôle d'X-Crise dans la constitution de l'économétrie est surtout d'ordre institutionnel. Le Centre a en effet été davantage un lieu de résonance qu'un lieu de recherche. En tant que tel, un certain nombre de dissonances se sont produites dans sa conception de l'économétrie. Cette dernière s'apparente à un ensemble de méthodes dont l'utilité semble évidente aux yeux des polytechniciens, mais dont le contenu l'est nettement moins. Cela tient probablement à l'absence d'une pratique de l'économétrie. En effet, "l'apprentissage par l'usage", pour reprendre l'expression d'Arrow, leur fait nettement défaut, même pour les plus féroces partisans de l'économétrie. A l'exception de Divisia, aucun des membres du C. P. E. E. ne s'est confronté à la pratique de l'économétrie. Ce rapport distancié à l'économétrie témoigne du rôle effectivement joué par les polytechniciens. En apportant leur soutien à cette discipline lors de sa phase d'émergence, ils ont contribué à l'implantation institutionnelle en France et, dans une moindre mesure, à l'étranger, de l'économétrie.X-Crise, Histoire de l'Econométrie