Credit risk management of property investments through multi-criteria indicators

The economic crisis of 2008 has highlighted the ineffectiveness of the banks in their disbursement of mortgages which caused the spread of Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) with underlying real estate. With the methods stated by the Basel III agreements, aimed at improving the capital requirements of banks and determining an adequate regulatory capital, the banks without the skills required have difficulties in applying the rigid weighting coefficients structures. The aim of the work is to identify a synthetic risk index through the participatory process, in order to support the restructuring debt operations to benefit smaller banks and small and medium-sized enterprises (SME), by analyzing the real estate credit risk. The proposed synthetic risk index aims at overcoming the complexity of Basel III methodologies through the implementation of three different multi-criteria techniques. In particular, the integration of objective financial variables with subjective expert judgments into a participatory process is not that common in the reference literature and brings its benefits for reaching more approved and shared results in the debt restructuring operations procedure. Moreover, the main findings derived by the application to a real case study have demonstrated how important it is for the credit manager to have an adequate synthetic index that could lead to the avoidance of risky scenarios where several modalities to repair the credit debt occur

UN MODELLO DI SUPPORTO ALLE DECISIONI PER LA RICONVERSIONE FUNZIONALE DI IMMOBILI PUBBLICI DISMESSI

In the preliminary stages of urban investments, the Public Administration (PA) has often to deal with complex decisional problems characterized by many variables and conflicting objectives. In these phases, the evaluation is a useful tool that, through the application of multi-criteria analysis, can support the PA in the transformation of a problem characterized by high uncertainty and mostly qualitative judgments of value, in a logical-mathematical model to guide the decisions. Defined the objective of the investment, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method is particularly useful in the comparison and in the choice of projectual alternatives described through a variety of independent criteria and often in conflict with each other. A series of pairwise comparisons - first between the various criteria and then between the various alternatives on the basis of each criterion - allows to sort the solutions by returning the degree of pursuit of the initial objective. The application of AHP to the case study of an Italian historical building damaged by the earthquake, highlights the ease of use of AHP, its robustness, confirmed by the consistency analysis, and the transparency of the procedure, that is devoid of "black boxes".  DOI: http://dx.medra.org/10.19254/LaborEst.13.0

Multivariate Dynamic Analysis and Forecasting Models of Future Property Bubbles: Empirical Applications to the Housing Markets of Spanish Metropolitan Cities

The cogency of evaluation models able to predict future trends and to monitor the consequences of scenarios different from those initially expected has been determining a growing scientific interest for the development of financial sustainability methods. With reference to quarterly time series collected for the metropolitan area of five Spanish cities, in this research an innovative methodology has been implemented, in order to make explicit, for each case study, the main functional relationships between the housing prices and the socio-economic factors. The models obtained are characterized by both high statistical performance and compliance with the expected market phenomena, highlighting the decisive role in the housing price formation of the factors that indirectly represent the population’s income capacity (market rents, unemployment level, mortgages). Then, an empirical procedure for the construction of the future property value trends has been developed. The results point out the forecasting and monitoring potentialities of the methodology used, as a fundamental decision support tool in the urban planning policies of the local administrations, interested in anticipating and checking future housing bubbles through appropriate economic policies, and for private operators, in the phases of selection of the most attractive territorial areas for new property realizations

UN'INTERPRETAZIONE INNOVATIVA DEI CRITERI DI VALUTAZIONE DELLA DCFA NEL PARTENARIATO PUBBLICO-PRIVATO PER LA VALORIZZAZIONE DEL PATRIMONIO IMMOBILIARE PUBBLICO

The current global economic situation, characterized by a scarce availability of public monetary resources, makes it necessary the involvement of the private entrepreneurs in the urban enhancement initiatives. In this framework, the present paper aimed at providing an effective support for assessing the financial conveniences of the subjects involved (Public Administration and private investors). Through an original interpretation of the classical criteria of the Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (DCFA), a methodology that defines the combinations of the financial performance indicators is proposed. The outputs of the developed application highlight the utility of the method, that constitutes a rapid and easily interpretable tool in the negotiation phases of the urban regeneration initiatives. DOI: http://dx.medra.org/10.19254/LaborEst.16.0

UN'INTERPRETAZIONE INNOVATIVA DEI CRITERI DI VALUTAZIONE DELLA DCFA NEL PARTENARIATO PUBBLICO-PRIVATO PER LA VALORIZZAZIONE DEL PATRIMONIO IMMOBILIARE PUBBLICO

The current global economic situation, characterized by a scarce availability of public monetary resources, makes it necessary the involvement of the private entrepreneurs in the urban enhancement initiatives. In this framework, the present paper aimed at providing an effective support for assessing the financial conveniences of the subjects involved (Public Administration and private investors). Through an original interpretation of the classical criteria of the Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (DCFA), a methodology that defines the combinations of the financial performance indicators is proposed. The outputs of the developed application highlight the utility of the method, that constitutes a rapid and easily interpretable tool in the negotiation phases of the urban regeneration initiatives. DOI: http://dx.medra.org/10.19254/LaborEst.16.0

UN'INTERPRETAZIONE INNOVATIVA DEI CRITERI DI VALUTAZIONE DELLA DCFA NEL PARTENARIATO PUBBLICO-PRIVATO PER LA VALORIZZAZIONE DEL PATRIMONIO IMMOBILIARE PUBBLICO

The current global economic situation, characterized by a scarce availability of public monetary resources, makes it necessary the involvement of the private entrepreneurs in the urban enhancement initiatives. In this framework, the present paper aimed at providing an effective support for assessing the financial conveniences of the subjects involved (Public Administration and private investors). Through an original interpretation of the classical criteria of the Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (DCFA), a methodology that defines the combinations of the financial performance indicators is proposed. The outputs of the developed application highlight the utility of the method, that constitutes a rapid and easily interpretable tool in the negotiation phases of the urban regeneration initiatives

Energy production through roof-top wind turbines A GIS-based decision support model for planning investments in the city of Bari (Italy)

In this paper the financial feasibility in the installation of roof-top wind turbines in the territory of the city of Bari (Italy) has been analyzed. The elaborations carried out have allowed to define “wind” maps, in terms of annual mean wind speed and annual energy production, and evaluative maps, in terms of total profit for the investor and land lease values of the flat roofs of existing buildings. The thematic maps generated constitute a primary support for the operators interested in taking advantage of European resources and/or the incentives offered by energy regulations for the installation of roof-top wind turbines and identifying the areas characterized by higher yields. Furthermore, the model obtained provides investors and flat roofs’ owners motivated and contextualized economic values, referred to the local wind power capacities of the areas in which the installation of roof-top wind turbines is financially convenient

Land Use, Economic Welfare and Property Values: An Analysis of the Interdependencies of the Real-Estate Market with Zonal and Socio-Economic Variables in the Municipalities of Apulia Region (Italy)

In the paper an analysis of functional correlations of property prices with the main locational and socio-economic variables, which generally contribute to define the market value of properties, has been developed. Locational characteristics are represented by the surfaces of soil used for the main fucntions, borrowing the logic of the system of CORINE Land Cover classification. The analysis has been contextualized to the 258 municipalities of the Apulia region (Southern Italy). The methodology constitutes a valuable reference for the definition of models aimed at supporting public planning decisions and private investment choices