Sticky Prices and Moderate Inflation

Recent evidence shows that there is great heterogeneity in the price setting frequency across sectors, and that those changing prices frequently do so even under low inflation. What happens to price setting strategies of sticky price goods under moderate inflation? We built a dataset of monthly newspaper and magazine prices for Colombia, for the period 1960-2005, an exceptional example of prolonged moderate inflation. Within this macroeconomic scenario, and the novel database, we study the frequency of price adjustment, the relative importance of time- and state-dependent theories, and their evolution as inflation declined from moderate rates to single digits.Sticky Prices, Moerate Inflation, Disinflation

DISINFLATING FROM MODERATE INFLATION

This paper studies the behavior of several macroeconomic variables during disinflationary episodes in Latin-America and the Caribbean (LAC). In particular, it focuses on disinflations from low and moderate peaks for the period 1973-2001. The methodology used for studying the average behavior of macroeconomic variables across disinflations overcomes the traditional problem of scarce long time series (of high frequency data) that has hindered the empirical research of monetary shocks in many LAC countries. Some of the important findings are as follows: (i) while GDP growth slowed down during the disinflations of the 70s and 80s, there is no evidence of this for the 90s; (ii) the trade balance significantly deteriorated during the disinflations; (iii) the nominal devaluation rate slowed down during the episodes; and (iv) the real exchange rate appreciated during the episodes.Inflation Growth Disinflation Trade Balance Exchange Rate

Asymmetric Price Adjustments Under Ever-Increasing Costs. Evidence from the Retail Gasoline Market in Colombia

There is abundant empirical evidence showing that asymmetric price adjustments exist in a wide variety of markets. Prices tend to grow faster when costs rise relative to the rate at which prices drop when costs fall. The objective of this paper is to empirically test whether asymmetric price adjustments exist in a scenario where costs are increasing every period.The Colombian retail gasoline market offers an excellent case study due to a specific regulation, something discussed further in this paper. Our results suggest that when costs rise above the reference price -a government suggested retail price- retail prices tend to rise less relative to when costs grow below the reference price. Thus, asymmetry does exist.Asymmetric price adjustments, Gasoline retail markets, Search, Reference Prices.

On the Endogeneity of Inflation Targeting: Preferences Over Inflation

Over the last quarter of a century, inflation targeting has become a popular monetary regime. Nevertheless, empirical evaluations of IT have shown contradictory results. Part of the reason is that IT in and of itself constitutes an endogenous decision and thus needs to be properly instrumented. In this paper, we show that preferences over inflation constitute a crucial determinant of IT: countries exhibiting greater inflation aversion are more likely to adopt IT.Inflation targeting, Monetary Policy, Monetary Regimes

La política monetaria y la Corte Constitucional: el caso del salario mínimo

In 1999 the Colombian Constitutional Court ruled that annual minimum wage increases should not be lower than the inflation of the previous year. This article explores the impact of this decision on the effectiveness of monetary policy, and shows that the obligation to adjust the salary to past inflation leads monetary policy to have more effect on real activity and generates more persistent inflation.monetary policy, Constitutional Court, minimum salary, inflation

POLÍTICA MONETARIA Y LA CORTE CONSTITUCIONAL: EL CASO DEL SALARIO MÍNIMO.

En 1999 la Corte Constitucional determinó que los incrementos en el salario mínimo no debían hacerse por debajo de la inflación pasada. En este artículo exploramos el impacto de esta decisión sobre la efectividad de la política monetaria. En el marco de un modelo macroeconómico sencillo, se muestra que obligar a los agentes a ajustar el salario teniendo en cuenta los precios pasados, implica que la política monetaria tiene un mayor efecto sobre la actividad real y genera una persistencia más alta de la inflación. Estos resultados se cumplen aun bajo los supuestos clásicos más tradicionales: expectativas racionales, perfecta credibilidad y ajustes sincronizados de los precios.Política monetaria

Unemployment in Latin America and the Caribbean

This study constructs a new data set on unemployment rates in Latin America and the Caribbean and then explores the determinants of unemployment. We compare different countries, finding that unemployment is influenced by the size of the rural population and that the effects of government regulations are generally weak. We also examine large, persistent increases in unemployment over time, finding that they are caused by contractions in aggregate demand. These demand contractions result from either disinflationary monetary policy or the defense of an exchange-rate peg in the face of capital flight. Our evidence supports hysteresis theories in which short-run changes in unemployment influence the natural rate.unemployment, hysteresis, monetary policy, Latin America and theCaribbean.

Unemployment in Latin America and the Caribbean

This study constructs a new data set on unemployment rates in Latin America and the Caribbean and then explores the determinants of unemployment. We compare different countries, finding that unemployment is influenced by the size of the rural population and that the effects of government regulations are generally weak. We also examine large, persistent increases in unemployment over time, finding that they are caused by contractions in aggregate demand. These demand contractions result from either disinflationary monetary policy or the defense of an exchange-rate peg in the face of capital flight. Our evidence supports hysteresis theories in which short-run changes in unemployment influence the natural rate.

Scarring Recessions and Credit Constraints: Evidence from Colombian Firm Dynamics

Using a rich dataset of Colombian manufacturing establishments between 1995 and 2004, we illustrate potential scarring effects of recessions operating through credit constraints. In contrast with the view that recessions are times of cleansing, we find that financially constrained businesses might be forced to exit the market during recessions even if they are highly productive. For instance, during recessions, an establishment with TFP at the lowest 10th percentile but not facing credit constraints has the same exit probability as a constrained plant with TFP at least as high as the 39th percentile. The gap is much smaller during expansions. The contribution of the paper is threefold. First, it evaluates the role played by credit constraints in explaining firm dynamics throughout the business cycle, a phenomenon the literature has dealt with mostly from a theoretical standpoint. Second, it sheds light on the implied long-run consequences of exits induced by lack of credit on efficiency. Finally, it is the only study we know of providing direct evidence to judge the empirical merits of proposed micro foundations behind the long-run consequences of crises.Plant exit, credit constraints, business cycles, recessions