"Minsky's Analysis, the European Single Currency, and the Global Financial System"

The paper begins with a brief review of the main ideas associated with Hyman Minsky and their implications for economic policy and the achievement of full employment. There is a focus on the financial instability hypothesis, the role of the central bank as lender of last resort, and the requirements for regulation of the financial system. The implications of these ideas for economic policy are then explored at the level of the European Union and the global economy. It is argued that the Minsky analysis would suggest that at the level of the nation state, the general drift of economic policy and changes in institutional arrangements have made the prospects for full employment bleak. For the European Union, the institutions that are emerging in the context of EMU and the euro are considered in terms of their impacts on the level of economic activity. At the global economy level, the need for international institutions to regulate the global financial system is considered.

"Reforming the Euro's Institutional Framework"

The SGP has been the focus of growing controversy within the eurozone. The ECB continues to argue that reforming the SGP by relaxing its rules would damage the credibility of the euro. The opposite, however, may be closer to reality. Relaxing the rules according to the measures already taken by the European Commission has been inconsequential regarding the euro's credibility. In our view, many more fiscal policy reforms are needed so that the eurozone can realize a true economic recovery and enhance the credibility of the euro.

"The Euro, Public Expenditure and Taxation"

This paper explores the probable consequences for public expenditure in the UK if Britain were to join the euro. It focuses on the effects of sterling joining the euro (and the associated implications, such as monetary policy being governed by the European Central Bank). It does not consider any broader questions of the effects of membership in the European Union and the policies pursued by the EU and the European Commission. Since the fiscal stance of government influences the level of demand in the economy, there are also important implications for the level of employment more generally. While the general deflationary nature of the economic policy of the eurozone (an issue we have explored elsewhere on many occasions) should not be overlooked, the focus of this paper is on the implications for public expenditure of the eurozone and the UK's possible entry into the euro.

"The Economic and Monetary Union: Current and Future Prospects"

The euro was adopted as legal tender, albeit in a virtual form, by eleven countries of the European Union on January 1, 1999, with the intention that notes and coins denominated in euros would be introduced and the national currencies would be phased out during the first six months of that year and that the euro would be fully operational by 2002. This paper first reviews the current position of the EMU member states in relation to the convergence criteria under the Maastricht Treaty and finds that there must have been a considerable degree of "fudge" for the criteria to have been met. The paper next looks at the central role of aggregate demand in the EMU and at concerns about unemployment. It then examines the prospects of the current EMU arrangements, concluding that they are highly deflationary. To overcome the deflationary bias of current proposals and as a means to alleviate the serious unemployment problem, the authors recommend that the European Central Bank be enhanced by (1) the development of a new institution, the European Union Development Bank, and (2) a modification of the Stability and Growth Pact.

"'Third Way' and The Challenges to Economic and Monetary Union Macropolicies"

In the United Kingdom the emergence of a "New Labour" has been closely associated with the development of the notion of the "third way." Tony Blair, for example, stated that "New Labour is neither old left nor new right. . . . Instead we offer a new way ahead, that leads from the centre but is profoundly radical in the change it promises." In a similar vein Giddens locates the "third way" by reference to two other "ways" of classical social democracy and neoliberalism. Although some notable contributions have been made on the subject of the "third way," rather little has been written specifically on the economic analysis underpinning it. This paper infers such an analysis by working back from the policies and policy pronouncements of governments. To do so, the paper examines the types of economic analyses being used to underpin the ideas of the "third way"; the suggestion that the ideas surrounding the economic analysis of the economic and monetary union's (EMU's) theoretical and policy framework are firmly embedded in that of "third way"; and the argument that the challenge for EMU macropolicies lies in their potential to achieve full employment and low inflation in the euro system. On the last point, the author concludes that these policies, as they currently operate, are not very promising. Alternatives are therefore suggested.

"Reinventing Fiscal Policy"

Recent developments in macroeconomic policy, in terms of both theory and practice, have elevated monetary policy while downgrading fiscal policy. Monetary policy has focused on the setting of interest rates as the key policy instrument, along with the adoption of inflation targets and the use of monetary policy to target inflation. Elsewhere, we have critically examined the significance of this shift, which led us to question the effectiveness of monetary policy. We have also explored the role of fiscal policy and argued that it should be reinstated. This contribution aims to consider further that conclusion. We consider at length fiscal policy within the current "new consensus" theoretical framework. We find the proposition of this thinking, that fiscal policy provides at best a limited role, unconvincing. We examine the possibility of crowding out and the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem. A short review of quantitative estimates of fiscal policy multipliers gives credence to our theoretical conclusions. Our overall conclusion is that, under specified conditions, fiscal policy is a powerful tool for macroeconomic policy.