Monetary Policy Committees in Action: Is There Room for Improvement?

More than 80 central banks use a committee to take monetary policy decisions. The composition of the committee and the structure of the meeting can affect the quality of the decision making. In this paper we review economic, experimental, sociological and psychological studies to identify criteria for the optimal institutional setting of a monetary committee. These include the optimal size of the committee, measures to encourage independent thinking, a relatively informal structure of the meeting, and abilities to identify and evaluate individual members' performances. Using these criteria, we evaluate the composition and operation of monetary policy committees in various central banks. Our findings indicate that e.g. the monetary policy committee of the Bank of England follows committee best-practice, while the committee structure of other major central banks could be improved.Central bank research; Monetary policy framework

Mixed Frequency Forecasts for Chinese GDP

We evaluate different approaches for using monthly indicators to predict Chinese GDP for the current and the next quarter (‘nowcasts’ and ‘forecasts’, respectively). We use three types of mixed-frequency models, one based on an economic activity indicator (Liu et al., 2007), one based on averaging over indicator models (Stock and Watson, 2004), and a static factor model (Stock and Watson, 2002). Evaluating all models’ out-of-sample projections, we find that all the approaches can yield considerable improvements over naïve AR benchmarks. We also analyze pooling across forecasting methodologies. We find that the most accurate nowcast is given by a combination of a factor model and an indicator model. The most accurate forecast is given by a factor model. Overall, we conclude that these models, or combinations of these models, can yield improvements in terms of RMSE’s of up to 60 per cent over simple AR benchmarks.Econometric and statistical methods; International topics

A Wave of Protectionism? An Analysis of Economic and Political Considerations

In light of the U.S. current account deficit, pressure is high on Asian countries to revalue their currencies. The calls from some U.S. policymakers for tariffs on imports from China has sparked fears that this could trigger a world-wide surge in protectionism. This study evaluates the risk of protectionism, considering two dimensions: first, the economic effects of tariffs; second, the incentives for policymakers to adopt tariffs. Following the political economy literature, we distinguish 'benevolent' policymakers - who care about long-term GDP - and 'myopic' policymakers, for whom short-term considerations are important. An analysis of the economic effects using the Bank of Canada's Global Economy Model shows that the gains from import tariffs are small: in the short-term, tariffs raise the price of imports and shift consumption toward domestically-produced goods; but they also lead to a real appreciation. This improves the terms of trade, but falling export volumes lead to a reduction in GDP in the long-run. As regards the political dimension, we conclude that a 'benevolent' policymaker would not adopt tariffs, because of negative long-term economic consequences, but 'myopic' policymakers might be tempted to exploit short-term political gains. Given the potentially high costs of protectionist trade policies, protectionism is therefore rightly viewed as an important risk.International topics; Recent economic and financial developments; Regional economic developments

Conference Summary: International Experience with the Conduct of Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting

Central bankers from inflation-targeting and non-inflation-targeting countries around the world and several distinguished scholars assembled at the Bank of Canada in July 2008 to review the international experience in some detail. This article highlights topics covered in the special lectures and sessions, including how inflation targeting can manage external shocks, various ways in which monetary policy decisions are taken, and the issues of transparency and communications. It also reports on the discussion in the closing panel, which considered options for the future of inflation targeting.

Do We Need the IMF to Resolve a Crisis? Lessons from Past Episodes of Debt Restructuring

This study investigate how debt restructurings have evolved over the decades. Debtors and creditors have a long history of engaging an outsider - a "third party", such as the IMF - to organise and facilitate debt restructurings. As we show, the importance of these "third parties" has grown over time. At the same time, the financial environment has evolved rapidly, and financial markets have become more liquid and better able to spread risk in recent decades. In today's economic environment, the financial system of many advanced countries is better isolated from the negative consequences of a lengthy restructuring process. Consequently, from the perspective of creditor countries, the fact that "third parties" can facilitate and shorten the restructuring process has become less valuable. That said, emerging economies still benefit from involving a "third party", as this might help to overcome coordination problems among creditors and signal that the local authorities are effectively dealing with the crisis, which might help to restore confidence. This holds all the more since creditors have better access to litigation nowadays than during earlier episodes of debt restructurings.Financial stability; International topics

Machine learning regression on hyperspectral data to estimate multiple water parameters

In this paper, we present a regression framework involving several machine learning models to estimate water parameters based on hyperspectral data. Measurements from a multi-sensor field campaign, conducted on the River Elbe, Germany, represent the benchmark dataset. It contains hyperspectral data and the five water parameters chlorophyll a, green algae, diatoms, CDOM and turbidity. We apply a PCA for the high-dimensional data as a possible preprocessing step. Then, we evaluate the performance of the regression framework with and without this preprocessing step. The regression results of the framework clearly reveal the potential of estimating water parameters based on hyperspectral data with machine learning. The proposed framework provides the basis for further investigations, such as adapting the framework to estimate water parameters of different inland waters.Comment: This work has been accepted to the IEEE WHISPERS 2018 conference. (C) 2018 IEE

Universality in antiferromagnetic strange metals

We propose a theory of metals at the spin-density wave quantum critical point in spatial dimension $d=2$. We provide a first estimate of the full set of critical exponents (dynamical exponent $z=2.13$, correlation length $\nu =1.02$, spin susceptibility $\gamma = 0.96$, electronic non-Fermi liquid $\eta^f_\tau = 0.53$, spin-wave Landau damping $\eta^b_\tau = 1.06$), which determine the universal power-laws in thermodynamics and response functions in the quantum-critical regime relevant for experiments in heavy-fermion systems and iron pnictides. We present approximate numerical and analytical solutions of Polchinski-Wetterich type flow equations with soft frequency regulators for an effective action of electrons coupled to spin-wave bosons. Performing the renormalization group in frequency -instead of momentum- space allows to track changes of the Fermi surface shape and to capture Landau damping during the flow. The technique is easily generalizable from models retaining only patches of the Fermi surface to full, compact Fermi surfaces.Comment: 46 pages, 13 figures, typos fixed; as accepted to Physical Review

Good Policies or Good Fortune: What Drives the Compression in Emerging Market Spreads?

Since 2002, spreads on emerging market sovereign debt have fallen to historical lows. Given the close links between sovereign spreads, capital flows to emerging markets, and economic growth, understanding the factors driving these spreads is very important. We address this issue in two stages. First, we use factor analysis to study the extent to which emerging market bond spreads are driven by global factors, as opposed to country-specific macroeconomic fundamentals. Using data on different U.S. asset classes, we identify a common factor, linked to global financial conditions. Second, we use this common factor in a panel estimation framework to analyze the degree to which the fall in spreads is driven by better macroeconomic policies. Our results show that the common factor is not responsible for the reduction in spreads. Instead, emerging markets have benefited considerably from better macroeconomic policies, including lower inflation and lower debt. Therefore, a reversal of the benign global conditions need not necessarily have a substantial negative impact on financing conditions for emerging markets.Development economics; Financial stability; International topics

EMU enlargement and convergence of price levels: Lessons from the German reunification

We analyse the possible impact of EMU enlargement on inflation rates in the accession countries. Using a simple theoretical model we show that the optimal path price adjustments should be asymmetric, i.e. occuring mostly in the candidate countries. Using data from the German reunification we examine how price level convergence could come about. These findings are applied to the enlargement EMU: our findings indicate that (trend) inflation rates in the EMU candidate countries are likely to increase sharply, whereas the impact on the current euro area likely to be small, albeit not negligible. Our results support the need to allow some flexibility in the exchange rate arrangements with the candidate countries facilitate gradual price level convergence prior to EMU enlargement.EMU enlargement, accession countries, inflation, ECB, euro area, Germany, reunification

The Impact of the Global Business Cycle on Small Open Economies: A FAVAR Approach for Canada

Building on the growing evidence on the importance of large data sets for empirical macroeconomic modeling, we use a factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) model with more than 260 series for 20 OECD countries to analyze how global developments affect the Canadian economy. We focus on several sources of shocks, including commodity prices, foreign economic activity, and foreign interest rates. We evaluate the impact of each shock on key Canadian macroeconomic variables to provide a comprehensive picture of the effect of international shocks on the Canadian economy. Our findings indicate that Canada is primarily exposed to shocks to foreign activity and to commodity prices. In contrast, the impact of shocks to global interest rates or global inflation is substantially lower. Our findings also expose the different channels through which higher commodity prices impact the Canadian economy: Canada benefits from higher commodity prices through a positive terms of trade shock, but at the same time, higher commodity prices tend to lower global economic activity, hurting demand for Canadian exports.International topics; Econometric and statistical methods; Business fluctuations and cycles