A sectoral analysis of Barbados’ GDP business cycle

This paper has two main objectives. Firstly, to establish and characterise a reference cycle (based on real output) for Barbados over the quarterly period 1974-2003 using the Bry and Boschan algorithm. Secondly, to link this aggregate output cycle to the cycles of the individual sectors that comprises real output. The overriding conclusions are that the cycles of tourism and wholesale and retail closely resembles that of the aggregate business cycle, while the non-sugar agriculture and fishing cycle is acyclical.Barbados; Gross Domestic Product, Business Cycle

Are Caribbean countries diverging or converging? evidence from spatial econometrics

After gaining political independence from the European countries and the United States, the Caribbean Basin economies have at the end of the 2000s display considerable differences in income and living standards. In this paper the concepts of convergence are used to examine whether disparities in per capita GDP of selected countries in the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) have tended to diminish or not. It was shown, based on descriptive statistical methods, and spatial statistical and econometric tests of beta-convergence and sigma-convergence that there was an absence of convergence for CARICOM countries since the early 1980s. This is so even in the OECS group which are linked in a quasi monetary union framework.Spacial Economics, Caribbean, Convergence

A review of leading composite indicators: making a case for their use in Caribbean economies

In this article, three issues relating to leading composite indicators (LCI) are discussed: their importance, methods of estimation and uses by institutions worldwide. This discussion is utilised to provide lessons that could be learnt for the application of these indicators to the countries of the Caribbean. The principal message of this material is that in this geographical area, LCI would be important tools for economic decision makers to employ to forecast the future state of the economy. This option should be pursued vigorously by putting the necessary resources into developing the high frequency real sector data that is required for a successful application of the LCI methodology.Business cycles; Leading indicators

Unemployment hysteresis in the English-speaking Caribbean: evidence from non-linear models

In the Caribbean Basin, as in many other parts of the world, unemployment, with rates between 15 and 30 percent, has become one of the major problems affecting these societies. This article highlights the specific characteristics of Caribbean unemployment, contrasting them with those observed in the industrialized and developed nations. Secondly, it summarizes the main ideas that have been proposed to explain the problem of unemployment hysteresis and discusses their appropriateness in the case of the countries under consideration. Finally, it uses the framework of threshold models and processes with nonlinearities in the mean to empirically examine the hypothesis of hysteresis. The results supported these non- linear specifications: for Barbados, an LSTAR model is preferred while in the case of Trinidad and Tobago, an ESTAR specification is selected.Unemployment persistence, Unit root tests, Non-linear models

A sectoral analysis of Barbados’ GDP business cycle

This paper has two main objectives. Firstly, to establish and characterise a reference cycle (based on real output) for Barbados over the quarterly period 1974-2003 using the Bry and Boschan algorithm. Secondly, to link this aggregate output cycle to the cycles of the individual sectors that comprises real output. The overriding conclusions are that the cycles of tourism and wholesale and retail closely resembles that of the aggregate business cycle, while the non-sugar agriculture and fishing cycle is acyclical

Are Caribbean countries diverging or converging? evidence from spatial econometrics

After gaining political independence from the European countries and the United States, the Caribbean Basin economies have at the end of the 2000s display considerable differences in income and living standards. In this paper the concepts of convergence are used to examine whether disparities in per capita GDP of selected countries in the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) have tended to diminish or not. It was shown, based on descriptive statistical methods, and spatial statistical and econometric tests of beta-convergence and sigma-convergence that there was an absence of convergence for CARICOM countries since the early 1980s. This is so even in the OECS group which are linked in a quasi monetary union framework

Are Caribbean countries diverging or converging? evidence from spatial econometrics

After gaining political independence from the European countries and the United States, the Caribbean Basin economies have at the end of the 2000s display considerable differences in income and living standards. In this paper the concepts of convergence are used to examine whether disparities in per capita GDP of selected countries in the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) have tended to diminish or not. It was shown, based on descriptive statistical methods, and spatial statistical and econometric tests of beta-convergence and sigma-convergence that there was an absence of convergence for CARICOM countries since the early 1980s. This is so even in the OECS group which are linked in a quasi monetary union framework

A sectoral analysis of Barbados’ GDP business cycle

This paper has two main objectives. Firstly, to establish and characterise a reference cycle (based on real output) for Barbados over the quarterly period 1974-2003 using the Bry and Boschan algorithm. Secondly, to link this aggregate output cycle to the cycles of the individual sectors that comprises real output. The overriding conclusions are that the cycles of tourism and wholesale and retail closely resembles that of the aggregate business cycle, while the non-sugar agriculture and fishing cycle is acyclical

Unemployment hysteresis in the English-speaking Caribbean: evidence from non-linear models

In the Caribbean Basin, as in many other parts of the world, unemployment, with rates between 15 and 30 percent, has become one of the major problems affecting these societies. This article highlights the specific characteristics of Caribbean unemployment, contrasting them with those observed in the industrialized and developed nations. Secondly, it summarizes the main ideas that have been proposed to explain the problem of unemployment hysteresis and discusses their appropriateness in the case of the countries under consideration. Finally, it uses the framework of threshold models and processes with nonlinearities in the mean to empirically examine the hypothesis of hysteresis. The results supported these non- linear specifications: for Barbados, an LSTAR model is preferred while in the case of Trinidad and Tobago, an ESTAR specification is selected

A review of leading composite indicators: making a case for their use in Caribbean economies

In this article, three issues relating to leading composite indicators (LCI) are discussed: their importance, methods of estimation and uses by institutions worldwide. This discussion is utilised to provide lessons that could be learnt for the application of these indicators to the countries of the Caribbean. The principal message of this material is that in this geographical area, LCI would be important tools for economic decision makers to employ to forecast the future state of the economy. This option should be pursued vigorously by putting the necessary resources into developing the high frequency real sector data that is required for a successful application of the LCI methodology