Business cycle measures

Business cycle measures can provide timely statistical evidence of turning points.Business cycles

When do recessions begin and end?

With the funds rate driven to levels far below its target, the FOMC had no recourse but to adjust the target accordingly.Recessions

Splitsville: the economics of unilateral divorce

New studies have looked at the impact of easier divorce on everything from women working outside the home to children's education to spousal violence.Public policy

Whatever happened to the business cycle? a Bayesian analysis of jobless recoveries

During the typical recovery from U.S. post-War period economic downturns, employment recovers to its pre-recession level within months of the output trough. However, during the last two recoveries, employment has taken up to two years to achieve its pre-recession benchmark. We propose a formal empirical model of business cycles with recovery periods to demonstrate that the last two recoveries have been statistically different from previous experiences. We find that this difference can be attributed to a shift in the speed of transition between business cycle regimes. Moreover, we find this shift results from both durable and non-durable manufacturing sectors losing their cyclical characteristics. We argue that this finding of acyclicality in post-1980 manufacturing sectors is consistent with previous hypotheses (e.g., improved inventory management) regarding the reduction in macroeconomic volatility over the same period. These results suggest a link between the two phenomena, which have heretofore been studied separately.Business cycles ; Labor market

Look who's working now

Labor supply ; Labor market

Not your father's oil shock

Factors other than changes in oil supply may cause changes in oil prices.Petroleum products - Prices

Your current job probably won't be your last

Employment

Extra credit: the rise of short-term liabilities

Not only are more American families in debt, but the median value of the debt more than doubled between 1989 and 2004. Credit cards and payday loans are two of the favorite tools for digging the hole deeper.Credit

Hard 'core' inflation

Inflation (Finance)

What are the chances?

Business cycles ; Forecasting