Terrorism Risk Concern in Europe

We explore whether differences of terrorism risk perception across all European countries reflect their underlying differences in terrorism risk, which we decompose into a long term and innovation component. We employ longitudinal country-level data on terrorism risk concern and our modeling approach is motivated by the Bayesian framework. We conclude that the observed risk perception variation is significantly explained by the long term terrorism countries face, while the cyclical part of terrorism activity does not affect risk perception

Perceptions and Attitudes to a Terrorist Shock: Evidence from the UK

The emergence of transnational terrorism in Western countries has raised the debate about security measures, some of which could constrain civil liberties. This is the first paper that uses terrorist attacks (on 7th July, 2005 in London) as an exogenous source of variation to study the dynamics of risk perceptions and its impact on the readiness to trade off civil liberties for enhanced security. In this framework we show that the willingness to trade off security for liberties is dramatically affected by changes in individual risk assessments brought on after a terrorist attack, and document the extent of its persistence

On the Determinants of Terrorism Risk Concern in Europe

We investigate whether differences in terrorism risk are mirrored on terrorism risk concern across European countries for the period 2003-2007. We find that the average propensity for terrorism risk concern is indeed affected by actual risk levels. Furthermore, country and individual heterogeneity contribute substantially to the variation of observed risk concern. According to our findings, males, singles and individuals with white collar jobs are less likely to mention terrorism as one of the most pressing issues their country faces. In contrast, political positioning towards the right end of the spectrum and living in rural areas make it more likely to be concerned about terrorism. As far as competing risks are concerned, we find that the likelihood terrorism is mentioned increases when competing risks' drivers also increase such as taxation, inflation, unemployment and poverty risk at work. In contrast, terrorism is less likely to be mentioned when the determinants of crime, immigration rates, housing costs and pensions are higher. Finally, based on the Bayesian framework we also examine the formation of terrorism risk perceptions, and decompose the observed country level time series of terrorism activity into a long and a short run component. We conclude that the observed risk concern variation is mostly explained by the trend part of terrorism activity countries face, although cyclical variations are also important

The Threat of Terrorism: The Perspective of a Policy-Maker

This note defines and analyzes the most important issues concerning decisionmaking about human-induced insecurities such as terrorism and organized crime from the perspective of a policymaker. By means of modeling the policymakers trade-o_ between the e_ectiveness and costs of policy measures targeted at reducing the threat of terrorism, we aim at helping to understand the role economic research can take to enable e_cient decisionmaking in the context of human-induced insecurities in general and terrorism in particular

Highlighting the Major Trade-Offs Concerning Anti-Terrorism Policies

Human-induced security, or terrorism, is a threat to wellbeing in Europe and beyond. In this Policy Briefing, we investigate the risks involved in terrorism, both with respect to the likelihood and with respect to the consequences of acts of terrorism. Furthermore, we provide a basic analysis of existing anti-terrorism policies, the costs involved in them and their effectiveness. We show that terrorism is a very broad term, but that one can make a number of broad policy recommendations, including the fact that the rational economic approach to terrorism recognizes that terrorists respond to the incentives they are provided with

How Rational Is the Response of Individuals to the Threat of Terrorism in Europe?

In this Policy Briefing, we address two important questions. We look at the drivers of concern about terrorism and find that beyond individual characteristics, it is also affected by the occurrence of terrorism. When distinguishing between permanent and transitory terrorism, the first has a much stronger impact than the first. The second question concerns how terrorism affects the policy preferences of voters. We find that while a higher level of terrorist concern does increase people's willingness to trade off civil liberties for more security, a singular attack has only a temporary effect. After only a few months, people's preferences return towards their pre-attack levels