Measuring poverty dynammics and inequality in transition economies - disentangling real events from noisy data

The author uses instrumental variable methods, and the decomposition of income into transitory and persistent components to distinguish underlying income inequality and changes in poverty from the effects attributable to measurement error or transitory shocks. He applies this methodology to household-level panel data for Russia and Poland in the mid-1990s. The author finds that: 1) Accounting for noise in the data reduces inequality (as measured by the Gini coefficient) by 10-45 percent. 2) Individuals in both countries face much economic insecurity. The median absolute annual change in income or spending is about fifty percent in Russia, and about 20 percent in Poland. But roughly half of these fluctuations reflect measurement error or transitory shocks, so underlying levels of income, and spending are much more stable than the data suggest. 3) The apparent high levels of economic mobility are driven largely by transitory events and noisy data. After transitory shocks are accounted for, about eighty percent of the poor in both Russia and Poland remain in poverty for at least one year. So there is a real risk of an entrenched underclass emerging in these transition economies.Inequality,Governance Indicators,Economic Theory&Research,Poverty Diagnostics,Environmental Economics&Policies

Does the Minimum Wage Cause Inefficient Rationing?

This paper investigates whether the minimum wage leads to inefficient job rationing. By not allowing wages to clear the labor market, the minimum wage could cause workers with low reservation wages to be rationed out while equally skilled workers with higher reservation wages are employed. This paper exploits the overlapping nature of the CPS panels to more precisely identify those most affected by the minimum wage, a group I refer to as the "unskilled." I test for inefficient rationing by examining whether the reservation wages of employed unskilled workers in states where the 1990-1991 federal minimum wage increase had the largest impact rose relative to reservation wages of unskilled workers in other states. I find that reservation wages of unskilled workers in high-impact states did not rise relative to reservation wages in other states, indicating that the increase in the minimum wage did not cause jobs to be allocated less efficiently.

Neighbors as Negatives: Relative Earnings and Well-Being

This paper investigates whether individuals feel worse off when others around them earn more. In other words, do people care about relative position and does lagging behind the Joneses' diminish well-being? To answer this question, I match individual-level panel data containing a number of indicators of well-being to information about local average earnings. I find that, controlling for an individual's own income, higher earnings of neighbors are associated with lower levels of self-reported happiness. The data's panel nature and rich set of measures of well-being and behavior indicate that this association is not driven by selection or by changes in the way people define happiness. There is suggestive evidence that the negative effect of increases in neighbors' earnings on own well-being is most likely caused by interpersonal preferences people having utility functions that depend on relative consumption in addition to absolute consumption.

What Determines Giving to Hurricane Katrina Victims? Experimental Evidence on Income, Race, and Fairness

We investigate determinants of private and public generosity to Katrina victims using an artifactual field experiment. In this experiment, respondents from the general population viewed a short audiovisual presentation that manipulated respondents' perceptions of the income, race, and deservingness of Katrina victims in one of two small cities. Respondents then decided how to split $100 between themselves and a charity helping Katrina victims in this small city. We also collected survey data on subjective support for government spending to help the Katrina victims in the cities. We find, first, that our income manipulation had a significant effect on giving; respondents gave more when they perceived the victims to be poorer. Second, the race and deservingness manipulations had virtually no effect on average giving. Third, the averages mask substantial racial bias among sub-groups of our sample. For instance, the subgroup of whites who identify with their ethnic or racial group strongly biased their giving against blacks. Finally, subjective support for government spending to help Katrina victims was significantly influenced by both our race and deservingness manipulations, but not by the income manipulation. White respondents supported significantly less public spending for black victims and significantly more for victims who were described in more flattering terms, such as being helpful and law-abiding.

Would People Behave Differently If They Better Understood Social Security? Evidence From a Field Experiment

This paper presents the results of a field experiment in which a sample of older workers was randomized between a treatment group that was given information about key Social Security provisions and a control group that was not. The experiment was designed to examine whether it is possible to affect individual behavior using a relatively inexpensive informational intervention about the provisions of a public program and to explore the mechanisms underlying the behavior change. We find that our relatively mild intervention (sending an informational brochure and an invitation to a web-tutorial) increased labor force participation one year later by 4 percentage points relative to the control group mean of 74 percent and that this effect is driven by a 7.2 percentage point increase among female subjects. In addition to affecting actual labor supply behavior, the information intervention increased survey measures of the perceived returns to working longer, especially among female respondents.

Insuring Consumption and Happiness Through Religious Organizations

This paper examines whether involvement with religious organizations insures an individual's stream of consumption and of happiness. Using data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX), we examine whether households who contribute to a religious organization are able to insure their consumption stream against income shocks and find strong insurance effects for whites. Using the National Survey of Families and Households (NSFH), we examine whether individuals who attend religious services are able to insure their stream of happiness against income shocks and find strong happiness insurance effects for blacks but smaller effects for whites. Overall, our results are consistent with the view that religion provides an alternative form of insurance for both whites and blacks though the mechanism by which religious organizations provide insurance to each of these groups appears to be different.

Culture, Context, and the Taste for Redistribution

Is culture an important determinant of preferences for redistribution? To separate the effect of culture from the effect of the economic and institutional environment ("context"), we relate immigrants' preferences for redistribution to the average preference in their birth countries, controlling extensively for individual characteristics and country-of-residence fixed effects. We find a strong positive relationship. This cultural effect is larger for non-voters, those with shorter tenure in the country of residence, and those who move to countries with a large number of immigrants from their own birth countries. Immigrants from countries with a higher preference for redistribution are also more likely to vote for a more pro-redistribution political party. The effect of culture persists strongly into the second generation.

Approaches to Estimating the Health State Dependence of the Utility Function

If the marginal utility of consumption depends on health status, this will affect the economic analysis of a number of central problems in public finance, including the optimal structure of health insurance and optimal life cycle savings. In this paper, we describe the promises and challenges of various approaches to estimating the effect of health on the marginal utility of consumption. Our basic conclusion is that while none of these approaches is a panacea, many offer the potential to shed important insights on the nature of health state dependence.insurance, health, state dependence, marginal utility

Social Support Shopping: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity in Disability Insurance Reform

This paper examines how a change in the generosity of one social assistance program generates spillovers onto other social assistance programs. We exploit an age discontinuity in the stringency of the 1993 Dutch disability reforms to estimate the causal effect of exit from disability insurance (DI) on participation in other social assistance programs. We find strong evidence of "social support shopping": 43 percent of those induced to leave DI due to the reform receive an alternative form of social assistance two years after the implementation of the reform. As a result, for each Euro saved in DI benefits, the government has to spend an extra 60 cents in other social assistance programs. This crowd-out rate grows from 60% to 69% if we also take into account the response of the partners’ of those affected by the DI reform. The crowd-out effect declines over time, but is still 25% eight years after the reform.crowd-out, spillover effects, social insurance, income assistance, welfare, regression discontinuity, administrative data

Private Investment and Government Protection

Hurricane Katrina did massive damage because New Orleans and the Gulf Coast were not appropriately protected. Wherever natural disasters threaten, the government -- in its traditional role as public goods provider -- must decide what level of protection to provide to an area. It does so by purchasing protective capital, such as levees for a low-lying city. We show that if private capital is more likely to locate in better-protected areas, then the marginal social value of protection will increase with the level of protection provided. That is, the benefit function is convex, contrary to the normal assumption of concavity. When the government protects and the private sector invests, due to the ill-behaved nature of the benefit function, there may be multiple Nash equilibria. Policy makers must compare them, rather than merely follow local optimality conditions, to find the equilibrium offering the highest social welfare. There is usually considerable uncertainty about the amount of investment that will accompany any level of protection, further complicating the government%u2019s choice problem. We show that when deciding on the current level of protection, the government must take account of the option value of increasing the level of protection in the future.