Changes in the Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a Warming Climate During 2003-2009

Mass changes of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) derived from ICESat and GRACE data both show that the net mass loss from GIS during 2003-2009 is about 175 Gt/year, which contributes 0.5mm/yr global sea-level rise. The rate of mass loss has increased significantly since the 1990's when the GIS was close to mass balance. Even though the GIS was close to mass balance during the 1990's, it was already showing characteristics of responding to8 warmer climate, specifically thinning at the margins and thickening inland at higher elevations. During 2003-2009, increased ice thinning due to increases in melting and acceleration of outlet glaciers began to strongly exceed the inland thickening from increases in accumulation. Over the entire GIS, the mass loss between the two periods, from increased melting and ice dynamics, increased by about 190 Gt/year while the mass gain, from increased precipitation and accumulation, increased by only about 15Gt/year. These ice changes occurred during a time when the temperature on GIS changed at rate of about 2K/decade. The distribution of elevation and mass changes derived from ICESat have high spatial resolution showing details over outlet glaciers, by drainage systems, and by elevation. However, information on the seasonal cycle of changes from ICESat data is limited, because the ICESat lasers were only operated during two to three campaigns per year of about 35 days duration each. In contrast, the temporal resolution of GRACE data, provided by the continuous data collection, is much better showing details of the seasonal cycle and the inter-annual variability. The differing sensitivity of the ICESat altimetry and the GRACE gravity methods to motion of the underlying bedrock from glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is used to evaluate the GIA corrections provided by models. The two data types are also combined to make estimates of the partitioning of the mass gains and losses among accumulation, melting, and ice discharge from outlet glaciers

Revision of the Atmospheric Delay Correction for ICESat-2 Laser Altimeter Ranges

In 2001 Herring and Quinn proposed the algorithm for correction for atmospheric delay to ICESat-1 GLAS laser altimeter. The purpose of this document is to provide a revision of the algorithm suitable for processing the data from ICESat-2 mission scheduled for launch in 2016. The goal of the revision is to provide a procedure for atmospheric delay correction that would be precise to 1 mm level. The actual accuracy of delay computation will be somewhat less, but it will be limited only by imperfection of the used numerical weather model

Tests of Ocean-Tide Models by Analysis of Satellite-To-Satellite Range Measurements: An Update

Seven years of GRACE intersatellite range-rate measurements are used to test the new ocean tide model FES2014 and to compare against similar results obtained with earlier models. These qualitative assessments show that FES2014 represents a marked improvement in accuracy over its earlier incarnation, FES2012, with especially notable improvements in the Arctic Ocean for constituents K(sub 1) and S(sub 2). Degradation appears to have occurred in two anomalous regions: the Ross Sea for the O(sub 1) constituent and the Weddell Sea for M(sub 2)

Simulation Study of a Follow-on Gravity Mission to GRACE

The gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) has been providing monthly estimates of the Earth's time-variable gravity field since its launch in March 2002. The GRACE gravity estimates are used to study temporal mass variations on global and regional scales, which are largely caused by a redistribution of water mass in the Earth system. The accuracy of the GRACE gravity fields are primarily limited by the satellite-to-satellite range-rate measurement noise, accelerometer errors, attitude errors, orbit errors, and temporal aliasing caused by unmodeled high-frequency variations in the gravity signal. Recent work by Ball Aerospace and Technologies Corp., Boulder, CO has resulted in the successful development of an interferometric laser ranging system to specifically address the limitations of the K-band microwave ranging system that provides the satellite-to-satellite measurements for the GRACE mission. Full numerical simulations are performed for several possible configurations of a GRACE Follow-On (GFO) mission to determine if a future satellite gravity recovery mission equipped with a laser ranging system will provide better estimates of time-variable gravity, thus benefiting many areas of Earth systems research. The laser ranging system improves the range-rate measurement precision to approximately 0.6 nm/s as compared to approx. 0.2 micro-seconds for the GRACE K-band microwave ranging instrument. Four different mission scenarios are simulated to investigate the effect of the better instrument at two different altitudes. The first pair of simulated missions is flown at GRACE altitude (approx. 480 km) assuming on-board accelerometers with the same noise characteristics as those currently used for GRACE. The second pair of missions is flown at an altitude of approx. 250 km which requires a drag-free system to prevent satellite re-entry. In addition to allowing a lower satellite altitude, the drag-free system also reduces the errors associated with the accelerometer. All simulated mission scenarios assume a two satellite co-orbiting pair similar to GRACE in a near-polar, near-circular orbit. A method for local time variable gravity recovery through mass concentration blocks (mascons) is used to form simulated gravity estimates for Greenland and the Amazon region for three GFO configurations and GRACE. Simulation results show that the increased precision of the laser does not improve gravity estimation when flown with on-board accelerometers at the same altitude and spacecraft separation as GRACE, even when time-varying background models are not included. This study also shows that only modest improvement is realized for the best-case scenario (laser, low-altitude, drag-free) as compared to GRACE due to temporal aliasing errors. These errors are caused by high-frequency variations in the hydrology signal and imperfections in the atmospheric, oceanographic, and tidal models which are used to remove unwanted signal. This work concludes that applying the updated technologies alone will not immediately advance the accuracy of the gravity estimates. If the scientific objectives of a GFO mission require more accurate gravity estimates, then future work should focus on improvements in the geophysical models, and ways in which the mission design or data processing could reduce the effects of temporal aliasing

Simulations of Recovery of Time-Varying Gravity from DECIGO Pathfinder

We simulated time-varying Earth's gravity field recovered from DPF to evaluate an impact of DPF and future satellite gradiometry mission on earth science. From hydrological water movement data and orbit information, gravity gradients to be measured at altitude about ~500km were generated. Errors caused by atmospheric and oceanic variations and instrumental noise were added. Monthly gravity fields were estimated solving normal equations between spherical harmonic coefficients and simulated gravity gradient data. Simulation results show that DPF likely provides monthly hydrological water storage change with spatial scale between 400 and 1000km. Sensitivities to large scale estimates depends on long-term stability of gravity gradient measurement, and errors in short scale estimates are caused by instrumental noise and imperfections in atmospheric and ocean model. With acceleration noise level is lower than ~5 x 10(exp -14) [m/s2/sqrtHz] at frequency higher than 3mHz, water storage changes at limited small basins will be provided by DPF. To monitor continental scale hydrological water movement, noise level must be lower than ~5 x 10(exp -14) [m/s2/sqrtHz] at frequency higher than 1mHz

Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Temperature, Melt, and Mass Loss: 2000-2006

Extensive melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented by a variety of ground and satellite measurements in recent years. If the well-documented warming continues in the Arctic, melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet will likely accelerate, contributing to sea-level rise. Modeling studies indicate that an annual or summer temperature rise of 1 C on the ice sheet will increase melt by 20-50% therefore, surface temperature is one of the most important ice-sheet parameters to study for analysis of changes in the mass balance of the ice-sheet. The Greenland Ice Sheet contains enough water to produce a rise in eustatic sea level of up to 7.0 m if the ice were to melt completely. However, even small changes (centimeters) in sea level would cause important economic and societal consequences in the world's major coastal cities thus it is extremely important to monitor changes in the ice-sheet surface temperature and to ultimately quantify these changes in terms of amount of sea-level rise. We have compiled a high-resolution, daily time series of surface temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet, using the I-km resolution, clear-sky land-surface temperature (LST) standard product from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), from 2000 - 2006. We also use Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data, averaged over 10-day periods, to measure change in mass of the ice sheet as it melt and snow accumulates. Surface temperature can be used to determine frequency of surface melt, timing of the start and the end of the melt season, and duration of melt. In conjunction with GRACE data, it can also be used to analyze timing of ice-sheet mass loss and gain

Analysis of a GRACE Global Mascon Solution for Gulf of Alaska Glaciers

We present a high-resolution Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mascon solution for Gulf of Alaska (GOA) glaciers and compare this with in situ glaciological, climate and other remote-sensing observations. Our GRACE solution yields a GOA glacier mass balance of -6511 Gt a(exp.-1) for the period December 2003 to December 2010, with summer balances driving the interannual variability. Between October/November 2003 and October 2009 we obtain a mass balance of -6111 Gt a(exp. -1) from GRACE, which compares well with -6512 Gt a(exp. -1) from ICESat based on hypsometric extrapolation of glacier elevation changes. We find that mean summer (June-August) air temperatures derived from both ground and lower-troposphere temperature records were good predictors of GRACE-derived summer mass balances, capturing 59% and 72% of the summer balance variability respectively. Large mass losses during 2009 were likely due to low early melt season surface albedos, measured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and likely associated with the 31 March 2009 eruption of Mount Redoubt, southwestern Alaska. GRACE data compared well with in situ measurements atWolverine Glacier (maritime Alaska), but poorly with those at Gulkana Glacier (interior Alaska). We conclude that, although GOA mass estimates from GRACE are robust over the entire domain, further constraints on subregional and seasonal estimates are necessary to improve fidelity to ground observations

Time Variable Gravity modeling for Precise Orbits Across the TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-l and Jason-2 Missions

Modeling of the Time Variable Gravity (TVG) is believed to constitute one of the the largest remaining source of orbit error for altimeter satellite POD. The GSFC operational TVG model consists of forward modeling the atmospheric gravity using ECMWF 6-hour pressure data, a GRACE derived 20x20 annual field to account for changes in the hydrology and ocean water mass, and linear rates for C20, C30, C40, based on 17 years of SLR data analysis (IERS 2003) using the EIGEN-GL04S1 (a GRACE+Lageos-based geopotential solution). Although the GSFC Operational model can be applied from 1987, there may be long-term variations not captured by these linear models, and more importantly the linear models may not be consistent with more recent surface mass trends due to global climate change, We have evaluated the impact of TVG in two different wavs: (1) by using the more recent EIGEN-6S gravity model developed by the GFZ/GRGS tearm, which consists of annual, semi-annual and secular changes in the coefficients to 50x50 determined over 8(?) years of GRACE+Lageos+GOCE data (2003-200?): (2) Application of 4x4 solutions developed from a multi satellite SLR+DORIS solution based on GGM03S that span the period from 1993 to 2011. We have evaluated the recently released EIGEN6s static and time-varying gravity field for Jason-2 (J2). Jason-I (J1), and TOPEX/Posiedon (TP) Precise Orbit Determination (POD) spanning 1993-2011. Although EIGEN6s shows significant improvement for J2POD spanning 2008 - 2011, it also shows significant degradation for TP POD from 1992. The GSFC 4x4 time SLR+DORIS-based series spans 1993 to mid 2011, and shows promise for POD. We evaluate the performance of the different TVG models based on analysis of tracking data residuals use of independent data such as altimeter crossovers, and through analysis of differences with internally-generated and externally generated orbits

Antarctica, Greenland and Gulf of Alaska Land-Ice Evolution from an Iterated GRACE Global Mascon Solution

We have determined the ice mass evolution of the Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets (AIS and GIS) and Gulf of Alaska (GOA) glaciers from a new GRACE global solution of equal-area surface mass concentration parcels (mascons) in equivalent height of water. The mascons were estimated directly from the reduction of the inter-satellite K-band range-rate (KBRR) observations, taking into account the full noise covariance, and formally iterating the solution. The new solution increases signal recovery while reducing the GRACE KBRR observation residuals. The mascons were estimated with 10 day and 1 arc degree equal-area sampling, applying anisotropic constraints. An ensemble empirical mode decomposition adaptive filter was applied to the mascon time series to compute annual mass balances. The details and causes of the spatial and temporal variability of the land-ice regions studied are discussed. The estimated mass trend over the total GIS, AIS and GOA glaciers for the time period 1 December 2003 to 1 December 2010 is -380 plus or minus 31 Gt a(exp -1), equivalent to -1.05 plus or minus 0.09 mma(exp -1) sea-level rise. Over the same time period we estimate the mass acceleration to be -41 plus or minus 27 Gt a(exp -2), equivalent to a 0.11 plus or minus 0.08 mm a(exp -2) rate of change in sea level. The trends and accelerations are dependent on significant seasonal and annual balance anomalies

Hydrological Variations in Australia Recovered by GRACE High-Resolution Mascons Solutions

Australia represents a challenging region in which to study hydrological variations as recovered by the GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) mission data. Much of Australia is characterized by relatively small hydrological signals, with large precipitation gradients between the North and the South. These signals are better recovered using innovative GRACE processing techniques such as high-resolution mascon solutions, which may help overcome the deficiencies in the standard GRACE data processing and filtering methods. We will show the power of using regional and global mas con solutions to recover hydrological variations from 2003 to 2011, as well as the oceanic mass variations in the surrounding regions. We will compare the GRACE signals with state of the art hydrology and ocean general circulation models, precipitation, soil moisture and groundwater data sets. We especially emphasize the gravity signatures observed during the decadal drought in the Murray-Darling river basin and the early 2011 floods in North-Western Australia