2,762 research outputs found
Block Motion Changes in Japan Triggered by the 2011 Great Tohoku Earthquake
Plate motions are governed by equilibrium between basal and edge forces.
Great earthquakes may induce differential static stress changes across tectonic
plates, enabling a new equilibrium state. Here we consider the torque balance
for idealized circular plates and find a simple scalar relationship for changes
in relative plate speed as a function of its size, upper mantle viscosity, and
coseismic stress changes. Applied to Japan, the 2011
Tohoku earthquake generated coseismic stresses of
~Pa that could have induced changes in motion of small (radius
~km) crustal blocks within Honshu. Analysis of time-dependent GPS
velocities, with corrections for earthquake cycle effects, reveals that plate
speeds may have changed by up to mm/yr between -year epochs
bracketing this earthquake, consistent with an upper mantle viscosity of Pas, suggesting that great earthquakes may modulate
motions of proximal crustal blocks at frequencies as high as ~Hz
Super-Interseismic Periods: Redefining Earthquake Recurrence
Precise geodetic measurements made over broad swaths of tectonically active regions record patterns of interseismic strain accumulation, providing key insights into the locus and timing of pending earthquakes. Recent studies of geodetic position time series, including that of Melnick et al. (2017), illustrate temporal variation in the pattern of interseismic deformation. These authors propose that the 2010 Mw = 8.8 Maule, Chile, earthquake enhanced coupling on the Andean subduction zone adjacent to the rupture, including on the portion of the megathrust that broke 5 years later in the Mw = 8.3 Illapel event
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Spatial Correlation of Interseismic Coupling and Coseismic Rupture Extent of the 2011 M = 9.0 Tohoku-oki Earthquake
Imaging the extent to which the rupture areas of great earthquakes coincide with regions of pre-seismic interplate coupling is central to understanding patterns of strain accumulation and release through the earthquake cycle. Both geodetic and seismic estimates of the coseismic rupture extent for the March 11, 2011 earthquake Tohoku-oki earthquake may be spatially correlated (0.26 ± 0.05 to 0.82 ± 0.05) with a region estimated to be partially to fully coupled in the interseismic period preceding the earthquake, though there is substantial variation in the estimated distribution and magnitude of coseismic slip. The ∼400 km-long region estimated to have slipped ≥4 m corresponds to an area of the subduction zone interface that was coupled at ≥30% of long-term plate convergence rate, with peak slip near a region coupled ≥80%. The northern termination of rupture is collocated with a region of relatively low (<20%) interseismic coupling near the epicenter of the 1994 Sanriku-oki earthquake, and near a region of potential long-term low coupling or ongoing slow slip. Slip on the subduction interface beneath the coastline (40–50 km depth) is best constrained by the land-based GPS data and least constrained on the shallowest portion of the plate interface due to the ∼230 km distance between geodetic observations and the Japan trench.Earth and Planetary Science
Spatial Correlation of Interseismic Coupling and Coseismic Rupture Extent of the 2011 MW=9.0 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake
Imaging the extent to which the rupture areas of great earthquakes coincide with regions of pre-seismic interplate coupling is central to understanding patterns of strain accumulation and release through the earthquake cycle. Both geodetic and seismic estimates of the coseismic rupture extent for the March 11, 2011 MW = 8.9–9.0 earthquake Tohoku-oki earthquake may be spatially correlated (0.26 ± 0.05 to 0.82 ± 0.05) with a region estimated to be partially to fully coupled in the interseismic period preceding the earthquake, though there is substantial variation in the estimated distribution and magnitude of coseismic slip. The ∼400 km-long region estimated to have slipped ≥4 m corresponds to an area of the subduction zone interface that was coupled at ≥30% of long-term plate convergence rate, with peak slip near a region coupled ≥80%. The northern termination of rupture is collocated with a region of relatively low (\u3c20%) interseismic coupling near the epicenter of the 1994 MW = 7.6 Sanriku-oki earthquake, and near a region of potential long-term low coupling or ongoing slow slip. Slip on the subduction interface beneath the coastline (40–50 km depth) is best constrained by the land-based GPS data and least constrained on the shallowest portion of the plate interface due to the ∼230 km distance between geodetic observations and the Japan trench
Investigating Strike-Slip Faulting Parallel to the Icelandic Plate Boundary Using Boundary Element Models
Most faults in Iceland strike roughly parallel to the divergent plate boundary, a part of the North American-Eurasian plate boundary, which would be expected to lead to primarily normal faulting. However, several studies have observed a significant component of rift-parallel strike-slip faulting in Iceland. To investigate these fault kinematics, we use the boundary element method to model fault slip and crustal stress patterns of the Icelandic tectonic system, including a spherical hotspot and uniaxial stress that represents rifting. On a network of faults, we estimate the slip required to relieve traction imposed by hotspot inflation and remote rifting stress and compare the model results with observed slip kinematics, crustal seismicity, and geodetic data. We note a good fit between model-predicted and observed deformation metrics, with both indicating significant components of normal and strike-slip faulting and consistency between recent data and longer-term records of geologic fault slip. Possible stress permutations between steeply plunging σ1 and σ2 axes are common in our models, suggesting that localized stress perturbations may impact strike-slip faulting. Some increases in model complexity, including older hotspot configurations and allowing fault opening to simulate dike intrusion, show improvement to model fit in select regions. This work provides new insight into the physical mechanisms driving faulting styles within Iceland away from the current active plate boundary, implying that a significant portion of observed strike-slip faulting is likely caused by the combined effects of tectonic rifting, hotspot impacts, and mechanical interactions across the fault network
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Geodetic Constraints on San Francisco Bay Area Fault Slip Rates and Potential Seismogenic Asperities on the Partially Creeping Hayward Fault
The Hayward fault in the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) is sometimes considered unusual among continental faults for exhibiting significant aseismic creep during the interseismic phase of the seismic cycle while also generating sufficient elastic strain to produce major earthquakes. Imaging the spatial variation in interseismic fault creep on the Hayward fault is complicated because of the interseismic strain accumulation associated with nearby faults in the SFBA, where the relative motion between the Pacific plate and the Sierra block is partitioned across closely spaced subparallel faults. To estimate spatially variable creep on the Hayward fault, we interpret geodetic observations with a three-dimensional kinematically consistent block model of the SFBA fault system. Resolution tests reveal that creep rate variations with a length scale of <15 km are poorly resolved below 7 km depth. In addition, creep at depth may be sensitive to assumptions about the kinematic consistency of fault slip rate models. Differential microplate motions result in a slip rate of 6.7 ± 0.8 mm/yr on the Hayward fault, and we image along-strike variations in slip deficit rate at ∼15 km length scales shallower than 7 km depth. Similar to previous studies, we identify a strongly coupled asperity with a slip deficit rate of up to 4 mm/yr on the central Hayward fault that is spatially correlated with the mapped surface trace of the 1868 Hayward earthquake and adjacent to gabbroic fault surfaces.Earth and Planetary Science
Total Variation Regularization of Geodetically and Geologically Constrained Block Models for the Western United States
Geodetic observations of interseismic deformation in the Western United States provide con- straints on microplate rotations, earthquake cycle processes, and slip partitioning across the Pacific–North America Plate boundary. These measurements may be interpreted using block models, in which the upper crust is divided into microplates bounded by faults that accumulate strain in a first-order approximation of earthquake cycle processes. The number and geometry of microplates are typically defined with boundaries representing a limited subset of the large number of potentially seismogenic faults. An alternative approach is to include a large number of potentially active faults bounding a dense array of microplates, and then algorithmically estimate the boundaries at which strain is localized. This approach is possible through the application of a total variation regularization (TVR) optimization algorithm, which simultaneously minimizes the L2 norm of data residuals and the L1 norm of the variation in the differential block motions. Applied to 3-D spherical block models, the TVR algorithm can be used to reduce the total variation between estimated rotation vectors, effectively grouping microplates that rotate together as larger blocks, and localizing fault slip on the boundaries of these larger block clusters. Here we develop a block model comprised of 137 microplates derived from published fault maps, and apply the TVR algorithm to identify the kinematically most important faults in the western United States. This approach reveals that of the 137 microplates considered, only 30 unique blocks are required to approximate deformation in the western United States at a residual level of \u3c2 mm yr−1
A Global Set of Subduction Zone Earthquake Scenarios and Recurrence Intervals Inferred From Geodetically Constrained Block Models of Interseismic Coupling Distributions
The past 100 years have seen the occurrence of five (Formula presented.) earthquakes and 94 (Formula presented.) earthquakes. Here we assess the potential for future great earthquakes using inferences of interseismic subduction zone coupling from a global block model incorporating both tectonic plate motions and earthquake cycle effects. Interseismic earthquake cycle effects are represented using a first-order quasistatic elastic approximation and include (Formula presented.) of interacting fault system area across the globe. We use estimated spatial variations in decadal-duration coupling at 15 subduction zones and the Himalayan range front to estimate the locations and magnitudes of potential seismic events using empirical scaling relationships relating coupled area to moment magnitude. As threshold coupling values increase, estimates of potential earthquake magnitudes decrease, but the total number of large earthquakes varies non-monotonically. These rupture scenarios include as many as 14 recent or potential (Formula presented.) earthquakes globally and up to 18 distinct (Formula presented.) events associated with a single subduction zone (South America). We also combine estimated slip deficit rates and potential event magnitudes to calculate recurrence intervals for large earthquake scenarios, finding that almost all potential earthquakes would have a recurrence time of less than 1,000 years
Global Plate Motions and Earthquake Cycle Effects
The rotations of tectonic plates provide a partial description of the total observed displacements at the Earth’s surface. The estimated number of kinematically distinct plates has increased from 12 in 1990 to 56 in 2010 as a result of the increase in the number of kinematic observables. At length scales \u3c1,000 km, rotation-only plate models are inaccurate because geodetic signals of long-term plate motions are complicated by earthquake cycle effects. Here we present results from a global block model that unifies large-scale plate motions and local earthquake cycle effects at plate boundaries. Incorporating the rotations of 307 distinct plates, elastic strain accumulation from 16 subduction zones and 1.59×107 km2 of fault system area, this model explains 19,664 interseismic GPS velocities at a resolution of 2.2 mm/year. Geodetically constrained fault slip deficit rates yield a cumulative global moment accumulation rate of 1.09 × 1022 N⋅m/year, 12% larger than the average annual coseismic moment release rate from 1900 to 2013. The potential contribution to the total moment rate budget can be estimated from the frequency distribution of the modeled fault slip-deficit rates, which follow an exponential distribution. Integrating this frequency distribution over all possible slip rates indicates that the geologic structures included in this reference global block model account for 98% of the global moment budget. Comparing our results with population distribution, we find that ∼50% of the world’s population lives within 200 km of an active fault with a slip rate \u3e2 mm/year
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