Changing Patterns of South African income distribution: Towards time series estimates of distribution and poverty

Research on income distribution in South Africa has, for obvious reasons, focused on inter-racial (inter-group) income distribution. Quite dramatic changes have occurred in inter-racial income distribution patterns since the 1970s, with the black share of income rising for the first time and at times exceeding the rise in their population share. This implies a narrowing inter-racial income gap. Data on income distribution remain scarce, so that it remains difficult to obtain the full picture about changes in income distribution. In particular, widening inequality within the black population has received much attention. Rises in black unemployment and in black wages have had inequality-inducing effects on black incomes. Is maldistribution of income between races now making way for maldistribution of income within race groups? Put differently, is inequality shifting from inter-group to intra-group inequality (from between group to within group inequality)? This paper pieces together information from various sources of data (censuses, household surveys, marketing surveys, published wage data series, etc.) to inform estimates of inter- and intra-group distribution over a longer time frame, in an effort to improve analysis of income inequality and poverty trends. These income distribution patterns also have considerable implications for the growth and evolution of the South African consumer market.income distribution, South Africa, time series, poverty

Lessons learnt from SACMEQII: South African student performance in regional context

In regional context, South African students benefit from above average levels of public and private education resources. However, their performance on international tests – including SACMEQII (Southern African Consortium for Monitoring Educational Quality, 2000) – is extremely weak. The first part of the paper positions South Africa within southern and eastern Africa on the basis of SACMEQII Grade 6 mathematics test scores. Hierarchical linear modelling techniques are then employed to model the relationship between socio-economic status (SES) and schooling in this highly unequal country. Three important drivers of inequity in test scores emerge: principal concern with monitoring student progress, teacher absenteeism and teacher quality. These interact with SES to give richer students a strong advantage.education quality, inequality, South Africa, Southern Africa, Hierarchical Linear Modelling

Orphans of the HIV/Aids epidemic: An impending crisis for South African development

Despite the fact that there are currently millions of HIV-infected people living in South Africa, the worst effects of the HIV/AIDS epidemic have yet to be felt. The most long lasting of these is the anticipated dramatic increase in orphanhood. This paper examines the extent of the impending orphan crisis in South Africa (predominantly using the ASSA2000 model), the impacts of orphanhood on children in HIV/AIDS affected communities, and the role of the Department of Social Development in addressing the issue. National government has committed itself to addressing the impacts of HIV/AIDS on orphanhood, and evidence of this commitment is sought in provincial welfare budgeting flows. Feasibility analysis is conducted to determine the extent of possible effective responses from the Department. Finally, the effects of intervention in the spread of the epidemic on the costs of providing AIDS orphans with a social safety net are considered.HIV/Aids, South Africa, orphans

Post-Apartheid South Africa: Poverty and Distribution Trends in an Era of Globalization

South Africa’s transition to democracy in 1994 created new possibilities for economic policy. Economic liberalization brought sustained, if unspectacular, growth that reversed the long decline in per capita incomes, but left its scars in much job shedding associated with business becoming internationally competitive. This accords with international evidence that trade liberalization takes time to realize positive employment effects. Disappointing employment growth in the face of an expanding labourforce fed rising unemployment. However, using poverty estimates from a combination of sources, this study demonstrates that poverty nevertheless declined quite substantially after the turn of the century. Poverty dominance testing shows this conclusion to be insensitive to the selection of poverty line or measure. But empirical analysis does not allow strong conclusions to be drawn on causal relationships between globalization and poverty trends.trade; labour; South Africa; globalization

Post-Apartheid South Africa: Poverty and Distribution Trends in an Era of Globalization

South Africa?s transition to democracy in 1994 created new possibilities for economic policy. Economic liberalization brought sustained, if unspectacular, growth that reversed the long decline in per capita incomes, but left its scars in much job shedding associated with business becoming internationally competitive. This accords with international evidence that trade liberalization takes time to realize positive employment effects. Disappointing employment growth in the face of an expanding labourforce fed rising unemployment. However, using poverty estimates from a combination of sources, this study demonstrates that poverty nevertheless declined quite substantially after the turn of the century. Poverty dominance testing shows this conclusion to be insensitive to the selection of poverty line or measure. But empirical analysis does not allow strong conclusions to be drawn on causal relationships between globalization and poverty trends. ...trade, labour, South Africa, globalization

Educational attainment and intergenerational social mobility in South Africa

To a large degree, the notoriously high levels of income inequality in South Africa have their roots in differential access to wage-earning opportunities in the labour market, which in turn are influenced by family background. This paper therefore investigates the role that parents’ education plays in children’s human capital accumulation. The study analyses patterns of educational attainment in South Africa during the period 1970-2001, asking whether intergenerational social mobility has improved. It tackles the issue in two ways, combining extensive descriptive analysis of progress in educational attainment with more a formal evaluation of intergenerational social mobility using indices constructed by Dahan and Gaviria (2001) and Behrman, Birdsall and Szekely (1998). Both types of analysis indicate that intergenerational social mobility within race groups improved over the period, with the indices suggesting that South African children are currently better able to take advantage of educational opportunities than the bulk of their peers in comparable countries. However, significant racial barriers remain in the quest to equalise educational opportunities across the board for South African children.Analysis of education, intergenerational mobility

Post-transition poverty trends based on an alternative data source

This paper analyses a previously unused source of data – the All Media and Product Survey (AMPS) – to arrive at alternative estimates of the post-transition poverty path. The motivations for using this non-official data source are twofold: concern over the comparability of the existing official post-transition datasets – the Income and Expenditure Survey (IES) and Population Census – and a desire to extend analysis of poverty trends beyond 2001. While official data sources are generally preferred for purposes of poverty analysis, the IES and Census collect data at long (five or ten year) intervals, and additional years pass before these datasets become available to the public. The expenditure data contained in the General Household Survey is available annually, although data are captured in a small number of categories that are not very conducive to analysis at the lower end of the income distribution. Analysis on AMPS data confirms the large decline in poverty implied by an increase of R18 billion (in 2000 Rand) in social grant payments between 2000 and 2004. The direction of this trend is consistent with recent research findings based on more frequently analysed data sources, including the work done by Agüero, Carter and May (2005), Seekings (2006), and Meth (2006).Poverty, Inequality, Income distribution Analysis, South Africa

A series of national accounts-consistent estimates of poverty and inequality in South Africa

This paper makes a unique contribution to the South African literature in combining data from an alternative source of household survey data – the All Media and Product Survey (AMPS) – with national accounts income trends for this country, in the recent tradition of research on the world distribution of income performed by Bhalla (2002), Karshenas (2003), Bourguignon and Morrisson (2002), Sala-i-Martin (2002a; 2002b), and Quah (2002), amongst others. Its usefulness lies in arriving at alternative estimates of post-transition poverty and inequality that are consistent with the story that national accounts and other official data collectively tell us about the path of the South African economy during the post-transition period. While the method of scaling survey distribution data by national accounts means is somewhat controversial, it is not clear that the distributional trends obtained using the post-transition sets of either the IESs or the Population Censuses are more reliable, given serious deficiencies in both sources of data. Adjusted distributions yield lower levels of poverty and a stronger decline in poverty during the second half of the period than the figures obtained from the raw AMPS data. While the levels of poverty obtained using adjusted income distributions are artificially low, the derived downward trend is supported by a number of official data sources.Poverty, Inequality, Income distribution Analysis, South Africa

Trends in poverty and inequality since the political transition

Using a constructed data series and another data series based on AMPS (the All Media and Products Survey), this paper explores trends in poverty and income distribution over the post-transition period. To steer clear of an unduly optimistic conclusion, assumptions are chosen that would tend to show the least decline in poverty. Whilst there were no strong trends in poverty for the period 1995 to 2000, both data series show a considerable decline in poverty after 2000, particularly in the period 2002-2004. Poverty dominance testing shows that this decline is independent of the poverty line chosen or whether the poverty headcount, the poverty ratio or the poverty severity ratio are used as measure. We find likely explanations for this strong and robust decline in poverty in the massive expansion of the social grant system as well as possibly in improved job creation in recent years. Whilst the collective income of the poor (using our definition of poverty) was only R27 billion in 2000, the grants (in constant 2000 Rand values) have expanded by R22 billion since. Even if the grants were not well targeted at the poor (and in the past they have been), a large proportion of this spending must have reached the poor, thus leaving little doubt that poverty must have declined substantially. However, there are limits to the expansion of the grant system as a means of poverty alleviation, pointing to the importance of economic growth with job creation for sustaining the decline in poverty.poverty, inequality, South Africa, employment