A Forest Sector Prototype Model - The Simplified Model Structure

This paper concentrates on a verbal and graphical description of the main elements and their linkages, of a prototype model which has been developed within IIASA's Forest Sector Project. This description creates the base for a computer model. The model consists of two forest sectors--one for the national forest sector which is being studied and one for competing forest sectors. Each forest sector covers all activities from timber growth to the consumption of end products as well as economic, technological, biological, and human aspects. The sector is built up by eight submodels or modules concerning 1) demand, 2) product market, 3) forest industry, 4) roundwood market, 5) forest management, 6) inventory of standing volume, 7) regulation of the forest sector, and 0) construction sector. In the product market, price and actual demand for forest industrial products (pulp, sawnwood, and panels) are defined depending on domestic demand and supply as well as import and export opportunities. The same is done in the roundwood market module but for roundwood. Supply of forest industry products is defined in the forest industry module as well as demand for wood raw material. Supply of wood raw material is calculated in the forest management module. The inventory module keeps track of the biological possibilities for supplying roundwood. Investments in new industrial capacity and harvesting capacity can be regulated through the regulation module. The capital sector module defines investment costs and efficiency (output/input ratio). The feedback mechanisms between modules is important in the model structure, as well as inside individual modules. Exogenous variables are GDP, size of population, prices of substitutes, exchange rate, prices of input factors, and technological development

The Austrian Sawmill Industry - Some Possible Futures

The Austrian forest industry consumed about 14.5 million m3/u.b. industrial roundwood in 1980 to compare with a total domestic cutting of 13 million m3/u.b. The dominating primary manufacturer is the sawmilling industry which in 1980 consumed about 70% of the total industrial wood consumption. About 65% of the sawnwood production is exported. In this paper, four scenarios are presented for the Austrian saw mills. These scenarios show that future problems such as (i) overcapacity; (ii) insufficient supply of wood raw material and (iii) low profitability -- may arise. These problems could be solved by (1) intensified marketing, (2) intensified domestic cutting, (3) long-term import agreements for wood, and (4) a continued modernization of the industry

Dynamics of the Forest Sector: Problems and Policies

The dynamic behaviors of the forest sector are generated by the acting together of economic, ecological, social, and biological parts, characteristics and by geographical distribution such as of the forest industrial complexes, of the resources, and of the customers. These dynamics are influenced by and in turn are influencing factors such as wood availability, possible uses of wood, processing technologies, and economic activities. The first chapter of this paper deals with how to depict and how to evaluate such interrelationships and changes causing both problems and opportunities for the forest sector. In the discussion of the uncertainties in the future of the forest sector and of possible actions, it is necessary to specify different possible future dynamic developments for the above mentioned factors. This is done in some scenarios in the second chapter. The impacts of these factors and their future dynamics impacts can be evaluated with respect to cost competitiveness and wood availability for the individual company as well as for the structural change of the whole sector, for example, with respect to the location of the forest industry and the characteristics and distribution of the forest resources. A set of scenarios as a base for discussions with representatives of the sector can serve to find out the desirability of those developments and to help specify actions to change the undesired developments. At the end of the paper some actions are listed to deal with poor cost competitiveness and shortage of wood

Mathematical Formulation of a Forest Sector Prototype Model

This paper gives a mathematical description of a long-term prototype model developed as a part of IIASA's Forest Sector Project. The model is developed for analyzing in a 20-30 years perspective, the impact of cost competitiveness and wood availability on the structural change of the forest sector under investigation. The model is intended to be used by decision makers at strategic discussions about possible futures of the forest sector. The model consists of two symmetric competing forest sectors--one for the national forest sector under investigation; and one for competing forest sectors of other countries. Each forest sector covers all activities ranging from timber growth to the consumption of forest industrial products such as paper (pulp), sawnwood and panels. This is represented in the model through eight modules: Demand of products, product market, forest industry, roundwood market, forest management, inventory of standing volume, construction sector and regulation of the forest sector. In this paper each of the modules is described and the mathematical equations are presented

Strategic Planning of the Forest Sector: Summary Report of a Nordic Meeting

Strategic planning of the forest sector in Nordic countries focuses on the major long-term problems and issues which are or will be confronting forestry and the forest industry. In this paper these problems and issues are described. Examples of strategic planning and the use of models and computers in the forest industry are given. It can be concluded that current forest sector modeling is of major importance for strategic planning of the forest industry in Nordic countries

Problems and Prospects of Developing Countries in Forestry and Wood-Processing Industries. Report from an IIASA/UNIDO Workshop

This paper reports in a summary form on the discussions during a workshop organized by IIASA and UNIDO in January 1983. The workshop treated problems and prospects relating to developing countries in the sectors of forestry and wood-processing industries. The results of the workshop will be used in IIASA's project "Structural Change in the Forest Sector" and in UNIDO's work on its world-wide study on wood and wood processing industries. The invited participants came mainly from developing countries and from the two institutions mentioned. The issues raised during the meeting are summarized systematically in Figure 2. The main concern of the meeting related to the sustainability of the wood resources, over-exploitation and depletion and suitable counter-balancing measures, such as afforestation, reforestation, and more efficient use of available resources. Trade patterns were also discussed. A global trade model for forestry industry products was presented