Dengue and climate change in Australia: predictions for the future should incorporate knowledge from the past

•Dengue transmission in Australia is currently restricted to Queensland, where the vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is established. Locally acquired infections have been reported only from urban areas in the north-east of the state, where the vector is most abundant. •Considerable attention has been drawn to the potential impact of climate change on dengue distribution within Australia, with projections for substantial rises in incidence and distribution associated with increasing temperatures. •However, historical data show that much of Australia has previously sustained both the vector mosquito and dengue viruses. Although current vector distribution is restricted to Queensland, the area inhabited by A. aegypti is larger than the disease-transmission areas, and is not restricted by temperature (or vector-control programs); thus, it is unlikely that rising temperatures alone will bring increased vector or virus distribution. •Factors likely to be important to dengue and vector distribution in the future include increased dengue activity in Asian and Pacific nations that would raise rates of virus importation by travellers, importation of vectors via international ports to regions without A. aegypti, higher rates of domestic collection and storage of water that would provide habitat in urban areas, and growing human populations in northern Australia. •Past and recent successful control initiatives in Australia lend support to the idea that well resourced and functioning surveillance programs, and effective public health intervention capabilities, are essential to counter threats from dengue and other mosquito-borne diseases. •Models projecting future activity of dengue (or other vector-borne disease) with climate change should carefully consider the local historical and contemporary data on the ecology and distribution of the vector and local virus transmission

Desert dust and anthropogenic aerosol interactions in the Community Climate System Model coupled-carbon-climate model

© The Authors, 2011. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. The definitive version was published in Biogeosciences 8 (2011): 387-414, doi:10.5194/bg-8-387-2011.Coupled-carbon-climate simulations are an essential tool for predicting the impact of human activity onto the climate and biogeochemistry. Here we incorporate prognostic desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into the CCSM3.1 coupled carbon-climate model and explore the resulting interactions with climate and biogeochemical dynamics through a series of transient anthropogenic simulations (20th and 21st centuries) and sensitivity studies. The inclusion of prognostic aerosols into this model has a small net global cooling effect on climate but does not significantly impact the globally averaged carbon cycle; we argue that this is likely to be because the CCSM3.1 model has a small climate feedback onto the carbon cycle. We propose a mechanism for including desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into a simple carbon-climate feedback analysis to explain the results of our and previous studies. Inclusion of aerosols has statistically significant impacts on regional climate and biogeochemistry, in particular through the effects on the ocean nitrogen cycle and primary productivity of altered iron inputs from desert dust deposition.This work was done under the auspices of NASA NNG06G127G, NSF grants 0748369, 0932946, 0745961 and 0832782. The work of C. J. was supported by the Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101)

Carbon-nitrogen interactions regulate climate-carbon cycle feedbacks : results from an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

© 2009 The Authors. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. The definitive version was published in Biogeosciences 6 (2009): 2099-2120, doi:10.5194/bg-6-2099-2009Inclusion of fundamental ecological interactions between carbon and nitrogen cycles in the land component of an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) leads to decreased carbon uptake associated with CO2 fertilization, and increased carbon uptake associated with warming of the climate system. The balance of these two opposing effects is to reduce the fraction of anthropogenic CO2 predicted to be sequestered in land ecosystems. The primary mechanism responsible for increased land carbon storage under radiatively forced climate change is shown to be fertilization of plant growth by increased mineralization of nitrogen directly associated with increased decomposition of soil organic matter under a warming climate, which in this particular model results in a negative gain for the climate-carbon feedback. Estimates for the land and ocean sink fractions of recent anthropogenic emissions are individually within the range of observational estimates, but the combined land plus ocean sink fractions produce an airborne fraction which is too high compared to observations. This bias is likely due in part to an underestimation of the ocean sink fraction. Our results show a significant growth in the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions over the coming century, attributable in part to a steady decline in the ocean sink fraction. Comparison to experimental studies on the fate of radio-labeled nitrogen tracers in temperate forests indicates that the model representation of competition between plants and microbes for new mineral nitrogen resources is reasonable. Our results suggest a weaker dependence of net land carbon flux on soil moisture changes in tropical regions, and a stronger positive growth response to warming in those regions, than predicted by a similar AOGCM implemented without land carbon-nitrogen interactions. We expect that the between-model uncertainty in predictions of future atmospheric CO2 concentration and associated anthropogenic climate change will be reduced as additional climate models introduce carbon-nitrogen cycle interactions in their land components.This work was supported in part by NASA Earth Science Enterprise, Terrestrial Ecology Program, grant #W19,953 to P. E. Thornton. Support was provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) through the NCAR Community Climate System Modeling program, and through the NCAR Biogeosciences program. Additional support was provided by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research. I. Fung, S. Doney, N. Mahowald, and J. Randerson acknowledge support from National Science Foundation, Atmospheric Sciences Division, through the Carbon and Water Initiative

Glove-Enabled Computer Operations (GECO): Design and Testing of an Extravehicular Activity Glove Adapted for Human-Computer Interface

The Glove-Enabled Computer Operations (GECO) system enables an extravehicular activity (EVA) glove to be dual-purposed as a human-computer interface device. This paper describes the design and human participant testing of a right-handed GECO glove in a pressurized glove box. As part of an investigation into the usability of the GECO system for EVA data entry, twenty participants were asked to complete activities including (1) a Simon Says Games in which they attempted to duplicate random sequences of targeted finger strikes and (2) a Text Entry activity in which they used the GECO glove to enter target phrases in two different virtual keyboard modes. In a within-subjects design, both activities were performed both with and without vibrotactile feedback. Participants' mean accuracies in correctly generating finger strikes with the pressurized glove were surprisingly high, both with and without the benefit of tactile feedback. Five of the subjects achieved mean accuracies exceeding 99% in both conditions. In Text Entry, tactile feedback provided a statistically significant performance benefit, quantified by characters entered per minute, as well as reduction in error rate. Secondary analyses of responses to a NASA Task Loader Index (TLX) subjective workload assessments reveal a benefit for tactile feedback in GECO glove use for data entry. This first-ever investigation of employment of a pressurized EVA glove for human-computer interface opens up a wide range of future applications, including text "chat" communications, manipulation of procedures/checklists, cataloguing/annotating images, scientific note taking, human-robot interaction, and control of suit and/or other EVA systems

Joint analysis of stressors and ecosystem services to enhance restoration effectiveness

With increasing pressure placed on natural systems by growing human populations, both scientists and resource managers need a better understanding of the relationships between cumulative stress from human activities and valued ecosystem services. Societies often seek to mitigate threats to these services through large-scale, costly restoration projects, such as the over one billion dollar Great Lakes Restoration Initiative currently underway. To help inform these efforts, we merged high-resolution spatial analyses of environmental stressors with mapping of ecosystem services for all five Great Lakes. Cumulative ecosystem stress is highest in near-shore habitats, but also extends offshore in Lakes Erie, Ontario, and Michigan. Variation in cumulative stress is driven largely by spatial concordance among multiple stressors, indicating the importance of considering all stressors when planning restoration activities. In addition, highly stressed areas reflect numerous different combinations of stressors rather than a single suite of problems, suggesting that a detailed understanding of the stressors needing alleviation could improve restoration planning. We also find that many important areas for fisheries and recreation are subject to high stress, indicating that ecosystem degradation could be threatening key services. Current restoration efforts have targeted high-stress sites almost exclusively, but generally without knowledge of the full range of stressors affecting these locations or differences among sites in service provisioning. Our results demonstrate that joint spatial analysis of stressors and ecosystem services can provide a critical foundation for maximizing social and ecological benefits from restoration investments. www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1213841110/-/DCSupplementa

Murray Valley encephalitis virus surveillance and control initiatives in Australia.

Mechanisms for monitoring Murray Valley encephalitis (MVE) virus activity include surveillance of human cases, surveillance for activity in sentinel animals, monitoring of mosquito vectors and monitoring of weather conditions. The monitoring of human cases is only one possible trigger for public health action and the additional surveillance systems are used in concert to signal the risk of human disease, often before the appearance of human cases. Mosquito vector surveillance includes mosquito trapping for speciation and enumeration of mosquitoes to monitor population sizes and relative composition. Virus isolation from mosquitoes can also be undertaken. Monitoring of weather conditions and vector surveillance determines whether there is a potential for MVE activity to occur. Virus isolation from trapped mosquitoes is necessary to define whether MVE is actually present, but is difficult to deliver in a timely fashion in some jurisdictions. Monitoring of sentinel animals indicates whether MVE transmission to vertebrates is actually occurring. Meteorological surveillance can assist in the prediction of potential MVE virus activity by signalling conditions that have been associated with outbreaks of Murray Valley encephalitis in humans in the past. Predictive models of MVE virus activity for south-eastern Australia have been developed, but due to the infrequency of outbreaks, are yet to be demonstrated as useful for the forecasting of major outbreaks. Surveillance mechanisms vary across the jurisdictions. Surveillance of human disease occurs in all States and Territories by reporting of cases to health authorities. Sentinel flocks of chickens are maintained in 4 jurisdictions (Western Australia, the Northern Territory, Victoria and New South Wales) with collaborations between Western Australia and the Northern Territory. Mosquito monitoring complements the surveillance of sentinel animals in these jurisdictions. In addition, other mosquito monitoring programs exist in other States (including South Australia and Queensland). Public health control measures may include advice to the general public and mosquito management programs to reduce the numbers of both mosquito larvae and adult vectors. Strategic plans for public health action in the event of MVE virus activity are currently developed or being developed in New South Wales, the Northern Territory, South Australia, Western Australia and Victoria. A southern tri-State agreement exists between health departments of New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia and the Commonwealth Department of Health and Aged Care. All partners have agreed to co-operate and provide assistance in predicting and combatting outbreaks of mosquito-borne disease in south-eastern Australia. The newly formed National Arbovirus Advisory Committee is a working party providing advice to the Communicable Diseases Network Australia on arbovirus surveillance and control. Recommendations for further enhancement of national surveillance for Murray Valley encephalitis are described

Atmospheric carbon dioxide variability in the Community Earth System Model : evaluation and transient dynamics during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 26 (2013): 4447–4475, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00589.1.Changes in atmospheric CO2 variability during the twenty-first century may provide insight about ecosystem responses to climate change and have implications for the design of carbon monitoring programs. This paper describes changes in the three-dimensional structure of atmospheric CO2 for several representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) using the Community Earth System Model–Biogeochemistry (CESM1-BGC). CO2 simulated for the historical period was first compared to surface, aircraft, and column observations. In a second step, the evolution of spatial and temporal gradients during the twenty-first century was examined. The mean annual cycle in atmospheric CO2 was underestimated for the historical period throughout the Northern Hemisphere, suggesting that the growing season net flux in the Community Land Model (the land component of CESM) was too weak. Consistent with weak summer drawdown in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes, simulated CO2 showed correspondingly weak north–south and vertical gradients during the summer. In the simulations of the twenty-first century, CESM predicted increases in the mean annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 and larger horizontal gradients. Not only did the mean north–south gradient increase due to fossil fuel emissions, but east–west contrasts in CO2 also strengthened because of changing patterns in fossil fuel emissions and terrestrial carbon exchange. In the RCP8.5 simulation, where CO2 increased to 1150 ppm by 2100, the CESM predicted increases in interannual variability in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes of up to 60% relative to present variability for time series filtered with a 2–10-yr bandpass. Such an increase in variability may impact detection of changing surface fluxes from atmospheric observations.The CESM project is supported by the National Science Foundation and the Office of Science (BER) of the U.S. Department of Energy. Computing resources were provided by the Climate Simulation Laboratory at NCAR’s Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL), sponsored by the National Science Foundation and other agencies. G.K.A. acknowledges support of a NOAA Climate and Global Change postdoctoral fellowship. J.T.R., N.M.M., S.C.D., K.L., and J.K.M. acknowledge support of Collaborative Research: Improved Regional and Decadal Predictions of the Carbon Cycle (NSF AGS-1048827, AGS-1021776,AGS-1048890). TheHIPPO Programwas supported byNSF GrantsATM-0628575,ATM-0628519, and ATM-0628388 to Harvard University, University of California (San Diego), and by University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, University of Colorado/ CIRES, by the NCAR and by the NOAAEarth System Research Laboratory. Sunyoung Park, Greg Santoni, Eric Kort, and Jasna Pittman collected data during HIPPO. The ACME project was supported by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC02- 05CH11231 as part of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM), the ARM Aerial Facility, and the Terrestrial EcosystemScience Program. TCCON measurements at Eureka were made by the Canadian Network for Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (CANDAC) with additional support from the Canadian Space Agency. The Lauder TCCON program was funded by the New Zealand Foundation for Research Science and Technology contracts CO1X0204, CO1X0703, and CO1X0406. Measurements at Darwin andWollongong were supported by Australian Research Council Grants DP0879468 and DP110103118 and were undertaken by David Griffith, Nicholas Deutscher, and Ronald Macatangay. We thank Pauli Heikkinen, Petteri Ahonen, and Esko Kyr€o of the Finnish Meteorological Institute for contributing the Sodankyl€a TCCON data. Measurements at Park Falls, Lamont, and Pasadena were supported byNASAGrant NNX11AG01G and the NASA Orbiting Carbon Observatory Program. Data at these sites were obtained by Geoff Toon, Jean- Francois Blavier, Coleen Roehl, and Debra Wunch.2014-01-0

Vectorial capacity and vector control: reconsidering sensitivity to parameters for malaria elimination

Background: Major gains have been made in reducing malaria transmission in many parts of the world, principally by scaling-up coverage with long-lasting insecticidal nets and indoor residual spraying. Historically, choice of vector control intervention has been largely guided by a parameter sensitivity analysis of George Macdonald's theory of vectorial capacity that suggested prioritizing methods that kill adult mosquitoes. While this advice has been highly successful for transmission suppression, there is a need to revisit these arguments as policymakers in certain areas consider which combinations of interventions are required to eliminate malaria.Methods and Results: Using analytical solutions to updated equations for vectorial capacity we build on previous work to show that, while adult killing methods can be highly effective under many circumstances, other vector control methods are frequently required to fill effective coverage gaps. These can arise due to pre-existing or developing mosquito physiological and behavioral refractoriness but also due to additive changes in the relative importance of different vector species for transmission. Furthermore, the optimal combination of interventions will depend on the operational constraints and costs associated with reaching high coverage levels with each intervention.Conclusions: Reaching specific policy goals, such as elimination, in defined contexts requires increasingly non-generic advice from modelling. Our results emphasize the importance of measuring baseline epidemiology, intervention coverage, vector ecology and program operational constraints in predicting expected outcomes with different combinations of interventions.<br/

Ecological landscape elements: long-term monitoring in Great Britain, the Countryside Survey 1978-2007 and beyond

The Countryside Survey (CS) of Great Britain (GB) provides a unique and statistically robust series of datasets, consisting of an extensive set of repeated ecological measurements at a national scale, covering a time span of 29 years. CS was first undertaken in 1978 to provide a baseline for ecological and land use change monitoring in the rural environment of GB, following a stratified random design, based on 1 km squares. Originally, eight random 1 km squares were drawn from each of 32 environmental classes, thus comprising 256 sample squares in the 1978 survey. The number of these sites increased to 382 in 1984, 506 in 1990, 569 in 1998 and 591 in 2007. Detailed information regarding vegetation types and land use was mapped in all five surveys, allowing reporting by defined standard habitat classifications. Additionally, point and linear landscape features (such as trees and hedgerows) are available from all surveys after 1978. From these stratified, randomly located sample squares, information can be converted into national estimates, with associated error terms. Other data, relating to soils, freshwater and vegetation, were also sampled on analogous dates. However, the present paper describes only the surveys of landscape features and habitats. The resulting datasets provide a unique, comprehensive, quantitative ecological coverage of extent and change in these features in GB. Basic results are presented and their implications discussed. However, much opportunity for further analyses remains. Data from each of the survey years are available via the following DOIs: Landscape area data 1978: https://doi.org/10.5285/86c017ba-dc62-46f0-ad13-c862bf31740e, 1984: https://doi.org/10.5285/b656bb43-448d-4b2c-aade-7993aa243ea3, 1990: https://doi.org/10.5285/94f664e5-10f2-4655-bfe6-44d745f5dca7, 1998: https://doi.org/10.5285/1e050028-5c55-42f4-a0ea-c895d827b824, and 2007: https://doi.org/10.5285/bf189c57-61eb-4339-a7b3-d2e81fdde28d; Landscape linear feature data 1984: https://doi.org/10.5285/a3f5665c-94b2-4c46-909e-a98be97857e5, 1990: https://doi.org/10.5285/311daad4-bc8c-485a-bc8a-e0d054889219, 1998: https://doi.org/10.5285/8aaf6f8c-c245-46bb-8a2a-f0db012b2643 and 2007: https://doi.org/10.5285/e1d31245-4c0a-4dee-b36c-b23f1a697f88, Landscape point feature data 1984: https://doi.org/10.5285/124b872e-036e-4dd3-8316-476b5f42c16e, 1990: https://doi.org/10.5285/1481bc63-80d7-4d18-bcba-8804aa0a9e1b, 1998: https://doi.org/10.5285/ed10944f-40c8-4913-b3f5-13c8e844e153 and 2007: https://doi.org/10.5285/55dc5fd7-d3f7-4440-b8a7-7187f8b0550b

Replenishing Age-Related Decline of IRAK-M Expression in Retinal Pigment Epithelium Attenuates Outer Retinal Degeneration

Unchecked, chronic inflammation is a constitutive component of age-related diseases, including age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Here we identified interleukin-1 receptor-associated kinase (IRAK)-M as a key immunoregulator in retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) that declines with age. Rare genetic variants of IRAK-M increased the likelihood of AMD. IRAK-M expression in RPE declined with age or oxidative stress and was further reduced in AMD. IRAK-M-deficient mice exhibited increased incidence of outer retinal degeneration at earlier ages, which was further exacerbated by oxidative stressors. The absence of IRAK-M disrupted RPE cell homeostasis, including compromised mitochondrial function, cellular senescence, and aberrant cytokine production. IRAK-M overexpression protected RPE cells against oxidative or immune stressors. Subretinal delivery of AAV-expressing IRAK-M rescued light-induced outer retinal degeneration in wild-type mice and attenuated age-related spontaneous retinal degeneration in IRAK-M-deficient mice. Our data support that replenishment of IRAK-M expression may redress dysregulated pro-inflammatory processes in AMD, thereby treating degeneration