Implementing means-tested welfare systems in the United States

While targeting can effectively channel resources to the poor, implementation details matter tremendously to distributive outcomes. Several key factors affect performance, including: data collection processes; information management; household assessment mechanisms; institutional arrangements; and monitoring and oversight mechanisms. This report conducts an in-depth assessment of key design and implementation factors and their potential impact on outcomes for the household targeting system used in the United States to target social programs to the poor and vulnerable.

Euro-Productivity and Euro-Jobs since the 1960s: Which Institutions Really Mattered?

How have labor market institutions and welfare-state transfers affected jobs and productivity in Western Europe, relative to industrialized Pacific Rim countries? Orthodox criticisms of European government institutions are right in some cases and wrong in others. Protectionist labor-market policies such as employee protection laws seem to have become more costly since about 1980, not through overall employment effects, but through the net human-capital cost of protecting senior male workers at the expense of women and youth. Product-market regulations in core sectors may also have reduced GDP, though here the evidence is less robust. By contrast, high general tax levels have shed the negative influence they might have had in the 1960s and 1970s. Similarly, other institutions closer to the core of the welfare state have caused no net harm to European jobs and growth. The welfare state%u2019s tax-based social transfers and coordinated wage bargaining have not harmed either employment or GDP. Even unemployment benefits do not have robustly negative effects.

The Curious Dawn of American Public Schools

Three factors help to explain why school enrollments in the Northern United States were higher than those in the South and in most of Europe by 1850. One was affordability: the northern states had higher real incomes, cheaper teachers, and greater local tax support. The second was the greater autonomy of local governments. The third was the greater diffusion of voting power among the citizenry in much of the North, especially in rural communities. The distribution of local political voice appears to be a robust predictor of tax support and enrollments, both within and between regions.

Risk and vulnerability in Guatemala: a quantitative and qualitative assessment

This study combines quantitative data from the Living Standards Measurement Study and qualitative information from an in-depth qualitative study of poverty and exclusion conducted in 10 villages in Guatemala. Both data sources were designed to capture issues related to vulnerability, risks, and risk management. The quantitative survey included a risks and shocks module, in which households were asked to report if they had experienced a shock during the previous 12 months, using precoded questions for 28 economic, natural, social/political, and life-cycle shocks. These shocks were classified ex ante into covariant and idiosyncratic shocks. Households also reported: (1) whether these shocks triggered a reduction or loss of their income or wealth; (2) the main strategy that they used to cope with their welfare loss; (3) if they had succeeded in reversing the reduction or loss in their welfare by the time of the survey, and (4) the estimated time that had elapsed until successful resolution of the situation. Information on covariant shocks was also collected from the community questionnaire at the survey cluster level. The vulnerability assessment includes several types of analysis of shocks and their impact, including (1) factor analysis to understand the correlation structure or"bunching"of shocks; (2) a multivariate logistic model to examine the association between a household's characteristics and location and the probability that it reports a shock or incurs wealth and income losses due to the shock and the probability that it has recovered from the negative impact of the shock by the time of the interview; (3) nonparametric density estimation to estimate the counterfactual density of consumption or income; (4) multiple regression analysis to estimate the cost of shocks; (5) propensity score matching to estimate the cost of shocks; and (6) multiple regression analysis toestimate vulnerability to consumption poverty.Poverty Assessment,Environmental Economics&Policies,Health Economics&Finance,Social Risk Management,Services&Transfers to Poor

On cascade decays of squarks at the LHC in NLO QCD

In this paper we present an analysis at NLO of the contribution from squark-squark production to the experimental signature 2j + 2l + missing E_T (+X) with opposite-sign same flavor leptons, taking into account decays and experimental cuts. We consider the case in which one squark decays directly into the lightest neutralino chi^0_1 and the other one into the second lightest neutralino and subsequently into l^+l^-chi^0_1 via an intermediate slepton. On one hand we study effects of the NLO corrections on invariant mass distributions which can be used for future parameter determination. On the other hand we analyze the impact on predictions for cut-and-count searches using this experimental signature.Comment: 21 pages, 10 figure

Reforming Brazil's Cadastro Unico to improve the targeting of the Bolsa Familia Program

This case study is part of six country case study reports that were commissioned in 2003 by the World Bank specifically for the purposes of a summary report on the design and implementation of household targeting systems in the following countries: Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Brazil and the United States. The report was prepared at the request of officials from the Ministry of Social Assistance. It seeks to examine Brazil's main existing beneficiary registry and selection mechanism. While targeting can effectively channel resources to the poor, implementation details matter tremendously to distributive outcomes. Several key factors affect performance, including: data collection processes; information management; household assessment mechanisms; institutional arrangements; and monitoring and oversight mechanisms. This report conducts an in-depth assessment of key design and implementation factors and their potential impact on outcomes for the household targeting system Cadastro Unico used in Brazil to target social programs to the poor and vulnerable.

Measuring Ancient Inequality

Is inequality largely the result of the Industrial Revolution? Or, were pre-industrial incomes and life expectancies as unequal as they are today? For want of sufficient data, these questions have not yet been answered. This paper infers inequality for 14 ancient, pre-industrial societies using what are known as social tables, stretching from the Roman Empire 14 AD, to Byzantium in 1000, to England in 1688, to Nueva España around 1790, to China in 1880 and to British India in 1947. It applies two new concepts in making those assessments – what we call the inequality possibility frontier and the inequality extraction ratio. Rather than simply offering measures of actual inequality, we compare the latter with the maximum feasible inequality (or surplus) that could have been extracted by the elite. The results, especially when compared with modern poor countries, give new insights in to the connection between inequality and economic development in the very long run.Inequality possibility frontier; pre-industrial inequality; history

Does Globalization Make the World More Unequal?

The world economy has become more unequal over the last two centuries. Since within- country inequality exhibits no ubiquitous trend, it follows that virtually all of the observed rise in world income inequality has been driven by widening gaps between nations, while almost none of it has driven by widening gaps within nations. Meanwhile, the world economy has become much more globally integrated over the past two centuries. If correlation meant causation, these facts would imply that globalization has raised inequality between nations, but that it has had no clear effect on inequality within nations. This paper argues that the likely impact of globalization on world inequality has been very different from what these simple correlations suggest. Globalization probably mitigated rising inequality between participating nations. The nations that gained the most from globalization are those poor ones that changed their policies to exploit it, while the ones that gained the least did not, or were too isolated to do so. The effect of globalization on inequality within nations has gone both ways, but here too those who have lost the most from globalization typically have been the excluded non-participants. In any case far too small to explain the observed long run rise in world inequality.