The Search for Co-Integrat1on Between Money, Pr1ces and Income: Low Frequency Ev1dence From the Turk1sh Economy

In this paper, we aim to test the empirical validity of the QTM relationship for the Turkish economy. Using some contemporaneous time series estimation techniques, our estimation results reveal that stationarity characteristics of the velocities of currency in circulation and the broad money aggregate in the economy cannot be rejected through a quantity theoretical co-integrating long-term variable space. We find that there exists an about one-to-one proportionality between money and prices and money and real income, and that exogeneity of money cannot be rejected for the currency in circulation in the economy. But, the exception here comes from the broad monetary aggregate used in the QTM equation such that money seems to be endogenous as for the long-term variable space.Money, Prices, Income, Quantity Theory of Money, Co-integration, Longspan

The search for co-integration between money, prices and income: low frequency evidence from the Turkish economy

In this paper, we aim to test the empirical validity of the QTM relationship for the Turkish economy. Using some contemporaneous time series estimation techniques, our estimation results reveal that stationarity characteristics of the velocities of currency in circulation and the broad money aggregate in the economy cannot be rejected through a quantity theoretical co-integrating long-term variable space. We find that there exists an about one-to-one proportionality between money and prices and money and real income, and that the exogeneity of money cannot be rejected for the currency in circulation in the economy. But, the exception here comes from the broad monetary aggregate used in the QTM equation such that money seems to be endogenous as for the long-term variable space.Money ; Prices ; Income ; Quantity Theory of Money ; Co-integration ; Long-span Data ; Turkish Data ;

Exchange rate determination of TL/US$: a co-integration approach

In our paper, we investigate exchange rate determination mechanism of TL/US$ for the 1987Q1-2006Q4 period using quarterly observations. Following a large literature review, we first highlight various approaches explaining monetary model exchange rate determination based on economic fundamentals, and then, construct an empirical model revealing both long-run stationary relationships and short-run dynamic adjustment processes of the nominal exchange rate for the Turkish economy. Our findings employing multivariate Johansen-Juselius type co-integrating approach indicate that nominal exchange rate is co-integrated with the fundamentals suggested by economics theory. Besides, short-run deviations from the fundamental-based equilibrium course of the nominal exchange rate have permanent effects on the long-run equilibrium exchange rate, and so have been stemmed from the existence of some form of hysteresis effects dominated in the nominal exchange rate.Exchange Rates ; Sticky Price Monetary Model ; Flexible Price Monetary ; Economic Fundamentals ; Randow Walk ; Co-integration ; Hysteresis ; Turkish Economy ;

A small scaled business-cycle analysis of the Turkish economy: some counter-cyclical evidence using new income series

In this paper, a small scaled business cycle analysis is tried to be conducted for the Turkish economy. For this purpose we try to extract the knowledge of cyclical correlations between real income and prices/inflation considering 1998: 100 based new income series data and then examine pro- or counter-cyclical characteristics of these aggregates. Our estimation results indicate that both deflator based price level and inflation have a counter-cyclical relationship with real output in a way supporting what the supply-driven business cycle models bring out. To further examine the direction of the relationship between the cyclical components of price level/inflation and real income, we apply to the generalized impulse response analysis. The results verify that there exists a data consistent strong negative interaction between real output and price level/inflation. Considering all these findings, we conclude that no credibility must be attributed to the discretionary demand-driven Keynesian policies to stabilize the effects of the business cycles witnessed by the Turkish economy and that the policies permitting to supply shocks which will lead to a negative interaction between output and prices, rather, must have been of a special importance in the eyes of economic agents and policy makers.Inflation; Output; Business Cycles; Filtering/Decomposing; Counter-Cyclical Prices/Inflation; Generalized Impulse Response Analysis; Turkish Economy;

Threshold GARCH modeling of the inflation & inflation uncertainty relationship: historical evidence from the Turkish economy

In this paper, the preceding / causal relationships between inflation and inflation uncertainty have been tried to be examined for the Turkish economy. Dealing with the information content of this relationship, we estimate that positive inflationary shocks are associated with statistically significant and quantitatively larger levels of inflation uncertainty than are negative shocks. Our estimation results indicate that inflation in fact leads to inflation uncertainty in line with the Friedman-Ball hypotheses. However, our findings contradict the Cukierman-Meltzer hypotheses that inflation uncertainty leads to inflation in a positive way. We find that the larger the inflation uncertainty the lower would likely to be the level of inflation.Inflation; Inflation Uncertainty; Threshold GARCH Modeling; Granger Causality Analysis; Turkish Economy;

An empirical analysis of Turkish inflation (1988-2004): some non-monetarist estimations

The main purpose in this paper is to investigate the determinants of the inflationary process in the Turkish economy. For this purpose, based on a some potential consequential reasons, a vast literature is tried to be investigated on the Turkish inflation, and a model attempt on inflation phenomenon is estimated. The results obtained support the view of cost-push inflation. Also the factors resulting from public sector pricing behavior and also the price inertia phenomenon are estimated as the other main sources of inflationary process under the estimation period 1988-2004, rather than the demand-pull monetary factors.Inflation ; Turkish Economy ; Var Modelling ;

Identification of ‘pull’ & ‘push’ factors for the portfolio flows: SVAR evidence from the Turkish economy

In this paper, the determinants of the portfolio based capital flows are examined for the Turkish economy. Following the structural vector autoregression methodology, the estimation results reveal that the ‘push’ factors based on the external developments for the Turkish economy have a dominant role in explaining the behavior of the portfolio flows. Further, the domestic real interest rate as one of the main ‘pull’ factors has been found in a negative dynamic relationship with the portfolio flows. This result is attributed to that the dynamic course of the portfolio flows should not be related to the excess return possibilities of the real interest structure of the Turkish economy.Portfolio Flows; SVAR Analysis; Turkish Economy;

Testing quantity theory of money for the Turkish economy

In this paper, it is tried to test the main assumptions of the Quantity Theory of Money for the Turkish economy. Using some contemporaneous estimation techniques to examine the long-run stationary economic relationships on which the quantity theory is constructed, it is found that stationary characteristics of the velocitities of narrowly and broadly defined monetary aggregates cannot be rejected. However, monetary aggregates seem to be endogenous for the long-run evoluation of prices and real income. It is concluded that monetary authorities follow an accommodative monetary policy inside the period given the endogeneity of the monetary variables.Theory of Money ; Neutrality ; Co-integration ; Turkish Economy ;

On the links between inflation, output growth and uncertainty: system-GARCH evidence from the Turkish economy

In this study, the causal relationships between inflation, output growth and uncertainty have been re-examined for the Turkish economy. Based on the system-GARCH methodology, estimation results reveal that for the 1987M01 2008M09 investigation period with monthly data, the mutual Granger causality between inflation and inflation uncertainty cannot be rejected in a positive way. For the output growth and its uncertainty relationship, it is observed that the larger the output growth the lower the output growth uncertainty. Some evidence have also been obtained in favor of that an increase in inflation uncertainty lowers output growth and that an increase in the latter lowers the former. Furthermore, an increase in output growth uncertainty is likely to lead to more inflation. A sensitivity analysis implemented for the post-2001 period supports to a great extent these results. Consequently, it is inferred that policies aiming at reducing inflation would lead to a more efficient functioning of the price system, and this would contribute to the real output growth.Inflation ; Output growth ; System-GARCH ; Turkish economy ;

An essay upon the business cycle facts: the Turkish case

In our paper, we try to investigate the main determinants of the Turkish business cycles. Having examined some important issues of interest in business cycle theory, we estimate the business cycle stylized facts for the Turkish economy and compare the estimation results obtained in this paper to some benchmark papers chosen in business cycle literature. All in all, our estimation results give support to the importance of supply side models in explaining the Turkish business cycles in line with the contemporaneous Real Business Cycle Theory.Business Cycles ; Turkish Economy ; Countercyclical Prices ; Supply-Driven Models ;